LTCUSD Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 50 trades in period
-47.56%
Year to Date Return
$498.37
Current Value
32%
Win Rate
$849.34
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
22.8 oversold
20d Trend
-38.7%
5d Trend
-38.1%
EMA20 Dist
-35.1%
ATR%
12.4%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
3
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
2.5/10
Raw Quality
2.6/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 2.6
30-Day Momentum
27
+5.7%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 36.1
Conf: 0.74×
Accelerating (+24 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
36,170
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
126 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$849.34
Current Value
$498.37
Period P&L
$-403.95
Max Drawdown
-95.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.18
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
50
Winners / Losers
16 /
34
Best Trade
+5.69%
Worst Trade
-7.80%
Avg Trade Return
-0.72%
Avg Hold Time
2.5d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$59,301.50
Estimated Fees
$148.25
Gross P&L
$-403.95
Net P&L (after fees)
$-552.20
Gross Return
-47.56%
Net Return (after fees)
-65.01%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 LTCUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 126 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 50 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $849.34 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 29, 2025 7:10am ET | $76.99 | 11 | $852.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 11:20am ET | $80.97 | 11 | $896.13 | $891.76 |
+$39.68 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 6:50pm ET | $81.81 | 11 | $891.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 11, 2026 4:10pm ET | $79.34 | 11 | $864.84 | $860.44 |
$-31.32 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.9d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 11, 2026 4:15pm ET | $79.35 | 11 | $860.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 7:55am ET | $76.30 | 11 | $827.37 | $823.15 |
$-37.29 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15.7h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 8:00am ET | $76.41 | 11 | $823.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 10:20am ET | $80.76 | 11 | $870.00 | $865.77 |
+$42.62 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 11:30am ET | $79.84 | 11 | $865.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 3:00pm ET | $77.42 | 11 | $839.53 | $835.26 |
$-30.51 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.5h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 3:35pm ET | $77.30 | 11 | $835.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 10:25pm ET | $74.05 | 11 | $800.15 | $796.06 |
$-39.21 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 10:30pm ET | $73.86 | 11 | $796.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 3:45pm ET | $71.60 | 11 | $771.70 | $767.78 |
$-28.28 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.3h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 8:10pm ET | $71.73 | 11 | $767.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 5:55pm ET | $75.46 | 11 | $807.70 | $803.77 |
+$35.99 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.8h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 7:35pm ET | $75.10 | 11 | $803.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 18, 2026 6:45pm ET | $72.40 | 11 | $774.83 | $770.88 |
$-32.88 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 18, 2026 6:50pm ET | $72.38 | 11 | $770.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 18, 2026 7:00pm ET | $69.91 | 11 | $744.57 | $740.79 |
$-30.10 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 18, 2026 7:05pm ET | $69.46 | 11 | $740.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 1:25pm ET | $67.35 | 11 | $718.28 | $714.64 |
$-26.15 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 1:30pm ET | $67.65 | 11 | $714.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 25, 2026 3:30pm ET | $65.28 | 11 | $689.60 | $686.09 |
$-28.55 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 12:35am ET | $67.46 | 10 | $686.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:10am ET | $65.07 | 10 | $661.78 | $658.41 |
$-27.68 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.4d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:15am ET | $64.93 | 10 | $658.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 31, 2026 3:30am ET | $62.98 | 10 | $638.64 | $635.40 |
$-23.02 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 31, 2026 3:35am ET | $62.81 | 10 | $635.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 31, 2026 9:25am ET | $60.05 | 10 | $607.48 | $604.37 |
$-31.03 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $60.07 | 10 | $604.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 31, 2026 12:10pm ET | $57.99 | 10 | $583.44 | $580.47 |
$-23.90 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 31, 2026 12:20pm ET | $58.22 | 10 | $580.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 4:00pm ET | $61.34 | 10 | $611.60 | $608.62 |
+$28.15 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 5:05pm ET | $59.59 | 10 | $608.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 11:15am ET | $57.74 | 10 | $589.72 | $586.73 |
$-21.89 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.2h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 4:45pm ET | $58.16 | 10 | $586.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 6:10am ET | $56.28 | 10 | $567.76 | $564.88 |
$-21.85 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.4h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 6:15am ET | $56.31 | 10 | $564.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET | $54.58 | 10 | $547.52 | $544.74 |
$-20.14 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:20am ET | $53.92 | 10 | $544.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 3:10pm ET | $52.17 | 10 | $527.03 | $524.35 |
$-20.39 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 3:20pm ET | $51.04 | 10 | $524.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET | $47.06 | 10 | $483.46 | $480.94 |
$-43.41 (-7.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:15pm ET | $46.18 | 10 | $480.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:30pm ET | $48.66 | 10 | $506.77 | $504.30 |
+$23.36 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:05pm ET | $49.73 | 10 | $504.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 12:50am ET | $52.44 | 10 | $531.78 | $529.19 |
+$24.89 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 2:00am ET | $50.92 | 10 | $529.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 8:45am ET | $53.52 | 10 | $556.22 | $553.50 |
+$24.31 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 1:40pm ET | $54.91 | 10 | $553.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 2:10am ET | $53.21 | 10 | $536.37 | $533.64 |
$-19.86 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.5h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 2:15am ET | $53.15 | 10 | $533.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:40am ET | $53.76 | 10 | $539.72 | $537.03 |
+$3.39 (+1.1%) |
📅 Sim Ended
2.9d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 12:45am ET | $53.66 | 10 | $537.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 1:15am ET | $52.00 | 10 | $520.37 | $520.37 |
$-19.30 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 16, 2026 6:05pm ET | $55.04 | 9 | $520.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 10:35am ET | $53.28 | 9 | $503.71 | $503.71 |
$-19.22 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
16.5h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:40am ET | $53.37 | 9 | $503.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 8:50am ET | $51.66 | 9 | $487.57 | $487.57 |
$-18.62 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 9:00am ET | $51.86 | 9 | $487.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 10:10am ET | $54.50 | 9 | $512.39 | $512.39 |
+$22.32 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 12:15pm ET | $54.48 | 9 | $512.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 22, 2026 8:05pm ET | $52.72 | 9 | $495.84 | $495.84 |
$-19.07 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 22, 2026 8:10pm ET | $51.77 | 10 | $495.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 7:50am ET | $54.50 | 10 | $521.99 | $521.99 |
+$23.60 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.5d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 2:15pm ET | $57.83 | 9 | $521.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:15pm ET | $56.08 | 9 | $506.19 | $506.19 |
$-18.37 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 9:30pm ET | $56.18 | 9 | $506.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 6:40am ET | $54.48 | 9 | $490.87 | $490.87 |
$-17.81 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 6:45am ET | $54.50 | 9 | $490.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 1:40am ET | $52.65 | 9 | $474.21 | $474.21 |
$-19.08 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 1:45am ET | $52.98 | 9 | $474.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 3:50am ET | $55.99 | 9 | $501.15 | $501.15 |
+$24.50 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 5:45am ET | $55.94 | 9 | $501.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 8:55am ET | $54.15 | 9 | $485.11 | $485.11 |
$-18.50 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:05am ET | $53.93 | 9 | $485.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 8, 2026 12:35pm ET | $52.27 | 9 | $470.18 | $470.18 |
$-17.32 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 8, 2026 2:15pm ET | $52.40 | 9 | $470.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $55.04 | 9 | $493.87 | $493.87 |
+$21.28 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 11:45am ET | $54.45 | 9 | $493.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 12:55am ET | $57.23 | 9 | $519.09 | $519.09 |
+$22.68 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.5d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 6:30am ET | $57.35 | 9 | $519.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 10:55am ET | $55.60 | 9 | $503.25 | $503.25 |
$-18.40 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 5:45am ET | $55.94 | 9 | $501.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 22, 2026 4:10am ET | $54.22 | 9 | $485.74 | $487.84 |
$-17.88 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.9d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 22, 2026 4:15am ET | $54.27 | 9 | $487.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 29, 2026 6:50pm ET | $52.44 | 9 | $471.39 | $471.39 |
$-18.85 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.6d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 29, 2026 6:55pm ET | $52.79 | 9 | $471.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 7:30pm ET | $55.48 | 9 | $495.41 | $495.41 |
+$21.60 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 8:55pm ET | $55.10 | 9 | $495.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 12, 2026 7:35pm ET | $53.42 | 9 | $480.30 | $480.30 |
$-17.54 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 12, 2026 7:45pm ET | $53.45 | 9 | $480.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 2:45pm ET | $56.19 | 9 | $504.92 | $504.92 |
+$22.16 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 4:40pm ET | $55.99 | 9 | $504.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 19, 2026 6:20pm ET | $54.28 | 9 | $489.50 | $489.50 |
$-17.91 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 19, 2026 6:25pm ET | $54.16 | 9 | $489.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 5:55am ET | $56.87 | 9 | $513.99 | $513.99 |
+$21.98 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9.5d held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 7:10am ET | $56.94 | 9 | $513.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 11:45am ET | $55.21 | 9 | $498.37 | $498.37 |
$-18.15 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.6h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$498.37
Net Profit/Loss:
$-9,501.63
Total Return:
-95.02%