LLY Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2025-11-14 to present • 38 trades in period
+1.03%
Last 3 Months Return
$8,528.20
Current Value
68%
Win Rate
$8,441.05
Period Start
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Polygon.io (historical) + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Polygon + Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,376
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-14 → 2026-02-13
Trading Days
75 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$8,441.05
Current Value
$8,528.20
Period P&L
$87.17
Max Drawdown
-24.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.05
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
38
Winners / Losers
26 /
12
Best Trade
+1.16%
Worst Trade
-2.77%
Avg Trade Return
+0.04%
Avg Hold Time
7.2h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$620,392.73
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$87.17
Net P&L (after fees)
$87.17
Gross Return
+1.03%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.03%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 75 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 38 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $8,441.05 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 1:40pm ET | $1,027.51 | 8 | $8,220.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 2:00pm ET | $1,029.85 | 8 | $8,238.76 | $8,459.73 |
+$18.68 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 2:35pm ET | $1,023.00 | 8 | $8,184.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 3:45pm ET | $1,023.20 | 8 | $8,185.60 | $8,461.32 |
+$1.59 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 3:45pm ET | $1,032.84 | 8 | $8,262.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $1,036.05 | 8 | $8,288.40 | $8,487.00 |
+$25.68 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 10:15am ET | $1,045.62 | 8 | $8,364.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 10:35am ET | $1,053.75 | 8 | $8,430.00 | $8,552.04 |
+$65.04 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 3:50pm ET | $1,058.88 | 8 | $8,471.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 9:35am ET | $1,063.83 | 8 | $8,510.65 | $8,591.64 |
+$39.61 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 10:20am ET | $1,103.00 | 7 | $7,721.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 10:55am ET | $1,108.31 | 7 | $7,758.14 | $8,628.78 |
+$37.14 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
36m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 1, 2025 10:00am ET | $1,068.55 | 8 | $8,548.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 10:50am ET | $1,071.55 | 8 | $8,572.40 | $8,652.82 |
+$24.04 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 1:15pm ET | $1,054.43 | 8 | $8,435.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $1,049.72 | 8 | $8,397.76 | $8,615.14 |
$-37.68 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20.3h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 9:35am ET | $1,025.62 | 8 | $8,204.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 9:45am ET | $1,020.80 | 8 | $8,166.40 | $8,576.58 |
$-38.56 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2025 1:10pm ET | $1,008.73 | 8 | $8,069.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 2:20pm ET | $1,010.86 | 8 | $8,086.88 | $8,593.62 |
+$17.04 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 11:00am ET | $993.00 | 8 | $7,944.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 9:45am ET | $986.08 | 8 | $7,888.64 | $8,538.26 |
$-55.36 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
22.8h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 11:50am ET | $1,015.34 | 8 | $8,122.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 1:00pm ET | $1,019.91 | 8 | $8,159.24 | $8,574.78 |
+$36.52 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 9:35am ET | $1,049.04 | 8 | $8,392.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 16, 2025 9:40am ET | $1,044.06 | 8 | $8,352.48 | $8,534.94 |
$-39.84 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 11:25am ET | $1,051.44 | 8 | $8,411.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 11:50am ET | $1,055.48 | 8 | $8,443.84 | $8,567.26 |
+$32.32 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 3:45pm ET | $1,060.37 | 8 | $8,482.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 3:55pm ET | $1,056.87 | 8 | $8,454.96 | $8,539.25 |
$-28.01 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 22, 2025 10:15am ET | $1,065.38 | 8 | $8,523.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 12:00pm ET | $1,067.84 | 8 | $8,542.72 | $8,558.93 |
+$19.68 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 2:40pm ET | $1,070.99 | 7 | $7,496.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 23, 2025 3:35pm ET | $1,072.36 | 7 | $7,506.52 | $8,568.55 |
+$9.63 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
54m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 26, 2025 2:45pm ET | $1,072.82 | 7 | $7,509.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 3:10pm ET | $1,074.54 | 7 | $7,521.78 | $8,580.59 |
+$12.04 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 29, 2025 3:30pm ET | $1,083.14 | 7 | $7,581.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 29, 2025 3:50pm ET | $1,080.22 | 7 | $7,561.54 | $8,560.15 |
$-20.44 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 31, 2025 9:30am ET | $1,077.37 | 7 | $7,541.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 31, 2025 9:40am ET | $1,081.20 | 7 | $7,568.40 | $8,586.96 |
+$26.81 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 9:45am ET | $1,068.09 | 8 | $8,544.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:50am ET | $1,058.83 | 8 | $8,470.66 | $8,512.94 |
$-74.02 (-0.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 2:30pm ET | $1,097.61 | 7 | $7,683.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 2:50pm ET | $1,101.65 | 7 | $7,711.55 | $8,541.22 |
+$28.28 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:55am ET | $1,078.84 | 7 | $7,551.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 12:50pm ET | $1,081.16 | 7 | $7,568.12 | $8,557.46 |
+$16.24 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 10:00am ET | $1,071.58 | 7 | $7,501.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:25am ET | $1,079.06 | 7 | $7,553.42 | $8,609.82 |
+$52.36 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 12:30pm ET | $1,067.03 | 8 | $8,536.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 2:10pm ET | $1,066.67 | 8 | $8,533.34 | $8,606.92 |
$-2.90 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 3:10pm ET | $1,029.82 | 8 | $8,238.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,032.51 | 8 | $8,260.08 | $8,628.44 |
+$21.52 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,027.33 | 8 | $8,218.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 10:15am ET | $1,039.23 | 8 | $8,313.82 | $8,723.62 |
+$95.18 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 2:05pm ET | $1,069.10 | 8 | $8,552.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 2:45pm ET | $1,075.30 | 8 | $8,602.40 | $8,773.22 |
+$49.60 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
42m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,087.33 | 8 | $8,698.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,066.58 | 8 | $8,532.64 | $8,607.22 |
$-166.00 (-1.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,056.05 | 8 | $8,448.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 10:55am ET | $1,062.84 | 8 | $8,502.72 | $8,661.54 |
+$54.32 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 2:15pm ET | $1,048.08 | 8 | $8,384.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,019.00 | 8 | $8,152.00 | $8,428.90 |
$-232.64 (-2.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.3h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 12:25pm ET | $1,024.40 | 8 | $8,195.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 1:30pm ET | $1,027.73 | 8 | $8,221.88 | $8,455.58 |
+$26.68 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 3:30pm ET | $1,035.26 | 8 | $8,282.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,043.67 | 8 | $8,349.36 | $8,522.89 |
+$67.31 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,038.74 | 8 | $8,309.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,043.84 | 8 | $8,350.72 | $8,563.69 |
+$40.80 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
6m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 12:20pm ET | $1,090.93 | 7 | $7,636.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 1:40pm ET | $1,098.43 | 7 | $7,689.01 | $8,616.19 |
+$52.50 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 2:10pm ET | $1,026.38 | 8 | $8,211.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 3:40pm ET | $1,019.78 | 8 | $8,158.24 | $8,563.43 |
$-52.76 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 12:05pm ET | $1,052.00 | 8 | $8,416.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 1:30pm ET | $1,052.60 | 8 | $8,420.80 | $8,568.23 |
+$4.80 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 3:05pm ET | $1,031.76 | 8 | $8,254.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 10:25am ET | $1,026.76 | 8 | $8,214.08 | $8,528.20 |
$-40.03 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.3h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,528.20
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,471.80
Total Return:
-14.72%