Compendium › Professor Mean › SMCI
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SMCI
Alpaca Tradeable

Professor Mean's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-04-06 to present • 13 trades in period

+1.19%
Last Month Return
$6,984.22
Current Value
69%
Win Rate
$6,902.20
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 12:27:55

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

15
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
8.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
6.6/10
Raw Quality 14.7/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 14.6

30-Day Momentum

25
+1.2%
30d Return
62%
Win Rate
13
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 26.0 Conf: 0.95×
Accelerating (+10 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,752
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$6,902.20
Current Value
$6,984.22
Period P&L
$82.00
Max Drawdown
-55.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.06

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
13
Winners / Losers
9 / 4
Best Trade
+2.87%
Worst Trade
-4.13%
Avg Trade Return
+0.11%
Avg Hold Time
6.3h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$182,833.16
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$82.00
Net P&L (after fees)
$82.00
Gross Return
+1.19%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.19%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 13 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $6,902.20 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 9:40am ET $23.01 299 $6,879.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 12:15pm ET $22.57 299 $6,748.43 $6,770.66 $-131.56
(-1.9%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
2.6h held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 2:45pm ET $22.20 304 $6,748.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 3:20pm ET $22.60 304 $6,871.92 $6,893.78 +$123.12
(+1.8%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 2:05pm ET $23.30 295 $6,872.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 3:05pm ET $23.41 295 $6,904.48 $6,926.23 +$32.45
(+0.5%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 9:35am ET $24.75 279 $6,905.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 10:35am ET $24.98 279 $6,968.03 $6,989.01 +$62.78
(+0.9%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 2:05pm ET $27.18 257 $6,986.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 3:05pm ET $27.18 257 $6,986.54 $6,989.01 $0.00
(+0.0%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 9:55am ET $26.69 261 $6,967.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 10:30am ET $27.17 261 $7,090.07 $7,111.68 +$122.67
(+1.8%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 1:25pm ET $28.34 250 $7,085.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 1:45pm ET $28.57 250 $7,142.48 $7,168.66 +$56.98
(+0.8%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 1:05pm ET $28.93 247 $7,144.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 2:00pm ET $29.11 247 $7,191.40 $7,215.07 +$46.41
(+0.6%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
55m held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET $26.51 272 $7,210.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 11:00am ET $27.27 272 $7,417.47 $7,421.82 +$206.75
(+2.9%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 10:15am ET $28.42 261 $7,417.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 12:10pm ET $27.88 261 $7,276.68 $7,280.85 $-140.97
(-1.9%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $26.99 269 $7,260.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 11:20am ET $25.88 269 $6,960.38 $6,980.92 $-299.93
(-4.1%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
12 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 1:50pm ET $27.55 253 $6,968.89 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 9:30am ET $27.41 253 $6,933.47 $6,945.50 $-35.42
(-0.5%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held
13 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 9:40am ET $27.71 250 $6,927.53 — — —
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 10:30am ET $27.86 250 $6,966.25 $6,984.22 +$38.72
(+0.6%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
50m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $6,984.22
Net Profit/Loss: $-3,015.78
Total Return: -30.16%
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