SMCI Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 34 trades in period
-12.44%
Last 3 Months Return
$6,984.22
Current Value
53%
Win Rate
$7,976.30
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
15
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
8.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
6.6/10
Raw Quality
14.7/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 14.6
30-Day Momentum
25
+1.2%
30d Return
62%
Win Rate
13
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 26.0
Conf: 0.95×
Accelerating (+10 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,895
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$7,976.30
Current Value
$6,984.22
Period P&L
$-992.10
Max Drawdown
-55.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.16
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
34
Winners / Losers
18 /
16
Best Trade
+2.87%
Worst Trade
-8.53%
Avg Trade Return
-0.36%
Avg Hold Time
6.2h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$502,353.08
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-992.10
Net P&L (after fees)
$-992.10
Gross Return
-12.44%
Net Return (after fees)
-12.44%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 34 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $7,976.30 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $32.86 | 242 | $7,952.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:40am ET | $33.76 | 242 | $8,168.71 | $8,192.91 |
+$216.59 (+2.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:25pm ET | $33.75 | 242 | $8,167.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 9:40am ET | $33.41 | 242 | $8,085.22 | $8,110.63 |
$-82.28 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $29.97 | 270 | $8,090.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 10:55am ET | $30.09 | 270 | $8,124.30 | $8,144.38 |
+$33.75 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 1:20pm ET | $30.15 | 270 | $8,140.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 3:40pm ET | $29.70 | 270 | $8,019.00 | $8,022.88 |
$-121.50 (-1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 12:15pm ET | $32.00 | 250 | $8,000.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 1:35pm ET | $31.93 | 250 | $7,982.50 | $8,005.38 |
$-17.50 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $30.45 | 262 | $7,977.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $30.81 | 262 | $8,072.22 | $8,099.70 |
+$94.32 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $33.07 | 244 | $8,069.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 11:15am ET | $31.86 | 244 | $7,773.84 | $7,804.46 |
$-295.24 (-3.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 11:45am ET | $32.22 | 242 | $7,797.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 12:30pm ET | $32.51 | 242 | $7,868.63 | $7,875.83 |
+$71.37 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $30.78 | 255 | $7,850.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $30.68 | 255 | $7,824.67 | $7,850.33 |
$-25.50 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 12:15pm ET | $32.74 | 239 | $7,824.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 2:00pm ET | $31.91 | 239 | $7,626.49 | $7,651.96 |
$-198.37 (-2.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 3:10pm ET | $31.49 | 243 | $7,650.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 3:20pm ET | $31.26 | 243 | $7,596.06 | $7,597.16 |
$-54.80 (-0.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 2:10pm ET | $31.84 | 238 | $7,577.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 3:15pm ET | $32.06 | 238 | $7,630.28 | $7,649.52 |
+$52.36 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:45am ET | $31.35 | 244 | $7,649.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 9:50am ET | $30.99 | 244 | $7,561.56 | $7,561.68 |
$-87.84 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 10:55am ET | $30.53 | 247 | $7,542.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 12:35pm ET | $30.55 | 247 | $7,544.62 | $7,564.15 |
+$2.47 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 11:25am ET | $31.98 | 236 | $7,546.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 1:20pm ET | $31.87 | 236 | $7,521.30 | $7,539.35 |
$-24.80 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 2:50pm ET | $30.56 | 246 | $7,516.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 10:00am ET | $30.48 | 246 | $7,498.08 | $7,520.90 |
$-18.45 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.2h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 1:55pm ET | $21.44 | 350 | $7,505.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:40am ET | $19.61 | 350 | $6,865.25 | $6,880.40 |
$-640.50 (-8.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 10:25am ET | $21.12 | 325 | $6,864.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 11:00am ET | $21.62 | 325 | $7,026.50 | $7,042.90 |
+$162.50 (+2.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $23.41 | 300 | $7,023.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 1:10pm ET | $22.40 | 300 | $6,718.50 | $6,738.40 |
$-304.50 (-4.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.7h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 3:10pm ET | $20.82 | 323 | $6,724.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:55pm ET | $21.09 | 323 | $6,813.68 | $6,827.22 |
+$88.82 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 11:30am ET | $22.75 | 300 | $6,826.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 12:10pm ET | $23.00 | 300 | $6,901.50 | $6,902.22 |
+$75.00 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:40am ET | $23.01 | 299 | $6,879.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 12:15pm ET | $22.57 | 299 | $6,748.43 | $6,770.66 |
$-131.56 (-1.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.6h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 2:45pm ET | $22.20 | 304 | $6,748.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:20pm ET | $22.60 | 304 | $6,871.92 | $6,893.78 |
+$123.12 (+1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 2:05pm ET | $23.30 | 295 | $6,872.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 3:05pm ET | $23.41 | 295 | $6,904.48 | $6,926.23 |
+$32.45 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $24.75 | 279 | $6,905.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 10:35am ET | $24.98 | 279 | $6,968.03 | $6,989.01 |
+$62.78 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:05pm ET | $27.18 | 257 | $6,986.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 3:05pm ET | $27.18 | 257 | $6,986.54 | $6,989.01 |
$0.00 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:55am ET | $26.69 | 261 | $6,967.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 10:30am ET | $27.17 | 261 | $7,090.07 | $7,111.68 |
+$122.67 (+1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:25pm ET | $28.34 | 250 | $7,085.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 1:45pm ET | $28.57 | 250 | $7,142.48 | $7,168.66 |
+$56.98 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 1:05pm ET | $28.93 | 247 | $7,144.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 2:00pm ET | $29.11 | 247 | $7,191.40 | $7,215.07 |
+$46.41 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.51 | 272 | $7,210.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 11:00am ET | $27.27 | 272 | $7,417.47 | $7,421.82 |
+$206.75 (+2.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 10:15am ET | $28.42 | 261 | $7,417.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 12:10pm ET | $27.88 | 261 | $7,276.68 | $7,280.85 |
$-140.97 (-1.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.99 | 269 | $7,260.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 11:20am ET | $25.88 | 269 | $6,960.38 | $6,980.92 |
$-299.93 (-4.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 1:50pm ET | $27.55 | 253 | $6,968.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $27.41 | 253 | $6,933.47 | $6,945.50 |
$-35.42 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $27.71 | 250 | $6,927.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 10:30am ET | $27.86 | 250 | $6,966.25 | $6,984.22 |
+$38.72 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$6,984.22
Net Profit/Loss:
$-3,015.78
Total Return:
-30.16%