Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:07:29

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

31
Lifetime
Confidence: 89%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
8.5/35
Total Return
14.3/25
Win Rate
3.1/15
Profit Factor
2.5/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 34.8/100
× Confidence 0.89 = 31.0

30-Day Momentum

52
+14.0%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
4
Trades
2.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 78.2 Conf: 0.66×
Accelerating (+21 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (89%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,423
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$16,408.68
Current Value
$15,138.45
Period P&L
$-1,270.25
Max Drawdown
-21.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.11

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
16
Winners / Losers
5 / 11
Best Trade
+6.59%
Worst Trade
-3.58%
Avg Trade Return
-0.46%
Avg Hold Time
6.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$470,191.02
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,270.25
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,270.25
Gross Return
-7.74%
Net Return (after fees)
-7.74%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 16 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $16,408.68 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 24, 2025 9:30am ET $485.34 33 $16,016.22
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 1:45pm ET $470.55 33 $15,528.23 $15,976.47 $-487.99
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9.2d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 3:15pm ET $473.58 33 $15,628.14
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 1:35pm ET $458.24 33 $15,121.92 $15,470.25 $-506.22
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 1:55pm ET $458.01 33 $15,114.33
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 11:50am ET $444.25 33 $14,660.09 $15,016.01 $-454.25
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 2:55pm ET $450.00 33 $14,849.84
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 11:40am ET $473.40 33 $15,622.20 $15,788.37 +$772.36
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET $432.00 36 $15,552.00
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET $416.55 36 $14,995.98 $15,232.35 $-556.02
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 12:30pm ET $413.27 36 $14,877.72
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 9:55am ET $400.74 36 $14,426.64 $14,781.27 $-451.08
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.4h held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 10:50am ET $393.15 37 $14,546.55
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 1:30pm ET $412.90 37 $15,277.30 $15,512.02 +$730.75
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 1:30pm ET $416.28 37 $15,402.36
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 10:20am ET $403.73 37 $14,938.01 $15,047.67 $-464.35
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET $398.99 37 $14,762.81
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 10:55am ET $386.39 37 $14,296.61 $14,581.47 $-466.20
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 12:05pm ET $396.89 36 $14,288.04
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 9:35am ET $384.38 36 $13,837.68 $14,131.11 $-450.36
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.9d held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 11:55am ET $382.57 36 $13,772.34
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 11:15am ET $370.56 36 $13,340.16 $13,698.93 $-432.18
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 11:15am ET $370.13 37 $13,694.81
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:50am ET $358.77 37 $13,274.31 $13,278.43 $-420.50
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 12:45pm ET $360.89 36 $12,992.04
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $384.69 36 $13,848.84 $14,135.23 +$856.80
(+6.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 10:10am ET $367.11 38 $13,950.07
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $387.63 38 $14,729.94 $14,915.10 +$779.87
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 3:40pm ET $411.71 36 $14,821.56
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 11:40am ET $432.56 36 $15,572.16 $15,665.70 +$750.60
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held
16 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 12:05pm ET $418.64 37 $15,489.68
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 9:55am ET $404.39 37 $14,962.43 $15,138.45 $-527.25
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,138.45
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,138.45
Total Return: +51.38%
Back to Marcus Reversal