Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:07:49

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-2.6%
5d Trend
-2.0%
EMA20 Dist
-1.7%
ATR%
1.1%
Range Pos
54%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

37
Lifetime
Confidence: 81%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
12.7/35
Total Return
13.9/25
Win Rate
7.0/15
Profit Factor
5.0/15
Consistency
7.0/10
Raw Quality 45.6/100
× Confidence 0.81 = 37.1

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (81%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,431
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$13,776.82
Current Value
$14,611.09
Period P&L
$834.27
Max Drawdown
-12.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.27

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
6
Winners / Losers
3 / 3
Best Trade
+7.18%
Worst Trade
-3.20%
Avg Trade Return
+1.05%
Avg Hold Time
18.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$160,058.13
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$834.27
Net P&L (after fees)
$834.27
Gross Return
+6.06%
Net Return (after fees)
+6.06%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SPY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 6 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $13,776.82 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 22, 2025 2:00pm ET $684.38 20 $13,687.60
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 2:00pm ET $680.53 20 $13,610.60 $13,732.61 $-77.00
(-0.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 2:55pm ET $688.77 19 $13,086.63
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $694.70 19 $13,199.30 $13,845.29 +$112.67
(+0.9%)
📅 Sim Ended
18d held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:55am ET $677.43 20 $13,548.60
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $655.74 20 $13,114.80 $13,411.49 $-433.80
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
29.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 9:40am ET $654.92 20 $13,098.50
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 3:05pm ET $634.85 20 $12,697.00 $13,009.99 $-401.50
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.2d held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 3:05pm ET $631.34 20 $12,626.80
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $676.68 20 $13,533.70 $13,916.89 +$906.90
(+7.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.8d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 2:45pm ET $679.01 20 $13,580.20
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 11:45am ET $713.72 20 $14,274.40 $14,611.09 +$694.20
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
14.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,611.09
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,611.09
Total Return: +46.11%
Back to Marcus Reversal