Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:18:29

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45 neutral
20d Trend
-0.3%
5d Trend
-10.0%
EMA20 Dist
-6.7%
ATR%
7.8%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

9
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.6/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
2.8/10
Raw Quality 9.4/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 9.3

30-Day Momentum

20
+0.5%
30d Return
57%
Win Rate
14
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 20.2 Conf: 0.98×
Accelerating (+10 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,738
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$5,482.15
Current Value
$5,509.39
Period P&L
$27.27
Max Drawdown
-31.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.03

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
14
Winners / Losers
8 / 6
Best Trade
+3.55%
Worst Trade
-4.99%
Avg Trade Return
+0.06%
Avg Hold Time
9.7h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$155,328.16
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$27.27
Net P&L (after fees)
$27.27
Gross Return
+0.50%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.50%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MRNA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 14 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $5,482.15 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 1:05pm ET $48.33 113 $5,461.29
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 1:20pm ET $48.72 113 $5,504.80 $5,525.62 +$43.50
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 3:10pm ET $49.07 112 $5,495.84
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 3:15pm ET $49.42 112 $5,535.60 $5,565.38 +$39.76
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 2:05pm ET $50.91 109 $5,549.19
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 2:25pm ET $51.25 109 $5,586.25 $5,602.44 +$37.06
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 2:35pm ET $51.37 109 $5,599.33
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 9:35am ET $51.22 109 $5,582.44 $5,585.55 $-16.89
(-0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 1:00pm ET $52.49 106 $5,563.94
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 1:45pm ET $52.92 106 $5,610.05 $5,631.66 +$46.11
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET $53.51 105 $5,618.55
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 10:55am ET $53.40 105 $5,606.99 $5,620.10 $-11.56
(-0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 2:05pm ET $54.07 103 $5,569.21
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 2:45pm ET $54.63 103 $5,627.40 $5,678.29 +$58.19
(+1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET $52.46 108 $5,665.68
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 10:15am ET $54.32 108 $5,866.56 $5,879.17 +$200.88
(+3.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 1:00pm ET $53.91 109 $5,876.19
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 12:55pm ET $51.22 109 $5,582.98 $5,585.96 $-293.21
(-5.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
23.9h held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 3:50pm ET $48.51 115 $5,578.65
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 9:50am ET $47.93 115 $5,511.95 $5,519.26 $-66.70
(-1.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18h held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 9:50am ET $46.28 119 $5,507.32
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 11:25am ET $45.47 119 $5,410.34 $5,422.28 $-96.98
(-1.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 11:40am ET $47.01 115 $5,405.58
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 2:20pm ET $46.60 115 $5,359.57 $5,376.28 $-46.00
(-0.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7h held
13 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 3:15pm ET $43.74 122 $5,336.28
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 3:30pm ET $44.40 122 $5,416.49 $5,456.49 +$80.21
(+1.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
14 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 3:30pm ET $47.16 115 $5,423.40
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 9:30am ET $47.62 115 $5,476.30 $5,509.39 +$52.90
(+1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $5,509.39
Net Profit/Loss: $-4,490.61
Total Return: -44.91%
Back to Professor Mean