MSFT Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 35 trades in period
-3.46%
Last 3 Months Return
$9,328.82
Current Value
46%
Win Rate
$9,663.17
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
17.3
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.51%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.34%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.65
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.2
Unsettled
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Jun 23, 2026
12
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.3/10
Raw Quality
12.3/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 12.1
30-Day Momentum
11
-2.3%
30d Return
45%
Win Rate
11
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 12.0
Conf: 0.90×
Cooling (-1 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,914
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-06-23
Trading Days
63 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)
Market Closed (3 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$9,663.17
Current Value
$9,328.82
Period P&L
$-334.28
Max Drawdown
-10.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.15
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
35
Winners / Losers
16 /
19
Best Trade
+1.34%
Worst Trade
-1.61%
Avg Trade Return
-0.10%
Avg Hold Time
3.4h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$648,112.06
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-334.28
Net P&L (after fees)
$-334.28
Gross Return
-3.46%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.46%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 63 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 35 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $9,663.17 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $381.88 | 25 | $9,547.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $380.00 | 25 | $9,500.00 | $9,616.10 |
$-47.00 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:10am ET | $372.11 | 25 | $9,302.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 12:35pm ET | $371.11 | 25 | $9,277.63 | $9,591.04 |
$-25.06 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 1:50pm ET | $366.73 | 26 | $9,535.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 3:50pm ET | $366.23 | 26 | $9,521.98 | $9,577.91 |
$-13.13 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 12:45pm ET | $360.89 | 26 | $9,383.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 2:35pm ET | $359.43 | 26 | $9,345.18 | $9,539.95 |
$-37.96 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 1:35pm ET | $371.38 | 25 | $9,284.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 3:25pm ET | $369.67 | 25 | $9,241.87 | $9,497.32 |
$-42.63 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $370.46 | 25 | $9,261.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $370.25 | 25 | $9,256.25 | $9,492.07 |
$-5.25 (-0.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 1:20pm ET | $377.46 | 25 | $9,436.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 3:50pm ET | $373.05 | 25 | $9,326.25 | $9,381.78 |
$-110.29 (-1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.5h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:00pm ET | $392.90 | 23 | $9,036.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 3:15pm ET | $392.11 | 23 | $9,018.42 | $9,363.50 |
$-18.28 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:10pm ET | $425.93 | 21 | $8,944.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 3:25pm ET | $422.85 | 21 | $8,879.75 | $9,298.72 |
$-64.78 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 1:20pm ET | $423.56 | 21 | $8,894.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 1:40pm ET | $425.97 | 21 | $8,945.37 | $9,349.36 |
+$50.64 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 2:30pm ET | $430.64 | 21 | $9,043.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 2:50pm ET | $431.77 | 21 | $9,067.07 | $9,373.09 |
+$23.73 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $417.75 | 22 | $9,190.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 10:25am ET | $423.10 | 22 | $9,308.20 | $9,490.79 |
+$117.70 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 2:05pm ET | $427.08 | 22 | $9,395.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 3:00pm ET | $427.35 | 22 | $9,401.70 | $9,496.62 |
+$5.83 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $410.24 | 23 | $9,435.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $409.40 | 23 | $9,416.20 | $9,477.30 |
$-19.32 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $411.52 | 23 | $9,464.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:45am ET | $417.03 | 23 | $9,591.69 | $9,604.05 |
+$126.75 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:50am ET | $410.85 | 23 | $9,449.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 11:05am ET | $411.32 | 23 | $9,460.36 | $9,614.86 |
+$10.81 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 12:15pm ET | $423.38 | 22 | $9,314.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 2:10pm ET | $421.98 | 22 | $9,283.53 | $9,584.03 |
$-30.83 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $407.79 | 23 | $9,379.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 11:20am ET | $409.94 | 23 | $9,428.62 | $9,633.59 |
+$49.56 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 2:40pm ET | $407.66 | 23 | $9,376.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 3:15pm ET | $408.60 | 23 | $9,397.80 | $9,655.21 |
+$21.62 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $404.20 | 23 | $9,296.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 10:10am ET | $404.90 | 23 | $9,312.70 | $9,671.31 |
+$16.10 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 3:50pm ET | $422.67 | 22 | $9,298.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $415.85 | 22 | $9,148.70 | $9,521.27 |
$-150.04 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 3:55pm ET | $416.71 | 22 | $9,167.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $413.81 | 22 | $9,103.82 | $9,457.36 |
$-63.91 (-0.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 10:20am ET | $415.87 | 22 | $9,149.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 11:00am ET | $418.84 | 22 | $9,214.46 | $9,522.68 |
+$65.32 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 2:00pm ET | $417.77 | 22 | $9,190.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 2:25pm ET | $418.93 | 22 | $9,216.46 | $9,548.20 |
+$25.52 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $411.05 | 23 | $9,454.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $411.61 | 23 | $9,467.09 | $9,561.14 |
+$12.94 (+0.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 3:50pm ET | $425.69 | 22 | $9,365.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 3:55pm ET | $426.55 | 22 | $9,384.21 | $9,580.17 |
+$19.03 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $446.97 | 21 | $9,386.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 11:35am ET | $444.34 | 21 | $9,331.14 | $9,524.94 |
$-55.23 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 12:20pm ET | $425.57 | 22 | $9,362.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 1:25pm ET | $425.46 | 22 | $9,360.12 | $9,522.52 |
$-2.42 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $426.13 | 22 | $9,374.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $422.77 | 22 | $9,300.93 | $9,448.70 |
$-73.82 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 11:30am ET | $411.17 | 22 | $9,045.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 1:30pm ET | $410.07 | 22 | $9,021.54 | $9,424.39 |
$-24.31 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 3:30pm ET | $402.40 | 23 | $9,255.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $403.65 | 23 | $9,283.95 | $9,453.14 |
+$28.75 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $394.54 | 23 | $9,074.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 12:10pm ET | $388.23 | 23 | $8,929.29 | $9,308.01 |
$-145.13 (-1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 2:35pm ET | $398.56 | 23 | $9,166.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 3:05pm ET | $399.30 | 23 | $9,183.90 | $9,324.99 |
+$16.98 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $389.93 | 23 | $8,968.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 11:45am ET | $386.23 | 23 | $8,883.29 | $9,239.78 |
$-85.21 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $374.60 | 24 | $8,990.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $378.31 | 24 | $9,079.44 | $9,328.82 |
+$89.04 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,328.82
Net Profit/Loss:
$-671.18
Total Return:
-6.71%