PANW Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 36 trades in period
-2.09%
Last 3 Months Return
$8,650.81
Current Value
56%
Win Rate
$8,835.61
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
18.4 oversold
20d Trend
-19.1%
5d Trend
-12.6%
EMA20 Dist
-11.6%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
10
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.1/10
Raw Quality
10.2/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 10.2
30-Day Momentum
13
-0.3%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
14
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 13.8
Conf: 0.98×
Steady (+3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,849
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$8,835.61
Current Value
$8,650.81
Period P&L
$-184.82
Max Drawdown
-24.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.11
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
36
Winners / Losers
20 /
16
Best Trade
+2.42%
Worst Trade
-5.78%
Avg Trade Return
-0.16%
Avg Hold Time
6.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$633,488.76
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-184.82
Net P&L (after fees)
$-184.82
Gross Return
-2.09%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.09%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 PANW Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 36 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $8,835.61 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 1:05pm ET | $160.38 | 57 | $9,141.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $156.65 | 57 | $8,929.05 | $8,986.68 |
$-212.61 (-2.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20.5h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:25pm ET | $165.27 | 54 | $8,924.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 1:55pm ET | $166.48 | 54 | $8,989.92 | $9,052.02 |
+$65.34 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $164.81 | 54 | $8,899.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 11:05am ET | $162.04 | 54 | $8,750.16 | $8,902.44 |
$-149.58 (-1.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 1:55pm ET | $153.25 | 58 | $8,888.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 3:40pm ET | $151.92 | 58 | $8,811.53 | $8,825.47 |
$-76.97 (-0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 3:55pm ET | $150.76 | 58 | $8,744.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $150.12 | 58 | $8,706.79 | $8,788.18 |
$-37.29 (-0.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $147.64 | 59 | $8,710.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 11:45am ET | $145.55 | 59 | $8,587.45 | $8,664.87 |
$-123.31 (-1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 12:40pm ET | $140.41 | 61 | $8,565.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 1:40pm ET | $141.56 | 61 | $8,635.16 | $8,734.72 |
+$69.85 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 3:35pm ET | $144.45 | 60 | $8,666.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $145.55 | 60 | $8,733.00 | $8,800.96 |
+$66.24 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.9h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $146.90 | 59 | $8,667.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 10:35am ET | $147.22 | 59 | $8,685.98 | $8,819.69 |
+$18.73 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $147.86 | 59 | $8,723.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $151.44 | 59 | $8,934.96 | $9,030.91 |
+$211.22 (+2.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 3:55pm ET | $158.82 | 56 | $8,893.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $161.07 | 56 | $9,019.92 | $9,156.91 |
+$126.00 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.7h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:45am ET | $161.64 | 56 | $9,051.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 10:25am ET | $163.05 | 56 | $9,131.08 | $9,236.15 |
+$79.24 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 3:05pm ET | $163.95 | 56 | $9,180.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 3:20pm ET | $165.19 | 56 | $9,250.64 | $9,305.80 |
+$69.65 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 11:15am ET | $164.01 | 56 | $9,184.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 12:55pm ET | $164.58 | 56 | $9,216.48 | $9,337.72 |
+$31.92 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 1:45pm ET | $166.79 | 55 | $9,173.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 2:35pm ET | $167.51 | 55 | $9,213.05 | $9,377.32 |
+$39.60 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $167.74 | 55 | $9,225.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 9:35am ET | $169.75 | 55 | $9,336.25 | $9,487.73 |
+$110.41 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $168.37 | 56 | $9,428.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 12:30pm ET | $164.62 | 56 | $9,218.44 | $9,277.39 |
$-210.34 (-2.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $164.36 | 56 | $9,204.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $162.00 | 56 | $9,072.00 | $9,145.23 |
$-132.16 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:15am ET | $156.70 | 58 | $9,088.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 12:40pm ET | $155.96 | 58 | $9,045.68 | $9,102.31 |
$-42.92 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $156.37 | 58 | $9,069.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $147.33 | 58 | $8,545.14 | $8,577.99 |
$-524.32 (-5.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 2:45pm ET | $154.01 | 55 | $8,470.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:45pm ET | $154.10 | 55 | $8,475.50 | $8,582.94 |
+$4.95 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:50am ET | $158.17 | 54 | $8,541.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 10:15am ET | $159.96 | 54 | $8,637.57 | $8,679.33 |
+$96.39 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $161.72 | 53 | $8,571.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:55am ET | $162.57 | 53 | $8,616.21 | $8,724.38 |
+$45.05 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 2:00pm ET | $161.63 | 53 | $8,566.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 2:10pm ET | $162.40 | 53 | $8,607.20 | $8,765.19 |
+$40.81 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $169.73 | 51 | $8,656.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 11:40am ET | $167.57 | 51 | $8,546.07 | $8,655.03 |
$-110.16 (-1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 1:55pm ET | $153.31 | 56 | $8,585.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 3:00pm ET | $154.22 | 56 | $8,636.32 | $8,705.99 |
+$50.96 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 1:25pm ET | $160.71 | 54 | $8,678.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 3:15pm ET | $160.31 | 54 | $8,656.73 | $8,684.29 |
$-21.70 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 1:15pm ET | $166.46 | 52 | $8,656.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 3:05pm ET | $166.41 | 52 | $8,653.19 | $8,681.30 |
$-2.99 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $166.61 | 52 | $8,663.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $168.24 | 52 | $8,748.62 | $8,766.20 |
+$84.90 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 1:20pm ET | $174.36 | 50 | $8,718.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 2:25pm ET | $174.98 | 50 | $8,749.00 | $8,797.20 |
+$31.00 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $173.73 | 50 | $8,686.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $172.88 | 50 | $8,644.00 | $8,754.70 |
$-42.50 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $177.16 | 49 | $8,681.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $176.68 | 49 | $8,657.32 | $8,730.93 |
$-23.77 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 3:45pm ET | $182.13 | 47 | $8,560.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $179.52 | 47 | $8,437.44 | $8,608.26 |
$-122.67 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $179.08 | 48 | $8,595.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 10:50am ET | $177.25 | 48 | $8,508.12 | $8,520.54 |
$-87.72 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 3:45pm ET | $181.83 | 46 | $8,364.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $183.87 | 46 | $8,458.02 | $8,614.38 |
+$93.84 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $182.76 | 47 | $8,589.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 10:35am ET | $183.54 | 47 | $8,626.15 | $8,650.81 |
+$36.43 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,650.81
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,349.19
Total Return:
-13.49%