TSLA Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 31 trades in period
+1.11%
Year to Date Return
$14,929.16
Current Value
39%
Win Rate
$14,764.69
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
16.8
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.46%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.66
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.2
Unsettled
RSI(14)
30.3 neutral
20d Trend
-11.8%
5d Trend
-10.2%
EMA20 Dist
-9.3%
ATR%
3.6%
Range Pos
7%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Jun 23, 2026
27
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
5.7/35
Total Return
14.5/25
Win Rate
1.3/15
Profit Factor
1.1/15
Consistency
5.3/10
Raw Quality
27.9/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 27.5
30-Day Momentum
3
-1.6%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3
Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-24 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
12,054
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-06-23
Trading Days
124 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$14,764.69
Current Value
$14,929.16
Period P&L
$164.44
Max Drawdown
-34.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.02
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
31
Winners / Losers
12 /
19
Best Trade
+7.35%
Worst Trade
-4.47%
Avg Trade Return
+0.09%
Avg Hold Time
3.6d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$867,690.43
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$164.44
Net P&L (after fees)
$164.44
Gross Return
+1.11%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.11%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TSLA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 124 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 31 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $14,764.69 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 9:30am ET | $456.39 | 32 | $14,604.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 11:00am ET | $441.60 | 32 | $14,131.20 | $14,504.56 |
$-473.28 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 1:20pm ET | $454.55 | 31 | $14,091.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $439.93 | 31 | $13,637.83 | $14,051.34 |
$-453.22 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.2h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 1:55pm ET | $434.79 | 32 | $13,913.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 2:30pm ET | $421.21 | 32 | $13,478.72 | $13,616.94 |
$-434.40 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 3:45pm ET | $432.11 | 31 | $13,395.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:40am ET | $418.69 | 31 | $12,979.24 | $13,200.70 |
$-416.24 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.8d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 11:55am ET | $434.81 | 30 | $13,044.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $415.36 | 30 | $12,460.80 | $12,617.20 |
$-583.50 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 12:40pm ET | $418.36 | 30 | $12,550.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 11:40am ET | $405.00 | 30 | $12,150.00 | $12,216.40 |
$-400.80 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 2:40pm ET | $395.85 | 30 | $11,875.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:50am ET | $416.30 | 30 | $12,489.00 | $12,830.05 |
+$613.65 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $412.86 | 31 | $12,798.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 11:05am ET | $400.38 | 31 | $12,411.78 | $12,443.17 |
$-386.88 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 11:35am ET | $403.17 | 30 | $12,095.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $390.92 | 30 | $11,727.60 | $12,075.56 |
$-367.61 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $393.62 | 30 | $11,808.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 10:05am ET | $414.78 | 30 | $12,443.40 | $12,710.36 |
+$634.80 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 10:05am ET | $401.10 | 31 | $12,434.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $386.00 | 31 | $11,966.00 | $12,242.26 |
$-468.10 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $374.24 | 32 | $11,975.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $394.00 | 32 | $12,608.00 | $12,874.58 |
+$632.32 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $380.83 | 33 | $12,567.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $368.52 | 33 | $12,161.32 | $12,468.68 |
$-405.90 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 12:40pm ET | $359.92 | 34 | $12,237.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $378.69 | 34 | $12,875.46 | $13,106.69 |
+$638.01 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $364.39 | 35 | $12,753.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 11:25am ET | $353.29 | 35 | $12,365.15 | $12,718.20 |
$-388.49 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 11:30am ET | $338.92 | 37 | $12,540.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $363.84 | 37 | $13,462.08 | $13,640.24 |
+$922.04 (+7.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 11:40am ET | $344.43 | 39 | $13,432.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 10:25am ET | $361.87 | 39 | $14,113.00 | $14,320.47 |
+$680.23 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 1:30pm ET | $387.96 | 36 | $13,966.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 11:30am ET | $408.67 | 36 | $14,712.17 | $15,066.20 |
+$745.73 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 12:25pm ET | $388.60 | 38 | $14,766.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $373.69 | 38 | $14,200.22 | $14,499.62 |
$-566.58 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 12:05pm ET | $373.80 | 38 | $14,204.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 11:10am ET | $392.88 | 38 | $14,929.25 | $15,224.28 |
+$724.66 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 10:50am ET | $392.89 | 38 | $14,929.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $413.73 | 38 | $15,721.74 | $16,016.39 |
+$792.11 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 3:30pm ET | $425.17 | 37 | $15,731.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 2:25pm ET | $447.24 | 37 | $16,547.79 | $16,832.89 |
+$816.50 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 1:10pm ET | $445.35 | 37 | $16,477.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $429.74 | 37 | $15,900.38 | $16,255.51 |
$-577.38 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.4h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 9:35am ET | $419.17 | 38 | $15,928.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 2:20pm ET | $406.01 | 38 | $15,428.43 | $15,755.67 |
$-499.84 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 10:40am ET | $414.72 | 37 | $15,344.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $442.62 | 37 | $16,376.85 | $16,787.99 |
+$1,032.32 (+6.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 10:00am ET | $436.70 | 38 | $16,594.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 10:15am ET | $422.20 | 38 | $16,043.55 | $16,236.75 |
$-551.24 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 12:30pm ET | $420.90 | 38 | $15,994.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 10:25am ET | $406.31 | 38 | $15,439.78 | $15,682.33 |
$-554.42 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 3:25pm ET | $409.26 | 38 | $15,551.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 11:25am ET | $396.89 | 38 | $15,081.82 | $15,212.27 |
$-470.06 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 11:25am ET | $385.61 | 39 | $15,038.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 3:55pm ET | $405.30 | 39 | $15,806.70 | $15,980.18 |
+$767.91 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $404.05 | 39 | $15,758.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 9:35am ET | $391.77 | 39 | $15,279.03 | $15,501.06 |
$-479.12 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 12:30pm ET | $406.96 | 38 | $15,464.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $391.91 | 38 | $14,892.58 | $14,929.16 |
$-571.90 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$14,929.16
Net Profit/Loss:
+$4,929.16
Total Return:
+49.29%