AAPL Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 35 trades in period
+7.93%
Last 3 Months Return
$12,012.53
Current Value
69%
Win Rate
$11,129.47
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
69.1 neutral
20d Trend
+5.2%
5d Trend
+6.0%
EMA20 Dist
+4.1%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
69%
Bounce Ratio
8.0×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
32
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
5.0/35
Total Return
10.8/25
Win Rate
7.8/15
Profit Factor
2.1/15
Consistency
6.2/10
Raw Quality
31.9/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 31.7
30-Day Momentum
39
+3.0%
30d Return
58%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 41.9
Conf: 0.93×
Steady (+7 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,804
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$11,129.47
Current Value
$12,012.53
Period P&L
$883.07
Max Drawdown
-13.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.31
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
35
Winners / Losers
24 /
11
Best Trade
+2.59%
Worst Trade
-1.16%
Avg Trade Return
+0.21%
Avg Hold Time
3.5h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$798,040.97
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$883.07
Net P&L (after fees)
$883.07
Gross Return
+7.93%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.93%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 AAPL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 35 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $11,129.47 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 3:40pm ET | $275.45 | 40 | $11,018.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $278.53 | 40 | $11,141.20 | $11,286.26 |
+$123.20 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $274.84 | 41 | $11,268.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 11:30am ET | $273.57 | 41 | $11,216.37 | $11,234.19 |
$-52.07 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 11:30am ET | $273.64 | 41 | $11,219.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:40pm ET | $273.70 | 41 | $11,221.74 | $11,236.49 |
+$2.30 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 2:45pm ET | $276.29 | 40 | $11,051.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 2:50pm ET | $276.14 | 40 | $11,045.60 | $11,230.49 |
$-6.00 (-0.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 3:25pm ET | $264.17 | 42 | $11,094.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 10:05am ET | $264.86 | 42 | $11,124.33 | $11,259.89 |
+$29.40 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.7h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 2:40pm ET | $260.80 | 43 | $11,214.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 3:55pm ET | $261.04 | 43 | $11,224.72 | $11,270.21 |
+$10.32 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 1:30pm ET | $271.60 | 41 | $11,135.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 1:40pm ET | $272.35 | 41 | $11,166.35 | $11,301.08 |
+$30.87 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 2:55pm ET | $273.68 | 41 | $11,220.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 3:50pm ET | $274.46 | 41 | $11,252.86 | $11,333.06 |
+$31.98 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $269.30 | 42 | $11,310.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 11:05am ET | $269.48 | 42 | $11,318.16 | $11,340.62 |
+$7.56 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $261.42 | 43 | $11,241.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 10:15am ET | $264.31 | 43 | $11,365.33 | $11,464.68 |
+$124.06 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 1:10pm ET | $264.07 | 43 | $11,355.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 2:40pm ET | $263.67 | 43 | $11,337.60 | $11,447.16 |
$-17.52 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $255.15 | 44 | $11,226.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 10:40am ET | $257.13 | 44 | $11,313.72 | $11,534.28 |
+$87.12 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 1:20pm ET | $256.73 | 44 | $11,296.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 2:20pm ET | $257.13 | 44 | $11,313.72 | $11,551.88 |
+$17.60 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $258.27 | 44 | $11,363.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 11:25am ET | $255.26 | 44 | $11,231.44 | $11,419.66 |
$-132.22 (-1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 12:30pm ET | $252.29 | 45 | $11,353.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 1:15pm ET | $253.18 | 45 | $11,393.10 | $11,459.71 |
+$40.05 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 3:05pm ET | $253.61 | 45 | $11,412.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 3:50pm ET | $254.30 | 45 | $11,443.50 | $11,490.76 |
+$31.05 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 9:35am ET | $248.69 | 46 | $11,439.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:45am ET | $250.62 | 46 | $11,528.52 | $11,579.54 |
+$88.78 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 1:35pm ET | $247.88 | 46 | $11,402.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 2:05pm ET | $248.38 | 46 | $11,425.48 | $11,602.54 |
+$23.00 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $251.21 | 46 | $11,555.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 10:05am ET | $252.16 | 46 | $11,599.36 | $11,646.24 |
+$43.70 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 2:40pm ET | $253.68 | 45 | $11,415.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:55am ET | $252.85 | 45 | $11,378.25 | $11,608.89 |
$-37.35 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.3h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 1:25pm ET | $250.78 | 46 | $11,535.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 3:55pm ET | $249.05 | 46 | $11,456.30 | $11,529.31 |
$-79.58 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.5h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:25pm ET | $254.23 | 45 | $11,440.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 3:10pm ET | $254.71 | 45 | $11,461.95 | $11,551.14 |
+$21.83 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:05pm ET | $258.54 | 44 | $11,375.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 2:20pm ET | $259.03 | 44 | $11,397.32 | $11,572.70 |
+$21.56 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 2:50pm ET | $250.70 | 46 | $11,532.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:20pm ET | $252.11 | 46 | $11,597.06 | $11,637.52 |
+$64.82 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $256.18 | 45 | $11,528.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 10:15am ET | $257.83 | 45 | $11,602.57 | $11,711.77 |
+$74.25 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 11:55am ET | $260.90 | 44 | $11,479.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 2:20pm ET | $259.97 | 44 | $11,438.68 | $11,670.85 |
$-40.92 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $264.02 | 44 | $11,616.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 11:05am ET | $262.57 | 44 | $11,553.08 | $11,607.05 |
$-63.80 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:15pm ET | $270.67 | 42 | $11,368.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 2:35pm ET | $270.53 | 42 | $11,362.26 | $11,601.17 |
$-5.88 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 3:25pm ET | $272.69 | 42 | $11,452.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $270.98 | 42 | $11,380.95 | $11,529.14 |
$-72.03 (-0.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.1h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 1:05pm ET | $272.66 | 42 | $11,451.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 2:00pm ET | $273.07 | 42 | $11,468.94 | $11,546.35 |
+$17.21 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $265.92 | 43 | $11,434.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 11:40am ET | $267.64 | 43 | $11,508.52 | $11,620.31 |
+$73.96 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.2h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $267.58 | 43 | $11,505.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:50am ET | $269.69 | 43 | $11,596.50 | $11,710.87 |
+$90.56 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 3:55pm ET | $271.91 | 43 | $11,692.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $278.94 | 43 | $11,994.42 | $12,013.16 |
+$302.29 (+2.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $279.65 | 42 | $11,745.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $276.86 | 42 | $11,628.33 | $11,895.98 |
$-117.18 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $281.92 | 42 | $11,840.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $284.69 | 42 | $11,956.98 | $12,012.53 |
+$116.55 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,012.53
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,012.53
Total Return:
+20.13%