MCD Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 35 trades in period
+4.04%
Last 3 Months Return
$12,686.02
Current Value
66%
Win Rate
$12,193.52
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
71.6 overbought
20d Trend
+5.3%
5d Trend
+2.7%
EMA20 Dist
+2.8%
ATR%
1.5%
Range Pos
87%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
48
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
18.8/35
Total Return
12.0/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
4.8/15
Consistency
6.2/10
Raw Quality
48.7/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 48.1
30-Day Momentum
14
-0.2%
30d Return
54%
Win Rate
13
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 15.2
Conf: 0.95×
Declining (-34 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,805
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$12,193.52
Current Value
$12,686.02
Period P&L
$492.52
Max Drawdown
-4.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.21
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
35
Winners / Losers
23 /
12
Best Trade
+1.10%
Worst Trade
-1.32%
Avg Trade Return
+0.12%
Avg Hold Time
6.5h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$862,708.08
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$492.52
Net P&L (after fees)
$492.52
Gross Return
+4.04%
Net Return (after fees)
+4.04%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MCD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 35 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $12,193.52 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $322.20 | 37 | $11,921.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 9:45am ET | $324.10 | 37 | $11,991.70 | $12,263.62 |
+$70.12 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:45am ET | $323.82 | 37 | $11,981.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:25am ET | $325.90 | 37 | $12,058.48 | $12,340.95 |
+$77.33 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
42m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 3:20pm ET | $326.62 | 37 | $12,084.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $323.12 | 37 | $11,955.44 | $12,211.45 |
$-129.50 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.2h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 9:40am ET | $325.01 | 37 | $12,025.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 10:10am ET | $327.20 | 37 | $12,106.40 | $12,292.48 |
+$81.03 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 3:00pm ET | $329.41 | 37 | $12,188.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 9:50am ET | $329.29 | 37 | $12,183.73 | $12,288.04 |
$-4.44 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.8h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 3:35pm ET | $334.30 | 36 | $12,034.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $335.18 | 36 | $12,066.66 | $12,320.08 |
+$32.04 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.9h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $332.26 | 37 | $12,293.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 10:30am ET | $332.23 | 37 | $12,292.33 | $12,318.97 |
$-1.11 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 3:50pm ET | $334.24 | 36 | $12,032.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $337.92 | 36 | $12,165.12 | $12,451.27 |
+$132.30 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.7h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 10:45am ET | $338.35 | 36 | $12,180.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 1:30pm ET | $336.14 | 36 | $12,100.86 | $12,371.53 |
$-79.74 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 2:00pm ET | $330.71 | 37 | $12,236.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 2:55pm ET | $330.97 | 37 | $12,245.89 | $12,381.15 |
+$9.62 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $323.82 | 38 | $12,305.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 10:55am ET | $324.30 | 38 | $12,323.40 | $12,399.48 |
+$18.33 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 2:20pm ET | $326.81 | 37 | $12,091.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 3:00pm ET | $328.43 | 37 | $12,151.91 | $12,459.42 |
+$59.94 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $323.25 | 38 | $12,283.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 9:50am ET | $325.57 | 38 | $12,371.66 | $12,547.58 |
+$88.16 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 12:45pm ET | $324.50 | 38 | $12,331.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 12:55pm ET | $325.59 | 38 | $12,372.42 | $12,589.00 |
+$41.42 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 1:40pm ET | $327.86 | 38 | $12,458.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 3:20pm ET | $327.36 | 38 | $12,439.87 | $12,570.19 |
$-18.81 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 3:20pm ET | $316.46 | 39 | $12,341.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 1:55pm ET | $312.27 | 39 | $12,178.53 | $12,406.78 |
$-163.41 (-1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
22.6h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 3:40pm ET | $309.31 | 40 | $12,372.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 3:55pm ET | $310.18 | 40 | $12,407.40 | $12,441.78 |
+$35.00 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $306.27 | 40 | $12,251.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 10:10am ET | $309.36 | 40 | $12,374.60 | $12,565.38 |
+$123.60 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 2:50pm ET | $311.96 | 40 | $12,478.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:50am ET | $312.27 | 40 | $12,491.00 | $12,577.98 |
+$12.60 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 10:30am ET | $307.18 | 40 | $12,287.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 11:00am ET | $308.83 | 40 | $12,353.40 | $12,643.98 |
+$66.00 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 1:50pm ET | $309.17 | 40 | $12,367.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 2:20pm ET | $309.84 | 40 | $12,393.60 | $12,670.58 |
+$26.60 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $306.44 | 41 | $12,564.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 10:50am ET | $307.52 | 41 | $12,608.52 | $12,715.06 |
+$44.48 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $306.50 | 41 | $12,566.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $307.25 | 41 | $12,597.25 | $12,745.81 |
+$30.75 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $308.78 | 41 | $12,659.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 12:20pm ET | $306.53 | 41 | $12,567.53 | $12,653.36 |
$-92.45 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 2:40pm ET | $310.50 | 40 | $12,420.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 3:10pm ET | $310.81 | 40 | $12,432.40 | $12,665.76 |
+$12.40 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 3:25pm ET | $305.25 | 41 | $12,515.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 10:15am ET | $304.82 | 41 | $12,497.42 | $12,647.93 |
$-17.83 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $305.43 | 41 | $12,522.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 9:50am ET | $306.28 | 41 | $12,557.48 | $12,682.78 |
+$34.85 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:45am ET | $310.71 | 40 | $12,428.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 11:45am ET | $309.11 | 40 | $12,364.20 | $12,618.58 |
$-64.20 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 12:55pm ET | $302.90 | 41 | $12,418.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 2:35pm ET | $302.37 | 41 | $12,397.17 | $12,596.85 |
$-21.73 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 3:35pm ET | $300.07 | 41 | $12,302.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $302.67 | 41 | $12,409.47 | $12,703.45 |
+$106.60 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.9h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $302.47 | 41 | $12,401.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 12:20pm ET | $300.32 | 41 | $12,313.12 | $12,615.30 |
$-88.15 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 12:20pm ET | $294.11 | 42 | $12,352.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 1:00pm ET | $294.46 | 42 | $12,367.32 | $12,629.82 |
+$14.52 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 2:05pm ET | $292.79 | 43 | $12,589.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 3:50pm ET | $291.76 | 43 | $12,545.68 | $12,585.53 |
$-44.29 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 2:15pm ET | $287.45 | 43 | $12,360.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 3:15pm ET | $287.72 | 43 | $12,371.96 | $12,597.14 |
+$11.61 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $283.13 | 44 | $12,457.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $285.14 | 44 | $12,546.38 | $12,686.02 |
+$88.88 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,686.02
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,686.02
Total Return:
+26.86%