Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Signals generated 2026-06-23 18:05:47

Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
16.8
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.46%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.66
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.2
Unsettled
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Jun 23, 2026

15
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
8.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 15.0/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 14.7

30-Day Momentum

46
+6.6%
30d Return
73%
Win Rate
11
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 50.7 Conf: 0.90×
Accelerating (+31 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,560
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-26 → 2026-06-23
Trading Days
20 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$6,875.11
Current Value
$7,489.79
Period P&L
$614.66
Max Drawdown
-55.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.31

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
12
Winners / Losers
9 / 3
Best Trade
+4.02%
Worst Trade
-4.77%
Avg Trade Return
+0.75%
Avg Hold Time
6.9h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$173,020.88
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$614.66
Net P&L (after fees)
$614.66
Gross Return
+8.94%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.94%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 20 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 12 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $6,875.11 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 3:00pm ET $37.06 185 $6,855.18
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 9:30am ET $38.54 185 $7,130.82 $7,150.78 +$275.65
(+4.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.5h held
2 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 2:50pm ET $41.53 172 $7,142.30
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 3:30pm ET $41.83 172 $7,193.90 $7,202.38 +$51.60
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 3:40pm ET $47.62 151 $7,190.38
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $48.66 151 $7,347.66 $7,359.66 +$157.28
(+2.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET $49.14 149 $7,321.86
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:40am ET $47.98 149 $7,149.29 $7,187.09 $-172.57
(-2.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 9:45am ET $45.80 156 $7,144.80
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 10:20am ET $46.77 156 $7,296.12 $7,338.41 +$151.32
(+2.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 11:20am ET $42.66 172 $7,337.52
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 1:20pm ET $41.99 172 $7,222.28 $7,223.17 $-115.24
(-1.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 3:10pm ET $44.11 163 $7,189.93
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 9:30am ET $44.71 163 $7,287.73 $7,320.97 +$97.80
(+1.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 9:30am ET $35.63 205 $7,304.15
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 12:00pm ET $33.93 205 $6,955.63 $6,972.45 $-348.52
(-4.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.5h held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 9:35am ET $29.83 233 $6,950.39
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 10:20am ET $30.87 233 $7,192.71 $7,214.77 +$242.32
(+3.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 3:00pm ET $30.89 233 $7,196.21
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 3:30pm ET $31.08 233 $7,240.48 $7,259.04 +$44.27
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 3:55pm ET $29.32 247 $7,242.04
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 10:15am ET $29.61 247 $7,313.67 $7,330.67 +$71.63
(+1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $33.16 221 $7,328.36
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 11:35am ET $33.88 221 $7,487.48 $7,489.79 +$159.12
(+2.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,489.79
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,510.21
Total Return: -25.10%
Back to Professor Mean