AMZN Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 32 trades in period
+8.77%
Last 3 Months Return
$11,775.43
Current Value
63%
Win Rate
$10,825.85
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
22.1 oversold
20d Trend
-18.5%
5d Trend
-17.4%
EMA20 Dist
-14.4%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
29
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
4.1/35
Total Return
10.6/25
Win Rate
7.0/15
Profit Factor
1.9/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
28.7/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 28.6
30-Day Momentum
27
+1.5%
30d Return
55%
Win Rate
11
Trades
1.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 30.0
Conf: 0.90×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,895
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$10,825.85
Current Value
$11,775.43
Period P&L
$949.54
Max Drawdown
-15.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.32
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
32
Winners / Losers
20 /
12
Best Trade
+2.19%
Worst Trade
-1.65%
Avg Trade Return
+0.27%
Avg Hold Time
6.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$716,372.48
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$949.54
Net P&L (after fees)
$949.54
Gross Return
+8.77%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.77%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 AMZN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 32 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $10,825.85 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 2:55pm ET | $205.61 | 52 | $10,691.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 3:10pm ET | $206.91 | 52 | $10,759.58 | $10,893.71 |
+$67.81 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $207.66 | 52 | $10,798.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $206.68 | 52 | $10,747.10 | $10,842.49 |
$-51.22 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 9:40am ET | $204.77 | 52 | $10,648.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 10:35am ET | $206.36 | 52 | $10,730.72 | $10,925.07 |
+$82.59 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:45am ET | $197.31 | 55 | $10,852.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 10:05am ET | $198.42 | 55 | $10,913.10 | $10,986.12 |
+$61.05 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 1:45pm ET | $205.18 | 53 | $10,874.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 2:10pm ET | $205.86 | 53 | $10,910.58 | $11,022.16 |
+$36.04 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $207.80 | 53 | $11,013.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 11:55am ET | $204.39 | 53 | $10,832.67 | $10,841.17 |
$-180.99 (-1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 9:50am ET | $209.40 | 51 | $10,679.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 11:10am ET | $208.71 | 51 | $10,644.21 | $10,805.98 |
$-35.19 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $204.31 | 52 | $10,624.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 10:20am ET | $208.36 | 52 | $10,834.73 | $11,016.69 |
+$210.71 (+2.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $216.01 | 51 | $11,016.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $218.76 | 51 | $11,156.76 | $11,157.19 |
+$140.50 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $216.14 | 51 | $11,023.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 11:00am ET | $216.10 | 51 | $11,021.10 | $11,155.15 |
$-2.04 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 1:20pm ET | $209.45 | 53 | $11,100.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 2:35pm ET | $209.75 | 53 | $11,116.75 | $11,170.96 |
+$15.81 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $210.33 | 53 | $11,147.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 11:50am ET | $209.64 | 53 | $11,110.92 | $11,134.39 |
$-36.57 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 1:50pm ET | $206.33 | 53 | $10,935.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 2:10pm ET | $207.13 | 53 | $10,977.63 | $11,176.52 |
+$42.13 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 11:40am ET | $213.44 | 52 | $11,098.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 12:30pm ET | $213.70 | 52 | $11,112.40 | $11,189.99 |
+$13.47 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 12:30pm ET | $211.36 | 52 | $10,990.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 1:50pm ET | $211.09 | 52 | $10,976.68 | $11,175.70 |
$-14.29 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $206.00 | 54 | $11,124.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 10:50am ET | $207.26 | 54 | $11,192.04 | $11,243.74 |
+$68.04 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:55am ET | $210.79 | 53 | $11,171.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 1:35pm ET | $211.12 | 53 | $11,189.36 | $11,261.23 |
+$17.49 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 3:55pm ET | $206.84 | 54 | $11,169.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $211.36 | 54 | $11,413.44 | $11,505.31 |
+$244.08 (+2.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $208.62 | 55 | $11,474.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 10:00am ET | $210.74 | 55 | $11,590.43 | $11,621.64 |
+$116.33 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 2:50pm ET | $199.84 | 58 | $11,590.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 3:35pm ET | $200.16 | 58 | $11,609.28 | $11,640.20 |
+$18.56 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:00pm ET | $211.81 | 54 | $11,437.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 3:20pm ET | $211.07 | 54 | $11,397.51 | $11,599.97 |
$-40.23 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:15pm ET | $211.48 | 54 | $11,419.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 2:20pm ET | $212.00 | 54 | $11,448.00 | $11,628.05 |
+$28.08 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 2:45pm ET | $221.12 | 52 | $11,498.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 3:45pm ET | $221.16 | 52 | $11,500.58 | $11,630.39 |
+$2.34 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $237.26 | 49 | $11,625.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 11:00am ET | $237.56 | 49 | $11,640.44 | $11,645.03 |
+$14.64 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $247.33 | 47 | $11,624.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 10:50am ET | $246.31 | 47 | $11,576.57 | $11,597.09 |
$-47.94 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 2:10pm ET | $253.16 | 45 | $11,392.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $248.99 | 45 | $11,204.33 | $11,409.21 |
$-187.88 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 3:45pm ET | $249.45 | 45 | $11,225.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $251.63 | 45 | $11,323.35 | $11,507.31 |
+$98.10 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.9h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 1:10pm ET | $255.54 | 45 | $11,499.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 2:20pm ET | $255.25 | 45 | $11,486.25 | $11,494.27 |
$-13.04 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $262.87 | 43 | $11,303.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 10:35am ET | $262.52 | 43 | $11,288.57 | $11,479.43 |
$-14.84 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $258.21 | 44 | $11,361.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:45am ET | $260.53 | 44 | $11,463.10 | $11,581.07 |
+$101.64 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 3:55pm ET | $267.95 | 43 | $11,522.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $272.67 | 43 | $11,724.81 | $11,783.82 |
+$202.75 (+1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 12:30pm ET | $273.87 | 43 | $11,776.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 1:55pm ET | $273.67 | 43 | $11,768.02 | $11,775.43 |
$-8.39 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,775.43
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,775.43
Total Return:
+17.75%