Compendium › Professor Mean › TLT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TLT
Alpaca Tradeable

Professor Mean's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-04-06 to present • 14 trades in period

+0.59%
Last Month Return
$10,147.27
Current Value
64%
Win Rate
$10,087.54
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:23:20

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
49.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
0.7%
Range Pos
20%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

17
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.8/35
Total Return
3.3/25
Win Rate
7.3/15
Profit Factor
0.3/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality 17.4/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 17.4

30-Day Momentum

29
+0.6%
30d Return
64%
Win Rate
14
Trades
1.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 29.7 Conf: 0.98×
Accelerating (+12 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,739
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$10,087.54
Current Value
$10,147.27
Period P&L
$59.65
Max Drawdown
-6.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.26

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
14
Winners / Losers
9 / 5
Best Trade
+0.32%
Worst Trade
-0.21%
Avg Trade Return
+0.04%
Avg Hold Time
3.7h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$282,278.68
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$59.65
Net P&L (after fees)
$59.65
Gross Return
+0.59%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.59%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TLT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 14 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $10,087.54 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 1:15pm ET $86.55 116 $10,039.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 2:10pm ET $86.68 116 $10,054.88 $10,102.70 +$15.08
(+0.2%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
55m held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 11:15am ET $87.04 116 $10,096.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 11:35am ET $87.15 116 $10,109.40 $10,115.47 +$12.77
(+0.1%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 2:05pm ET $86.77 116 $10,065.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 3:35pm ET $86.71 116 $10,058.36 $10,108.51 $-6.96
(-0.1%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET $86.43 116 $10,025.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 9:50am ET $86.64 116 $10,049.66 $10,132.29 +$23.78
(+0.2%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET $87.03 116 $10,094.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 12:35pm ET $86.84 116 $10,073.44 $10,110.83 $-21.46
(-0.2%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
3.1h held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 12:35pm ET $86.43 116 $10,026.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 2:20pm ET $86.31 116 $10,011.96 $10,096.75 $-14.08
(-0.1%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 10:10am ET $86.88 116 $10,077.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 11:25am ET $86.88 116 $10,078.08 $10,097.33 +$0.58
(+0.0%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 1:10pm ET $86.68 116 $10,054.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 1:40pm ET $86.75 116 $10,063.58 $10,106.03 +$8.70
(+0.1%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 3:50pm ET $86.75 116 $10,062.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET $86.85 116 $10,074.02 $10,117.63 +$11.60
(+0.1%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
17.7h held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 9:35am ET $86.39 117 $10,107.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 10:05am ET $86.66 117 $10,139.22 $10,149.81 +$32.18
(+0.3%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 11:05am ET $86.33 117 $10,101.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 12:10pm ET $86.39 117 $10,108.21 $10,156.83 +$7.02
(+0.1%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $85.98 118 $10,145.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 11:40am ET $85.83 118 $10,128.53 $10,139.72 $-17.11
(-0.2%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
2.2h held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 3:50pm ET $85.57 118 $10,096.67 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 10:05am ET $85.75 118 $10,118.50 $10,161.55 +$21.83
(+0.2%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held
14 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 11:20am ET $85.00 119 $10,115.59 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 1:10pm ET $84.89 119 $10,101.32 $10,147.27 $-14.28
(-0.1%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,147.27
Net Profit/Loss: +$147.27
Total Return: +1.47%
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