Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:23:23

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.3 neutral
20d Trend
+0.4%
5d Trend
+2.5%
EMA20 Dist
-0.1%
ATR%
1.8%
Range Pos
31%
Bounce Ratio
2.6×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

24
Lifetime
Confidence: 87%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
6.5/35
Total Return
12.0/25
Win Rate
2.3/15
Profit Factor
1.6/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 27.5/100
× Confidence 0.87 = 23.8

30-Day Momentum

41
+11.1%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
2.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 66.9 Conf: 0.61×
Accelerating (+17 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (87%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,835
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$13,045.50
Current Value
$12,265.99
Period P&L
$-779.52
Max Drawdown
-14.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.11

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
9
Winners / Losers
2 / 7
Best Trade
+9.28%
Worst Trade
-3.37%
Avg Trade Return
-0.46%
Avg Hold Time
14d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$215,025.58
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-779.52
Net P&L (after fees)
$-779.52
Gross Return
-5.98%
Net Return (after fees)
-5.98%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 V Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 9 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $13,045.50 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 12, 2025 10:55am ET $346.67 37 $12,826.79
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET $338.61 37 $12,528.57 $12,587.08 $-298.22
(-2.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 9:30am ET $333.92 37 $12,355.04
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $322.77 37 $11,942.31 $12,174.34 $-412.74
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 10:40am ET $326.00 37 $12,062.00
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $325.30 37 $12,036.10 $12,148.44 $-25.90
(-0.2%)
📅 Sim Ended
19.2d held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 18, 2026 9:35am ET $317.04 38 $12,047.52
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 1:45pm ET $306.36 38 $11,641.68 $11,742.60 $-405.84
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.2d held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 12:00pm ET $311.72 37 $11,533.64
🔴 SELL Mar 18, 2026 10:45am ET $302.08 37 $11,176.96 $11,385.92 $-356.68
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 10:50am ET $298.83 38 $11,355.54
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 12:05pm ET $314.08 38 $11,935.04 $11,965.42 +$579.50
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
27.1d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 1:40pm ET $316.71 37 $11,718.45
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 9:50am ET $306.92 37 $11,355.86 $11,602.82 $-362.60
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 11:40am ET $306.29 37 $11,332.73
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $334.72 37 $12,384.64 $12,654.73 +$1,051.91
(+9.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET $331.33 38 $12,590.73
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 10:05am ET $321.11 38 $12,201.99 $12,265.99 $-388.74
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,265.99
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,265.99
Total Return: +22.66%
Back to Marcus Reversal