Compendium › Marcus Reversal › MCD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MCD
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 8 trades in period

+0.23%
Year to Date Return
$10,518.30
Current Value
38%
Win Rate
$10,494.46
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-07 11:21:25

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
71.6 overbought
20d Trend
+5.3%
5d Trend
+2.7%
EMA20 Dist
+2.8%
ATR%
1.5%
Range Pos
87%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2

Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026

15
Lifetime
Confidence: 86%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.4/35
Total Return
6.6/25
Win Rate
3.8/15
Profit Factor
0.4/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality 16.9/100
× Confidence 0.86 = 14.6

30-Day Momentum

0
-5.0%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (86%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,325
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-02 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
90 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$10,494.46
Current Value
$10,518.30
Period P&L
$23.84
Max Drawdown
-12.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.07

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
3 / 5
Best Trade
+5.10%
Worst Trade
-3.68%
Avg Trade Return
-0.24%
Avg Hold Time
15.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$172,502.55
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$23.84
Net P&L (after fees)
$23.84
Gross Return
+0.23%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.23%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MCD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 90 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $10,494.46 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 16, 2025 3:50pm ET $314.54 34 $10,694.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 9:30am ET $302.95 34 $10,300.13 $10,375.29 $-394.06
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
16.7d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET $301.21 34 $10,241.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 10:55am ET $316.59 34 $10,763.89 $10,898.04 +$522.75
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
24.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 12:10pm ET $311.68 34 $10,596.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:15am ET $327.38 34 $11,130.75 $11,431.84 +$533.80
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 2:40pm ET $326.12 35 $11,414.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $325.51 35 $11,392.85 $11,410.49 $-21.35
(-0.2%) 		📅 Sim Ended
3.1d held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 10:50am ET $326.31 34 $11,094.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 18, 2026 3:20pm ET $316.46 34 $10,759.64 $11,075.70 $-334.79
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
29.1d held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 9:35am ET $309.45 35 $10,830.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET $312.27 35 $10,929.45 $11,174.40 +$98.70
(+0.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
31d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 9:35am ET $303.68 36 $10,932.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 11:10am ET $294.46 36 $10,600.74 $10,842.48 $-331.92
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 1:25pm ET $293.68 36 $10,572.48 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 12:55pm ET $284.67 36 $10,248.30 $10,518.30 $-324.18
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,518.30
Net Profit/Loss: +$518.30
Total Return: +5.18%
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