HD Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 37 trades in period
+7.44%
Last 3 Months Return
$10,414.84
Current Value
78%
Win Rate
$9,693.64
Period Start
PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.
Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
17.3
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.51%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.34%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.65
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.2
Unsettled
RSI(14)
58.5 neutral
20d Trend
+2.0%
5d Trend
+2.1%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
2.0%
Range Pos
82%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Jun 23, 2026
21
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
2.6/35
Total Return
5.6/25
Win Rate
7.1/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
5.7/10
Raw Quality
21.5/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 21.2
30-Day Momentum
46
+3.0%
30d Return
78%
Win Rate
9
Trades
2.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 54.9
Conf: 0.84×
Accelerating (+25 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,914
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-06-23
Trading Days
63 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)
Market Closed (3 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$9,693.64
Current Value
$10,414.84
Period P&L
$721.22
Max Drawdown
-5.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.22
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
37
Winners / Losers
29 /
8
Best Trade
+1.94%
Worst Trade
-1.80%
Avg Trade Return
+0.14%
Avg Hold Time
5.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$725,826.04
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$721.22
Net P&L (after fees)
$721.22
Gross Return
+7.44%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.44%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 HD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 63 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 37 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $9,693.64 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:50pm ET | $331.92 | 29 | $9,625.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $325.94 | 29 | $9,452.26 | $9,731.18 |
$-173.42 (-1.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 10:05am ET | $327.58 | 29 | $9,499.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 10:50am ET | $330.27 | 29 | $9,577.97 | $9,809.48 |
+$78.30 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 11:30am ET | $330.95 | 29 | $9,597.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 2:05pm ET | $328.08 | 29 | $9,514.46 | $9,726.39 |
$-83.09 (-0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.6h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 2:05pm ET | $322.64 | 30 | $9,679.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 3:35pm ET | $321.67 | 30 | $9,650.25 | $9,697.29 |
$-29.10 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 2:40pm ET | $326.50 | 29 | $9,468.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 3:25pm ET | $327.73 | 29 | $9,504.17 | $9,732.96 |
+$35.67 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $323.55 | 30 | $9,706.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:40am ET | $323.73 | 30 | $9,711.75 | $9,738.21 |
+$5.25 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:05pm ET | $324.38 | 30 | $9,731.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 2:15pm ET | $324.55 | 30 | $9,736.50 | $9,743.31 |
+$5.10 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 2:50pm ET | $316.45 | 30 | $9,493.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:25pm ET | $317.02 | 30 | $9,510.60 | $9,760.36 |
+$17.05 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $331.64 | 29 | $9,617.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 11:10am ET | $332.97 | 29 | $9,656.08 | $9,799.02 |
+$38.66 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 3:05pm ET | $336.36 | 29 | $9,754.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 3:55pm ET | $336.67 | 29 | $9,763.43 | $9,808.16 |
+$9.14 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 12:55pm ET | $341.06 | 28 | $9,549.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 1:35pm ET | $341.73 | 28 | $9,568.30 | $9,826.85 |
+$18.69 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $345.15 | 28 | $9,664.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 10:50am ET | $346.61 | 28 | $9,705.08 | $9,867.73 |
+$40.88 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 1:05pm ET | $345.23 | 28 | $9,666.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 3:00pm ET | $344.52 | 28 | $9,646.50 | $9,847.79 |
$-19.94 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 3:35pm ET | $338.04 | 29 | $9,803.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 3:55pm ET | $338.73 | 29 | $9,823.17 | $9,867.80 |
+$20.01 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $338.32 | 29 | $9,811.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 10:15am ET | $338.92 | 29 | $9,828.66 | $9,885.18 |
+$17.38 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 10:15am ET | $333.86 | 29 | $9,681.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 11:25am ET | $334.16 | 29 | $9,690.64 | $9,893.88 |
+$8.70 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 3:35pm ET | $327.44 | 30 | $9,823.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 3:45pm ET | $328.24 | 30 | $9,847.35 | $9,918.03 |
+$24.15 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 12:35pm ET | $326.02 | 30 | $9,780.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 1:30pm ET | $326.85 | 30 | $9,805.50 | $9,942.93 |
+$24.90 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 2:05pm ET | $324.14 | 30 | $9,724.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 2:50pm ET | $324.41 | 30 | $9,732.30 | $9,951.03 |
+$8.10 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $311.61 | 31 | $9,659.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 10:05am ET | $313.52 | 31 | $9,719.12 | $10,010.39 |
+$59.36 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 12:45pm ET | $323.27 | 30 | $9,698.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 1:20pm ET | $324.47 | 30 | $9,734.10 | $10,046.24 |
+$35.85 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $313.74 | 32 | $10,039.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 10:30am ET | $316.03 | 32 | $10,112.96 | $10,119.52 |
+$73.28 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 3:20pm ET | $311.20 | 32 | $9,958.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $306.70 | 32 | $9,814.40 | $9,975.52 |
$-144.00 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.2h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 2:00pm ET | $303.22 | 32 | $9,703.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 3:10pm ET | $303.70 | 32 | $9,718.56 | $9,990.95 |
+$15.43 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 12:40pm ET | $299.90 | 33 | $9,896.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 3:05pm ET | $299.07 | 33 | $9,869.31 | $9,963.40 |
$-27.55 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $299.26 | 33 | $9,875.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 9:55am ET | $301.38 | 33 | $9,945.38 | $10,033.19 |
+$69.79 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 1:20pm ET | $311.59 | 32 | $9,970.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 1:30pm ET | $312.80 | 32 | $10,009.44 | $10,071.75 |
+$38.56 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 2:05pm ET | $316.61 | 31 | $9,814.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 2:40pm ET | $317.26 | 31 | $9,835.06 | $10,091.90 |
+$20.15 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 1:05pm ET | $318.26 | 31 | $9,866.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 3:15pm ET | $318.07 | 31 | $9,860.17 | $10,086.01 |
$-5.89 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.2h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $310.15 | 32 | $9,924.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:40am ET | $312.37 | 32 | $9,995.84 | $10,156.89 |
+$70.88 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 11:50am ET | $309.43 | 32 | $9,901.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 12:35pm ET | $310.39 | 32 | $9,932.48 | $10,187.61 |
+$30.72 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 3:45pm ET | $310.10 | 32 | $9,923.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $311.18 | 32 | $9,957.92 | $10,222.33 |
+$34.72 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 1:15pm ET | $320.76 | 31 | $9,943.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $320.91 | 31 | $9,948.21 | $10,226.98 |
+$4.65 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20.3h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 3:20pm ET | $328.13 | 31 | $10,172.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $334.50 | 31 | $10,369.50 | $10,424.45 |
+$197.47 (+1.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 2:00pm ET | $335.55 | 31 | $10,401.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $331.95 | 31 | $10,290.30 | $10,312.85 |
$-111.60 (-1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.5h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $327.94 | 31 | $10,166.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 11:00am ET | $330.02 | 31 | $10,230.62 | $10,377.33 |
+$64.48 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 3:35pm ET | $324.59 | 31 | $10,062.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 3:50pm ET | $325.80 | 31 | $10,099.80 | $10,414.84 |
+$37.51 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,414.84
Net Profit/Loss:
+$414.84
Total Return:
+4.15%