SMCI Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-03-23 to present • 37 trades in period
+7.51%
Last 3 Months Return
$7,489.79
Current Value
70%
Win Rate
$6,966.55
Period Start
PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.
Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
16.8
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.46%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.66
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.2
Unsettled
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Jun 23, 2026
15
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
8.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality
15.0/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 14.7
30-Day Momentum
46
+6.6%
30d Return
73%
Win Rate
11
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 50.7
Conf: 0.90×
Accelerating (+31 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-23
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)
Market Closed (3 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$6,966.55
Current Value
$7,489.79
Period P&L
$523.22
Max Drawdown
-55.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.01
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
37
Winners / Losers
26 /
11
Best Trade
+4.02%
Worst Trade
-8.53%
Avg Trade Return
+0.02%
Avg Hold Time
7.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$519,698.51
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$523.22
Net P&L (after fees)
$523.22
Gross Return
+7.51%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.51%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 37 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $6,966.55 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 1:55pm ET | $21.44 | 350 | $7,505.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:40am ET | $19.61 | 350 | $6,865.25 | $6,880.40 |
$-640.50 (-8.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 10:25am ET | $21.12 | 325 | $6,864.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 11:00am ET | $21.62 | 325 | $7,026.50 | $7,042.90 |
+$162.50 (+2.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $23.41 | 300 | $7,023.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 1:10pm ET | $22.40 | 300 | $6,718.50 | $6,738.40 |
$-304.50 (-4.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.7h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 3:10pm ET | $20.82 | 323 | $6,724.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:55pm ET | $21.09 | 323 | $6,813.68 | $6,827.22 |
+$88.82 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 11:30am ET | $22.75 | 300 | $6,826.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 12:10pm ET | $23.00 | 300 | $6,901.50 | $6,902.22 |
+$75.00 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:40am ET | $23.01 | 299 | $6,879.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 12:15pm ET | $22.57 | 299 | $6,748.43 | $6,770.66 |
$-131.56 (-1.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.6h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 2:45pm ET | $22.20 | 304 | $6,748.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:20pm ET | $22.60 | 304 | $6,871.92 | $6,893.78 |
+$123.12 (+1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 2:05pm ET | $23.30 | 295 | $6,872.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 3:05pm ET | $23.41 | 295 | $6,904.48 | $6,926.23 |
+$32.45 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $24.75 | 279 | $6,905.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 10:35am ET | $24.98 | 279 | $6,968.03 | $6,989.01 |
+$62.78 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:05pm ET | $27.18 | 257 | $6,986.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 3:05pm ET | $27.18 | 257 | $6,986.54 | $6,989.01 |
$0.00 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:55am ET | $26.69 | 261 | $6,967.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 10:30am ET | $27.17 | 261 | $7,090.07 | $7,111.68 |
+$122.67 (+1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:25pm ET | $28.34 | 250 | $7,085.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 1:45pm ET | $28.57 | 250 | $7,142.48 | $7,168.66 |
+$56.98 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 1:05pm ET | $28.93 | 247 | $7,144.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 2:00pm ET | $29.11 | 247 | $7,191.40 | $7,215.07 |
+$46.41 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.51 | 272 | $7,210.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 11:00am ET | $27.27 | 272 | $7,417.47 | $7,421.82 |
+$206.75 (+2.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 10:15am ET | $28.42 | 261 | $7,417.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 12:10pm ET | $27.88 | 261 | $7,276.68 | $7,280.85 |
$-140.97 (-1.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.99 | 269 | $7,260.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 11:20am ET | $25.88 | 269 | $6,960.38 | $6,980.92 |
$-299.93 (-4.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 1:50pm ET | $27.55 | 253 | $6,968.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $27.41 | 253 | $6,933.47 | $6,945.50 |
$-35.42 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $27.71 | 250 | $6,927.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 10:30am ET | $27.86 | 250 | $6,966.25 | $6,984.22 |
+$38.72 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 12:00pm ET | $34.38 | 203 | $6,979.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 2:00pm ET | $33.53 | 203 | $6,806.59 | $6,811.47 |
$-172.75 (-2.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 3:30pm ET | $34.66 | 196 | $6,793.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 3:40pm ET | $34.96 | 196 | $6,852.16 | $6,870.27 |
+$58.80 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $33.00 | 208 | $6,864.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 1:05pm ET | $31.65 | 208 | $6,583.20 | $6,589.47 |
$-280.80 (-4.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.6h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 3:50pm ET | $32.06 | 205 | $6,571.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 9:45am ET | $32.35 | 205 | $6,630.73 | $6,648.92 |
+$59.45 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.9h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 9:45am ET | $31.07 | 213 | $6,617.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 10:55am ET | $31.36 | 213 | $6,680.53 | $6,711.54 |
+$62.62 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 2:25pm ET | $29.98 | 223 | $6,685.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 3:05pm ET | $30.53 | 223 | $6,808.19 | $6,834.19 |
+$122.65 (+1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 2:40pm ET | $33.32 | 205 | $6,830.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 3:30pm ET | $33.52 | 205 | $6,871.52 | $6,875.13 |
+$40.94 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 3:00pm ET | $37.06 | 185 | $6,855.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $38.54 | 185 | $7,130.82 | $7,150.78 |
+$275.65 (+4.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.5h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 2:50pm ET | $41.53 | 172 | $7,142.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 3:30pm ET | $41.83 | 172 | $7,193.90 | $7,202.38 |
+$51.60 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 3:40pm ET | $47.62 | 151 | $7,190.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.66 | 151 | $7,347.66 | $7,359.66 |
+$157.28 (+2.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $49.14 | 149 | $7,321.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:40am ET | $47.98 | 149 | $7,149.29 | $7,187.09 |
$-172.57 (-2.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 9:45am ET | $45.80 | 156 | $7,144.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 10:20am ET | $46.77 | 156 | $7,296.12 | $7,338.41 |
+$151.32 (+2.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 11:20am ET | $42.66 | 172 | $7,337.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 1:20pm ET | $41.99 | 172 | $7,222.28 | $7,223.17 |
$-115.24 (-1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 3:10pm ET | $44.11 | 163 | $7,189.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.71 | 163 | $7,287.73 | $7,320.97 |
+$97.80 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $35.63 | 205 | $7,304.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 12:00pm ET | $33.93 | 205 | $6,955.63 | $6,972.45 |
$-348.52 (-4.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.5h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $29.83 | 233 | $6,950.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 10:20am ET | $30.87 | 233 | $7,192.71 | $7,214.77 |
+$242.32 (+3.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 3:00pm ET | $30.89 | 233 | $7,196.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 3:30pm ET | $31.08 | 233 | $7,240.48 | $7,259.04 |
+$44.27 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $29.32 | 247 | $7,242.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 10:15am ET | $29.61 | 247 | $7,313.67 | $7,330.67 |
+$71.63 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $33.16 | 221 | $7,328.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 11:35am ET | $33.88 | 221 | $7,487.48 | $7,489.79 |
+$159.12 (+2.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$7,489.79
Net Profit/Loss:
$-2,510.21
Total Return:
-25.10%