MARA Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 43 trades in period
-40.74%
Year to Date Return
$3,618.04
Current Value
26%
Win Rate
$6,105.37
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.1/10
Raw Quality
4.1/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 4.1
30-Day Momentum
7
-25.9%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
9
Trades
0.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 8.6
Conf: 0.84×
Steady (+3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,371
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$6,105.37
Current Value
$3,618.04
Period P&L
$-2,487.33
Max Drawdown
-58.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.28
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
43
Winners / Losers
11 /
32
Best Trade
+7.84%
Worst Trade
-5.85%
Avg Trade Return
-1.13%
Avg Hold Time
1.1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$481,001.80
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,487.33
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,487.33
Gross Return
-40.74%
Net Return (after fees)
-40.74%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 43 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $6,105.37 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 31, 2025 3:50pm ET | $8.95 | 680 | $6,086.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 10:00am ET | $9.43 | 680 | $6,412.40 | $6,418.16 |
+$326.26 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 12:10pm ET | $10.36 | 619 | $6,412.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 12:50pm ET | $10.05 | 619 | $6,217.86 | $6,223.18 |
$-194.99 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 1:15pm ET | $10.14 | 614 | $6,222.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 12:50pm ET | $10.65 | 614 | $6,539.10 | $6,539.39 |
+$316.21 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 1:30pm ET | $10.22 | 640 | $6,538.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 11:25am ET | $10.77 | 640 | $6,889.60 | $6,890.68 |
+$351.30 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 12:05pm ET | $10.67 | 645 | $6,882.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 9:45am ET | $11.31 | 645 | $7,291.73 | $7,300.26 |
+$409.58 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.7h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 1:35pm ET | $11.02 | 662 | $7,292.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 3:55pm ET | $10.68 | 662 | $7,070.16 | $7,078.42 |
$-221.84 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.40 | 680 | $7,068.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 12:15pm ET | $10.95 | 680 | $7,445.39 | $7,455.21 |
+$376.79 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 12:15pm ET | $10.36 | 719 | $7,450.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 9:45am ET | $10.02 | 719 | $7,200.79 | $7,205.43 |
$-249.78 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 9:45am ET | $10.23 | 704 | $7,201.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 11:15am ET | $9.91 | 704 | $6,973.12 | $6,976.63 |
$-228.80 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 12:45pm ET | $10.13 | 689 | $6,976.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:10am ET | $9.77 | 689 | $6,728.09 | $6,728.59 |
$-248.04 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 1:15pm ET | $9.37 | 718 | $6,724.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $9.07 | 718 | $6,515.85 | $6,520.37 |
$-208.22 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 12:05pm ET | $9.24 | 705 | $6,514.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 1:05pm ET | $8.94 | 705 | $6,306.22 | $6,312.47 |
$-207.90 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 1:05pm ET | $7.91 | 798 | $6,308.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 2:55pm ET | $8.36 | 798 | $6,675.27 | $6,679.55 |
+$367.08 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 3:00pm ET | $6.91 | 965 | $6,672.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 3:30pm ET | $6.68 | 965 | $6,441.38 | $6,447.95 |
$-231.60 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $7.82 | 824 | $6,447.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $8.30 | 824 | $6,835.08 | $6,835.23 |
+$387.28 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 12:20pm ET | $7.94 | 860 | $6,828.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 3:30pm ET | $7.70 | 860 | $6,622.00 | $6,628.83 |
$-206.40 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $7.68 | 863 | $6,623.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 10:35am ET | $7.43 | 863 | $6,412.09 | $6,417.39 |
$-211.44 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 1:05pm ET | $7.63 | 841 | $6,412.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 9:35am ET | $7.35 | 841 | $6,184.71 | $6,189.48 |
$-227.91 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.5h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 11:35am ET | $7.94 | 779 | $6,185.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 12:35pm ET | $7.68 | 779 | $5,986.61 | $5,990.83 |
$-198.65 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 3:10pm ET | $7.99 | 749 | $5,984.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $8.39 | 749 | $6,284.11 | $6,290.43 |
+$299.60 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.3h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $8.42 | 746 | $6,282.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 1:30pm ET | $8.15 | 746 | $6,076.17 | $6,083.79 |
$-206.64 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 2:00pm ET | $9.14 | 665 | $6,078.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $8.60 | 665 | $5,722.32 | $5,728.08 |
$-355.71 (-5.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.03 | 634 | $5,725.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 10:25am ET | $8.66 | 634 | $5,490.44 | $5,493.50 |
$-234.58 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
55m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 12:05pm ET | $9.23 | 594 | $5,485.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $8.87 | 594 | $5,268.78 | $5,276.69 |
$-216.81 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.6h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:40am ET | $8.40 | 627 | $5,269.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 11:10am ET | $8.14 | 627 | $5,103.59 | $5,110.97 |
$-165.72 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $8.64 | 591 | $5,107.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 11:25am ET | $8.33 | 591 | $4,923.03 | $4,926.23 |
$-184.75 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 12:15pm ET | $9.42 | 522 | $4,917.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 11:35am ET | $9.10 | 522 | $4,752.81 | $4,761.80 |
$-164.43 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 12:05pm ET | $8.98 | 530 | $4,756.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $8.52 | 530 | $4,515.60 | $4,520.65 |
$-241.15 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.4h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:55am ET | $8.92 | 506 | $4,513.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 1:40pm ET | $8.63 | 506 | $4,366.78 | $4,373.96 |
$-146.69 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $8.86 | 493 | $4,367.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 10:20am ET | $8.56 | 493 | $4,220.08 | $4,226.06 |
$-147.90 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
40m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:10am ET | $8.32 | 507 | $4,218.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $8.97 | 507 | $4,549.06 | $4,556.83 |
+$330.77 (+7.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $8.29 | 549 | $4,551.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:55am ET | $8.00 | 549 | $4,392.00 | $4,397.62 |
$-159.21 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 10:40am ET | $7.88 | 558 | $4,397.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 10:00am ET | $8.27 | 558 | $4,617.45 | $4,618.03 |
+$220.41 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 10:00am ET | $7.81 | 591 | $4,615.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:45am ET | $8.26 | 591 | $4,878.71 | $4,880.97 |
+$262.94 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:05pm ET | $8.83 | 552 | $4,874.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:50am ET | $8.56 | 552 | $4,727.88 | $4,734.75 |
$-146.22 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 2:05pm ET | $9.60 | 493 | $4,730.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.31 | 493 | $4,587.37 | $4,591.78 |
$-142.97 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 11:35am ET | $10.73 | 428 | $4,590.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $10.37 | 428 | $4,438.40 | $4,439.88 |
$-151.90 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:10pm ET | $11.74 | 378 | $4,435.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.30 | 378 | $4,272.80 | $4,276.74 |
$-163.14 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.45 | 373 | $4,272.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 1:15pm ET | $11.10 | 373 | $4,139.96 | $4,143.99 |
$-132.75 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 1:15pm ET | $11.81 | 350 | $4,135.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 10:30am ET | $11.41 | 350 | $3,995.25 | $4,003.99 |
$-140.00 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 11:25am ET | $11.18 | 358 | $4,002.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.77 | 358 | $3,855.66 | $3,857.25 |
$-146.74 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.1h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $10.73 | 359 | $3,850.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:05am ET | $10.39 | 359 | $3,729.97 | $3,736.95 |
$-120.30 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 2:10pm ET | $11.87 | 314 | $3,727.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 2:45pm ET | $11.49 | 314 | $3,608.30 | $3,618.04 |
$-118.91 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$3,618.04
Net Profit/Loss:
$-6,381.96
Total Return:
-63.82%