MCD Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-03-23 to present • 36 trades in period
+1.15%
Last 3 Months Return
$12,585.38
Current Value
61%
Win Rate
$12,441.80
Period Start
PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.
Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
16.8
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.46%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.66
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
71.6 overbought
20d Trend
+5.3%
5d Trend
+2.7%
EMA20 Dist
+2.8%
ATR%
1.5%
Range Pos
87%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026
48
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
18.7/35
Total Return
12.0/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
4.5/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality
48.1/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 47.6
30-Day Momentum
19
+0.3%
30d Return
60%
Win Rate
10
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 21.7
Conf: 0.87×
Declining (-29 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,914
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
63 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)
Market Closed (3 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$12,441.80
Current Value
$12,585.38
Period P&L
$143.60
Max Drawdown
-4.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.07
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
36
Winners / Losers
22 /
14
Best Trade
+1.01%
Worst Trade
-0.73%
Avg Trade Return
+0.03%
Avg Hold Time
9.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$898,195.39
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$143.60
Net P&L (after fees)
$143.60
Gross Return
+1.15%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.15%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MCD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 63 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 36 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $12,441.80 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $306.27 | 40 | $12,251.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 10:10am ET | $309.36 | 40 | $12,374.60 | $12,565.38 |
+$123.60 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 2:50pm ET | $311.96 | 40 | $12,478.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:50am ET | $312.27 | 40 | $12,491.00 | $12,577.98 |
+$12.60 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 10:30am ET | $307.18 | 40 | $12,287.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 11:00am ET | $308.83 | 40 | $12,353.40 | $12,643.98 |
+$66.00 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 1:50pm ET | $309.17 | 40 | $12,367.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 2:20pm ET | $309.84 | 40 | $12,393.60 | $12,670.58 |
+$26.60 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $306.44 | 41 | $12,564.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 10:50am ET | $307.52 | 41 | $12,608.52 | $12,715.06 |
+$44.48 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $306.50 | 41 | $12,566.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $307.25 | 41 | $12,597.25 | $12,745.81 |
+$30.75 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $308.78 | 41 | $12,659.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 12:20pm ET | $306.53 | 41 | $12,567.53 | $12,653.36 |
$-92.45 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 2:40pm ET | $310.50 | 40 | $12,420.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 3:10pm ET | $310.81 | 40 | $12,432.40 | $12,665.76 |
+$12.40 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 3:25pm ET | $305.25 | 41 | $12,515.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 10:15am ET | $304.82 | 41 | $12,497.42 | $12,647.93 |
$-17.83 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $305.43 | 41 | $12,522.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 9:50am ET | $306.28 | 41 | $12,557.48 | $12,682.78 |
+$34.85 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:45am ET | $310.71 | 40 | $12,428.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 11:45am ET | $309.11 | 40 | $12,364.20 | $12,618.58 |
$-64.20 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 12:55pm ET | $302.90 | 41 | $12,418.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 2:35pm ET | $302.37 | 41 | $12,397.17 | $12,596.85 |
$-21.73 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 3:35pm ET | $300.07 | 41 | $12,302.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $302.67 | 41 | $12,409.47 | $12,703.45 |
+$106.60 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.9h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $302.47 | 41 | $12,401.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 12:20pm ET | $300.32 | 41 | $12,313.12 | $12,615.30 |
$-88.15 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 12:20pm ET | $294.11 | 42 | $12,352.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 1:00pm ET | $294.46 | 42 | $12,367.32 | $12,629.82 |
+$14.52 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 2:05pm ET | $292.79 | 43 | $12,589.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 3:50pm ET | $291.76 | 43 | $12,545.68 | $12,585.53 |
$-44.29 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 2:15pm ET | $287.45 | 43 | $12,360.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 3:15pm ET | $287.72 | 43 | $12,371.96 | $12,597.14 |
+$11.61 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $283.13 | 44 | $12,457.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $285.14 | 44 | $12,546.38 | $12,686.02 |
+$88.88 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 1:15pm ET | $282.73 | 44 | $12,439.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 2:00pm ET | $283.24 | 44 | $12,462.56 | $12,708.68 |
+$22.66 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 9:45am ET | $282.78 | 44 | $12,442.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 10:50am ET | $281.76 | 44 | $12,397.44 | $12,663.80 |
$-44.88 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 2:20pm ET | $273.09 | 46 | $12,562.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 3:15pm ET | $273.27 | 46 | $12,570.42 | $12,672.08 |
+$8.28 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 2:00pm ET | $274.57 | 46 | $12,629.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 2:25pm ET | $275.09 | 46 | $12,654.14 | $12,696.23 |
+$24.15 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 3:00pm ET | $281.61 | 45 | $12,672.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 3:05pm ET | $282.48 | 45 | $12,711.60 | $12,735.16 |
+$38.93 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $279.98 | 45 | $12,598.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 10:40am ET | $278.83 | 45 | $12,547.35 | $12,683.61 |
$-51.55 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $282.71 | 44 | $12,439.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 11:45am ET | $281.39 | 44 | $12,381.16 | $12,625.53 |
$-58.08 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 1:30pm ET | $279.11 | 45 | $12,559.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 3:00pm ET | $279.13 | 45 | $12,560.85 | $12,626.43 |
+$0.90 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $279.64 | 45 | $12,583.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 12:20pm ET | $278.39 | 45 | $12,527.33 | $12,570.02 |
$-56.41 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 3:55pm ET | $279.65 | 44 | $12,304.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $277.60 | 44 | $12,214.40 | $12,479.82 |
$-90.20 (-0.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $273.11 | 45 | $12,289.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 10:45am ET | $274.74 | 45 | $12,363.30 | $12,553.17 |
+$73.35 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 1:40pm ET | $275.07 | 45 | $12,377.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $277.25 | 45 | $12,476.25 | $12,651.49 |
+$98.32 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.8h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 3:50pm ET | $277.89 | 45 | $12,505.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $278.39 | 45 | $12,527.33 | $12,673.76 |
+$22.27 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.1h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 3:50pm ET | $283.10 | 44 | $12,456.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 9:55am ET | $283.30 | 44 | $12,465.42 | $12,682.78 |
+$9.02 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.1h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 3:00pm ET | $286.49 | 44 | $12,605.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:40am ET | $285.83 | 44 | $12,576.52 | $12,653.74 |
$-29.04 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 1:15pm ET | $287.04 | 44 | $12,629.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 3:20pm ET | $287.03 | 44 | $12,629.32 | $12,653.30 |
$-0.44 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 9:35am ET | $282.32 | 44 | $12,421.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 10:35am ET | $282.58 | 44 | $12,433.52 | $12,664.96 |
+$11.66 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 12:10pm ET | $273.08 | 46 | $12,561.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 3:35pm ET | $271.35 | 46 | $12,482.10 | $12,585.38 |
$-79.58 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.4h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,585.38
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,585.38
Total Return:
+25.85%