Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:07:13

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
39 neutral
20d Trend
-6.5%
5d Trend
-4.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.4%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
56%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

18
Lifetime
Confidence: 89%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.2/35
Total Return
10.7/25
Win Rate
1.1/15
Profit Factor
0.8/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 19.9/100
× Confidence 0.89 = 17.7

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (89%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,209
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
90 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$12,089.93
Current Value
$11,857.11
Period P&L
$-232.82
Max Drawdown
-29.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.01

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
13
Winners / Losers
5 / 8
Best Trade
+7.57%
Worst Trade
-3.59%
Avg Trade Return
-0.02%
Avg Hold Time
6.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$290,358.47
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-232.82
Net P&L (after fees)
$-232.82
Gross Return
-1.93%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.93%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 90 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 13 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $12,089.93 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 19, 2025 2:00pm ET $176.83 68 $12,024.44
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:40am ET $185.77 68 $12,632.36 $12,646.17 +$607.92
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
16.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 9:40am ET $186.33 67 $12,484.11
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 9:35am ET $180.72 67 $12,108.24 $12,270.30 $-375.87
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 1:40pm ET $191.39 64 $12,248.96
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $184.51 64 $11,808.65 $11,829.99 $-440.31
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 11:35am ET $182.96 64 $11,709.44
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET $177.10 64 $11,334.40 $11,454.95 $-375.04
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
14.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 2:45pm ET $180.18 63 $11,351.34
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $181.98 63 $11,464.74 $11,568.35 +$113.40
(+1.0%)
📅 Sim Ended
3.1d held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 12:40pm ET $171.10 67 $11,463.70
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2026 9:30am ET $165.02 67 $11,056.34 $11,160.99 $-407.36
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 12:00pm ET $175.48 63 $11,055.24
🔴 SELL Feb 27, 2026 9:40am ET $169.77 63 $10,695.82 $10,801.57 $-359.42
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.7h held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 1:25pm ET $167.75 64 $10,736.00
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET $162.52 64 $10,401.28 $10,466.85 $-334.72
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.1h held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 12:50pm ET $167.87 62 $10,407.94
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 12:30pm ET $162.83 62 $10,095.37 $10,154.28 $-312.57
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:35am ET $157.20 64 $10,060.80
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $165.34 64 $10,581.76 $10,675.24 +$520.96
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
14d held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $162.63 65 $10,570.95
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 3:10pm ET $157.72 65 $10,251.80 $10,356.09 $-319.15
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.2d held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 10:40am ET $164.50 62 $10,199.00
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $176.96 62 $10,971.52 $11,128.61 +$772.52
(+7.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
7d held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 9:45am ET $176.74 62 $10,957.88
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET $188.49 62 $11,686.38 $11,857.11 +$728.50
(+6.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,857.11
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,857.11
Total Return: +18.57%
Back to Marcus Reversal