Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:18:23

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
79.9 overbought
20d Trend
+11.9%
5d Trend
+9.6%
EMA20 Dist
+7.7%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
96%
Bounce Ratio
5.6×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

42
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
12.2/35
Total Return
12.1/25
Win Rate
8.7/15
Profit Factor
3.7/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality 42.6/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 42.4

30-Day Momentum

60
+5.8%
30d Return
69%
Win Rate
13
Trades
3.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 63.5 Conf: 0.95×
Accelerating (+18 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,738
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$12,081.93
Current Value
$12,863.83
Period P&L
$781.90
Max Drawdown
-8.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.49

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
14
Winners / Losers
10 / 4
Best Trade
+2.85%
Worst Trade
-1.45%
Avg Trade Return
+0.46%
Avg Hold Time
3.3h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$342,607.74
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$781.90
Net P&L (after fees)
$781.90
Gross Return
+6.47%
Net Return (after fees)
+6.47%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MRK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 14 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $12,081.93 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 11:10am ET $120.42 100 $12,042.00
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 12:00pm ET $120.93 100 $12,093.50 $12,133.43 +$51.50
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 3:00pm ET $122.88 98 $12,042.24
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 3:10pm ET $123.10 98 $12,063.31 $12,154.50 +$21.07
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 9:30am ET $121.51 100 $12,151.50
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 9:35am ET $121.24 100 $12,124.00 $12,127.00 $-27.50
(-0.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 9:35am ET $120.77 100 $12,077.00
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 10:00am ET $121.22 100 $12,122.00 $12,172.00 +$45.00
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 9:45am ET $119.17 102 $12,155.44
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:50am ET $118.85 102 $12,122.70 $12,139.26 $-32.74
(-0.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 10:35am ET $116.36 104 $12,101.96
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 11:50am ET $116.21 104 $12,085.84 $12,123.14 $-16.12
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 9:50am ET $117.33 103 $12,084.99
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 10:15am ET $118.48 103 $12,203.44 $12,241.59 +$118.45
(+1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 9:40am ET $112.10 109 $12,218.94
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 10:00am ET $112.85 109 $12,300.65 $12,323.30 +$81.71
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET $113.74 108 $12,283.92
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 11:45am ET $112.10 108 $12,106.26 $12,145.64 $-177.66
(-1.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 12:45pm ET $111.26 109 $12,127.34
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET $111.52 109 $12,155.68 $12,173.98 +$28.34
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20.8h held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $108.22 112 $12,120.64
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 10:30am ET $109.52 112 $12,266.24 $12,319.58 +$145.60
(+1.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 3:10pm ET $109.44 112 $12,257.28
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:30am ET $112.56 112 $12,606.16 $12,668.46 +$348.88
(+2.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held
13 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 9:30am ET $111.27 113 $12,573.51
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 9:35am ET $112.32 113 $12,692.16 $12,787.11 +$118.65
(+0.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held
14 🟢 BUY May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $113.18 112 $12,676.16
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:35am ET $113.86 112 $12,752.88 $12,863.83 +$76.72
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,863.83
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,863.83
Total Return: +28.64%
Back to Professor Mean