Compendium › Marcus Reversal › TQQQ
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TQQQ
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 28 trades in period

-7.37%
Year to Date Return
$9,755.97
Current Value
39%
Win Rate
$10,532.66
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 12:28:15

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
31.4 neutral
20d Trend
-11.9%
5d Trend
-13.2%
EMA20 Dist
-11.3%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

6
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality 6.0/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 5.9

30-Day Momentum

53
+14.1%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
6
Trades
2.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 71.1 Conf: 0.74×
Accelerating (+47 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,516
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$10,532.66
Current Value
$9,755.97
Period P&L
$-776.68
Max Drawdown
-40.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.04

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
28
Winners / Losers
11 / 17
Best Trade
+7.05%
Worst Trade
-5.80%
Avg Trade Return
-0.18%
Avg Hold Time
2.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$524,337.30
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-776.68
Net P&L (after fees)
$-776.68
Gross Return
-7.37%
Net Return (after fees)
-7.37%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 28 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $10,532.66 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 12:55pm ET $53.84 195 $10,498.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $52.05 195 $10,149.38 $10,183.09 $-349.56
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
14.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 11:40am ET $51.65 197 $10,175.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 1:00pm ET $54.24 197 $10,684.85 $10,692.88 +$509.80
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 1:10pm ET $55.31 193 $10,674.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 10:40am ET $53.63 193 $10,349.63 $10,367.68 $-325.21
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 11:55am ET $54.54 190 $10,361.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 10:20am ET $52.75 190 $10,022.50 $10,028.53 $-339.15
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 11:45am ET $49.47 202 $9,992.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:05am ET $47.83 202 $9,661.66 $9,697.25 $-331.28
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 1:20pm ET $51.87 186 $9,647.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $51.92 186 $9,657.25 $9,706.68 +$9.43
(+0.1%) 		📅 Sim Ended
2.6h held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET $47.72 203 $9,687.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 18, 2026 10:55am ET $50.14 203 $10,178.40 $10,197.92 +$491.24
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 19, 2026 1:00pm ET $48.33 211 $10,197.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 9:35am ET $50.99 211 $10,759.94 $10,760.34 +$562.42
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 9:35am ET $51.21 210 $10,753.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 10:20am ET $49.34 210 $10,361.40 $10,368.42 $-391.92
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
45m held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2026 1:15pm ET $49.06 211 $10,352.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $47.47 211 $10,016.38 $10,032.09 $-336.33
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET $46.80 214 $10,015.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 9:35am ET $49.16 214 $10,520.24 $10,537.13 +$505.04
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 5, 2026 9:35am ET $50.11 210 $10,523.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 12:45pm ET $48.56 210 $10,197.60 $10,211.63 $-325.50
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.2h held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 3:25pm ET $47.65 214 $10,197.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 9:40am ET $45.91 214 $9,824.74 $9,839.27 $-372.36
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 2:25pm ET $49.76 197 $9,803.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET $48.17 197 $9,490.47 $9,526.04 $-313.23
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2026 10:50am ET $46.96 202 $9,485.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $44.75 202 $9,039.50 $9,079.62 $-446.42
(-4.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 9:40am ET $44.73 202 $9,035.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 2:25pm ET $43.22 202 $8,731.45 $8,775.61 $-304.01
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.8h held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 3:55pm ET $44.83 195 $8,741.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 9:50am ET $43.31 195 $8,446.42 $8,480.17 $-295.44
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
17.9h held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 11:20am ET $44.20 191 $8,442.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 9:40am ET $42.82 191 $8,178.62 $8,216.59 $-263.58
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held
19 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 9:40am ET $40.22 204 $8,203.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 2:05pm ET $39.01 204 $7,957.02 $7,969.75 $-246.84
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.4h held
20 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 2:15pm ET $38.16 208 $7,937.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 12:40pm ET $40.85 208 $8,496.80 $8,529.27 +$559.52
(+7.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 2:00pm ET $43.54 195 $8,491.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $41.02 195 $7,998.90 $8,036.90 $-492.37
(-5.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19.5h held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 11:30am ET $43.69 183 $7,995.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 10:10am ET $42.33 183 $7,746.37 $7,787.98 $-248.92
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.7h held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 10:40am ET $47.81 162 $7,745.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 3:25pm ET $50.22 162 $8,134.83 $8,177.61 +$389.63
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.2d held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 12:55pm ET $54.13 151 $8,174.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 12:15pm ET $56.86 151 $8,585.86 $8,589.09 +$411.48
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held
25 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 1:35pm ET $58.24 147 $8,561.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 9:40am ET $61.36 147 $9,019.92 $9,047.51 +$458.42
(+5.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held
26 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 2:55pm ET $62.30 145 $9,033.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 10:40am ET $59.99 145 $8,699.27 $8,713.28 $-334.23
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held
27 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 12:35pm ET $60.71 143 $8,681.52 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:30am ET $63.88 143 $9,134.84 $9,166.60 +$453.32
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
28 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 11:20am ET $64.87 141 $9,146.68 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $69.05 141 $9,736.05 $9,755.97 +$589.37
(+6.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,755.97
Net Profit/Loss: $-244.03
Total Return: -2.44%
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