COIN Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 33 trades in period
+8.47%
Last 3 Months Return
$10,411.51
Current Value
61%
Win Rate
$9,598.31
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
13.1 oversold
20d Trend
-42.6%
5d Trend
-24.4%
EMA20 Dist
-25.8%
ATR%
6.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
18
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.3/35
Total Return
5.9/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
0.1/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality
18.1/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 17.7
30-Day Momentum
17
-3.5%
30d Return
64%
Win Rate
11
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 18.9
Conf: 0.90×
Cooling (-1 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,872
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
61 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$9,598.31
Current Value
$10,411.51
Period P&L
$813.23
Max Drawdown
-42.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.14
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
33
Winners / Losers
20 /
13
Best Trade
+6.92%
Worst Trade
-4.84%
Avg Trade Return
+0.27%
Avg Hold Time
3.7h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$688,405.04
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$813.23
Net P&L (after fees)
$813.23
Gross Return
+8.47%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.47%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 COIN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 61 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 33 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $9,598.31 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $159.67 | 60 | $9,580.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $163.57 | 60 | $9,814.50 | $9,832.58 |
+$234.30 (+2.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:05pm ET | $165.27 | 59 | $9,750.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 2:20pm ET | $164.64 | 59 | $9,713.76 | $9,795.41 |
$-37.17 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $162.49 | 60 | $9,749.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 10:35am ET | $162.90 | 60 | $9,774.00 | $9,820.01 |
+$24.60 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 2:35pm ET | $165.24 | 59 | $9,749.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 3:45pm ET | $164.87 | 59 | $9,727.33 | $9,798.18 |
$-21.83 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 12:15pm ET | $169.30 | 57 | $9,650.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 1:35pm ET | $169.55 | 57 | $9,664.35 | $9,812.43 |
+$14.25 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 2:00pm ET | $159.77 | 61 | $9,745.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 3:35pm ET | $159.73 | 61 | $9,743.53 | $9,809.99 |
$-2.44 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 3:30pm ET | $183.05 | 53 | $9,701.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 3:50pm ET | $184.67 | 53 | $9,787.51 | $9,895.85 |
+$85.86 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $175.71 | 56 | $9,839.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 10:45am ET | $176.49 | 56 | $9,883.44 | $9,939.53 |
+$43.68 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 1:25pm ET | $181.44 | 54 | $9,797.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 1:45pm ET | $183.25 | 54 | $9,895.50 | $10,037.27 |
+$97.74 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 3:15pm ET | $183.03 | 54 | $9,883.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $195.70 | 54 | $10,567.80 | $10,721.45 |
+$684.18 (+6.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $206.02 | 52 | $10,713.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $210.62 | 52 | $10,952.24 | $10,960.65 |
+$239.20 (+2.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $199.60 | 54 | $10,778.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 11:20am ET | $197.43 | 54 | $10,661.06 | $10,843.58 |
$-117.07 (-1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 12:15pm ET | $194.99 | 55 | $10,724.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 12:30pm ET | $197.05 | 55 | $10,838.02 | $10,957.15 |
+$113.57 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 2:15pm ET | $196.71 | 55 | $10,819.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 3:20pm ET | $197.97 | 55 | $10,888.35 | $11,026.45 |
+$69.30 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $196.13 | 56 | $10,983.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 10:15am ET | $197.00 | 56 | $11,032.00 | $11,075.17 |
+$48.72 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $205.69 | 53 | $10,901.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 11:35am ET | $203.12 | 53 | $10,765.36 | $10,938.96 |
$-136.21 (-1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 10:00am ET | $198.75 | 55 | $10,931.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 10:40am ET | $201.80 | 55 | $11,099.00 | $11,106.71 |
+$167.75 (+1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:45am ET | $198.86 | 55 | $10,937.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 1:15pm ET | $198.46 | 55 | $10,915.29 | $11,084.70 |
$-22.01 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:10am ET | $185.43 | 59 | $10,940.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 12:30pm ET | $184.60 | 59 | $10,891.40 | $11,035.73 |
$-48.97 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $166.16 | 66 | $10,966.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 11:30am ET | $161.50 | 66 | $10,658.99 | $10,728.16 |
$-307.57 (-2.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 12:55pm ET | $161.40 | 66 | $10,652.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 2:35pm ET | $160.64 | 66 | $10,602.24 | $10,678.00 |
$-50.16 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:50am ET | $172.80 | 61 | $10,541.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 10:30am ET | $174.62 | 61 | $10,651.82 | $10,788.72 |
+$110.72 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:05pm ET | $174.71 | 61 | $10,657.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 2:15pm ET | $175.48 | 61 | $10,704.28 | $10,835.38 |
+$46.66 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 1:05pm ET | $178.42 | 60 | $10,705.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 2:05pm ET | $179.21 | 60 | $10,752.30 | $10,882.48 |
+$47.10 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $165.76 | 65 | $10,774.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 10:25am ET | $166.87 | 65 | $10,846.23 | $10,954.31 |
+$71.83 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 1:55pm ET | $171.76 | 63 | $10,820.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 3:15pm ET | $172.10 | 63 | $10,842.61 | $10,976.05 |
+$21.74 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:55am ET | $189.90 | 57 | $10,824.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 10:55am ET | $192.67 | 57 | $10,982.19 | $11,133.94 |
+$157.89 (+1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:20pm ET | $210.76 | 52 | $10,959.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $200.56 | 52 | $10,429.17 | $10,603.85 |
$-530.09 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $207.38 | 51 | $10,576.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 12:50pm ET | $201.48 | 51 | $10,275.48 | $10,302.95 |
$-300.90 (-2.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.3h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $204.27 | 50 | $10,213.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 10:55am ET | $202.18 | 50 | $10,109.25 | $10,198.45 |
$-104.50 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $199.22 | 51 | $10,160.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $203.05 | 51 | $10,355.80 | $10,394.03 |
+$195.58 (+1.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:40am ET | $191.94 | 54 | $10,364.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 11:05am ET | $192.96 | 54 | $10,419.84 | $10,449.11 |
+$55.08 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:55am ET | $200.04 | 52 | $10,402.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 11:10am ET | $199.32 | 52 | $10,364.48 | $10,411.51 |
$-37.60 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,411.51
Net Profit/Loss:
+$411.51
Total Return:
+4.12%