RIVN Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 33 trades in period
-8.97%
Year to Date Return
$5,729.11
Current Value
36%
Win Rate
$6,293.78
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.1/10
Raw Quality
4.1/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 4.1
30-Day Momentum
33
+10.7%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 41.0
Conf: 0.81×
Accelerating (+29 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,866
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$6,293.78
Current Value
$5,729.11
Period P&L
$-564.62
Max Drawdown
-51.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.05
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
33
Winners / Losers
12 /
21
Best Trade
+7.26%
Worst Trade
-6.12%
Avg Trade Return
-0.20%
Avg Hold Time
2.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$348,130.56
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-564.62
Net P&L (after fees)
$-564.62
Gross Return
-8.97%
Net Return (after fees)
-8.97%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 33 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $6,293.78 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 31, 2025 2:25pm ET | $19.73 | 319 | $6,292.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 10:55am ET | $19.11 | 319 | $6,095.61 | $6,111.41 |
$-197.27 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 1:05pm ET | $19.60 | 311 | $6,095.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 10:00am ET | $18.89 | 311 | $5,874.79 | $5,890.60 |
$-220.81 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.9h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $18.78 | 313 | $5,878.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 11:15am ET | $19.78 | 313 | $6,189.58 | $6,202.04 |
+$311.43 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 1:10pm ET | $20.51 | 302 | $6,192.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 3:30pm ET | $19.79 | 302 | $5,975.07 | $5,984.60 |
$-217.44 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 12:55pm ET | $19.04 | 314 | $5,978.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.88 | 314 | $5,612.75 | $5,618.79 |
$-365.81 (-6.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 11:25am ET | $17.22 | 326 | $5,612.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 12:25pm ET | $16.70 | 326 | $5,442.57 | $5,449.27 |
$-169.52 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 1:15pm ET | $16.09 | 338 | $5,436.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 10:10am ET | $16.93 | 338 | $5,720.65 | $5,733.19 |
+$283.92 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 10:10am ET | $16.06 | 357 | $5,731.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $15.47 | 357 | $5,522.79 | $5,524.34 |
$-208.85 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 11:25am ET | $15.17 | 364 | $5,520.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 1:10pm ET | $14.67 | 364 | $5,338.06 | $5,342.34 |
$-182.00 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 1:25pm ET | $14.63 | 365 | $5,338.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 12:10pm ET | $14.18 | 365 | $5,173.88 | $5,178.09 |
$-164.25 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 12:25pm ET | $14.19 | 364 | $5,166.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 3:20pm ET | $13.76 | 364 | $5,008.86 | $5,019.97 |
$-158.12 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.48 | 346 | $5,010.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $14.70 | 346 | $5,087.93 | $5,097.82 |
+$77.85 (+1.6%) |
📅 Sim Ended
6.4h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 3:55pm ET | $14.95 | 340 | $5,084.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 11:50am ET | $14.50 | 340 | $4,929.05 | $4,942.17 |
$-155.65 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.9h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.37 | 284 | $4,933.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 10:15am ET | $16.84 | 284 | $4,783.98 | $4,793.07 |
$-149.10 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
45m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 11:45am ET | $16.57 | 289 | $4,787.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.94 | 289 | $4,605.22 | $4,611.00 |
$-182.07 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 10:30am ET | $15.18 | 303 | $4,598.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 12:40pm ET | $14.72 | 303 | $4,458.65 | $4,470.71 |
$-140.29 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 3:55pm ET | $15.10 | 296 | $4,468.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 10:05am ET | $14.64 | 296 | $4,333.44 | $4,336.03 |
$-134.68 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 10:20am ET | $15.00 | 289 | $4,334.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 12:40pm ET | $15.77 | 289 | $4,556.09 | $4,557.14 |
+$221.11 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.1d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 3:50pm ET | $16.57 | 275 | $4,556.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 11:15am ET | $15.97 | 275 | $4,391.75 | $4,392.14 |
$-165.00 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 11:35am ET | $15.13 | 290 | $4,387.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 1:15pm ET | $15.90 | 290 | $4,609.55 | $4,613.97 |
+$221.82 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 10:45am ET | $16.07 | 287 | $4,612.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 1:00pm ET | $15.59 | 287 | $4,472.90 | $4,474.77 |
$-139.19 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 10:20am ET | $15.00 | 289 | $4,334.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:55am ET | $15.84 | 289 | $4,577.76 | $4,717.56 |
+$242.79 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.9d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 12:00pm ET | $15.41 | 306 | $4,715.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.33 | 306 | $4,995.45 | $4,997.55 |
+$279.99 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.5h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.38 | 324 | $4,983.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:55am ET | $14.91 | 324 | $4,830.84 | $4,845.27 |
$-152.28 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 12:55pm ET | $14.57 | 332 | $4,838.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.57 | 332 | $5,169.24 | $5,175.61 |
+$330.34 (+6.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 12:25pm ET | $15.14 | 341 | $5,161.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $14.66 | 341 | $4,999.06 | $5,013.63 |
$-161.98 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 10:40am ET | $14.97 | 335 | $5,013.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 10:00am ET | $15.83 | 335 | $5,303.08 | $5,303.44 |
+$289.81 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 11:35am ET | $15.35 | 345 | $5,297.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.47 | 345 | $5,682.15 | $5,688.11 |
+$384.67 (+7.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.9h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 12:20pm ET | $16.23 | 350 | $5,678.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.11 | 350 | $5,988.50 | $5,997.86 |
+$309.75 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $16.83 | 356 | $5,993.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 11:50am ET | $17.76 | 356 | $6,324.34 | $6,328.94 |
+$331.08 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 12:00pm ET | $17.11 | 369 | $6,315.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 10:05am ET | $16.50 | 369 | $6,088.50 | $6,102.01 |
$-226.93 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.1h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 11:05am ET | $16.52 | 369 | $6,095.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 10:50am ET | $16.01 | 369 | $5,909.53 | $5,915.96 |
$-186.05 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 11:50am ET | $15.98 | 370 | $5,910.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.47 | 370 | $5,723.90 | $5,729.11 |
$-186.85 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$5,729.11
Net Profit/Loss:
$-4,270.89
Total Return:
-42.71%