TLT Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2025-11-14 to present • 39 trades in period
+0.17%
Last 3 Months Return
$10,139.70
Current Value
56%
Win Rate
$10,121.92
Period Start
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Polygon.io (historical) + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Polygon + Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
10,516
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-14 → 2026-02-13
Trading Days
75 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$10,121.92
Current Value
$10,139.70
Period P&L
$17.71
Max Drawdown
-6.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.02
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
39
Winners / Losers
22 /
17
Best Trade
+0.42%
Worst Trade
-0.38%
Avg Trade Return
+0.00%
Avg Hold Time
3.7h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$789,795.97
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$17.71
Net P&L (after fees)
$17.71
Gross Return
+0.17%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.17%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TLT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 75 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 39 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $10,121.92 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 12:00pm ET | $89.01 | 113 | $10,057.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 1:30pm ET | $88.97 | 113 | $10,053.05 | $10,117.45 |
$-4.52 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 2:00pm ET | $89.07 | 113 | $10,064.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 2:45pm ET | $89.15 | 113 | $10,073.39 | $10,126.49 |
+$9.04 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 2:35pm ET | $89.04 | 113 | $10,060.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET | $89.06 | 113 | $10,063.44 | $10,128.98 |
+$2.49 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.9h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 11:20am ET | $89.34 | 113 | $10,095.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 1:00pm ET | $89.33 | 113 | $10,094.29 | $10,127.85 |
$-1.13 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 3:05pm ET | $89.97 | 112 | $10,076.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $90.30 | 112 | $10,113.60 | $10,165.37 |
+$37.52 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.4h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 9:50am ET | $90.00 | 112 | $10,080.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 10:15am ET | $90.12 | 112 | $10,093.44 | $10,178.81 |
+$13.44 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 28, 2025 10:15am ET | $90.28 | 112 | $10,111.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 28, 2025 11:55am ET | $90.16 | 112 | $10,097.36 | $10,164.45 |
$-14.36 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 9:30am ET | $88.53 | 114 | $10,092.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 10:30am ET | $88.66 | 114 | $10,106.67 | $10,178.70 |
+$14.25 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 3:35pm ET | $89.07 | 114 | $10,153.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $88.88 | 114 | $10,132.32 | $10,157.61 |
$-21.09 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.9h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2025 9:30am ET | $88.46 | 114 | $10,084.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 12:05pm ET | $88.23 | 114 | $10,058.22 | $10,131.18 |
$-26.43 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.6h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 1:30pm ET | $87.95 | 115 | $10,114.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2025 2:40pm ET | $87.97 | 115 | $10,115.98 | $10,132.91 |
+$1.73 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 2:40pm ET | $87.90 | 115 | $10,108.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 3:05pm ET | $88.27 | 115 | $10,151.05 | $10,175.26 |
+$42.35 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2025 9:30am ET | $87.44 | 116 | $10,142.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 9:35am ET | $87.42 | 116 | $10,140.72 | $10,173.34 |
$-1.93 (-0.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 11:05am ET | $87.70 | 116 | $10,173.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 1:40pm ET | $87.48 | 116 | $10,147.68 | $10,147.82 |
$-25.52 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.6h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $87.63 | 115 | $10,076.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 10:25am ET | $87.85 | 115 | $10,102.75 | $10,173.69 |
+$25.87 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
54m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 12:15pm ET | $88.16 | 115 | $10,137.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 1:35pm ET | $88.18 | 115 | $10,140.13 | $10,175.99 |
+$2.30 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 1:50pm ET | $87.46 | 116 | $10,145.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2025 2:45pm ET | $87.51 | 116 | $10,150.93 | $10,181.56 |
+$5.57 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
54m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $87.07 | 116 | $10,099.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 23, 2025 10:15am ET | $87.23 | 116 | $10,118.10 | $10,199.86 |
+$18.30 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 26, 2025 11:05am ET | $87.85 | 116 | $10,190.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 1:25pm ET | $87.65 | 116 | $10,167.40 | $10,177.24 |
$-22.62 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 29, 2025 2:45pm ET | $87.88 | 115 | $10,106.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 29, 2025 3:00pm ET | $87.95 | 115 | $10,113.68 | $10,184.72 |
+$7.47 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 31, 2025 9:30am ET | $87.72 | 116 | $10,175.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 31, 2025 10:00am ET | $87.84 | 116 | $10,188.88 | $10,198.08 |
+$13.36 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 11:05am ET | $87.14 | 117 | $10,195.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 12:15pm ET | $87.19 | 117 | $10,200.65 | $10,202.82 |
+$4.74 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 2:20pm ET | $87.40 | 116 | $10,138.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 3:35pm ET | $87.40 | 116 | $10,137.82 | $10,201.76 |
$-1.06 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 2:05pm ET | $87.88 | 116 | $10,194.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 2:50pm ET | $87.94 | 116 | $10,200.46 | $10,208.16 |
+$6.39 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $87.25 | 117 | $10,207.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $87.18 | 117 | $10,199.79 | $10,200.28 |
$-7.87 (-0.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 9:40am ET | $87.52 | 116 | $10,152.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 10:45am ET | $87.67 | 116 | $10,169.72 | $10,217.68 |
+$17.40 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 3:30pm ET | $87.77 | 116 | $10,181.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.95 | 116 | $10,202.20 | $10,238.55 |
+$20.87 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 3:00pm ET | $88.44 | 115 | $10,170.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $88.11 | 115 | $10,132.08 | $10,200.04 |
$-38.51 (-0.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.5h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.65 | 117 | $10,138.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $86.57 | 117 | $10,129.22 | $10,191.20 |
$-8.83 (-0.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 10:35am ET | $87.17 | 116 | $10,111.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 11:00am ET | $87.29 | 116 | $10,125.57 | $10,205.63 |
+$14.43 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 11:45am ET | $87.67 | 116 | $10,169.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 1:20pm ET | $87.64 | 116 | $10,165.66 | $10,201.56 |
$-4.07 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $88.15 | 115 | $10,137.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 12:45pm ET | $87.99 | 115 | $10,119.10 | $10,183.33 |
$-18.23 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.3h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 1:50pm ET | $87.36 | 116 | $10,133.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 2:30pm ET | $87.42 | 116 | $10,140.72 | $10,190.29 |
+$6.96 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
42m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 3:45pm ET | $87.61 | 116 | $10,162.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.39 | 116 | $10,137.17 | $10,164.71 |
$-25.59 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.04 | 116 | $10,096.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 11:35am ET | $86.72 | 116 | $10,059.52 | $10,127.59 |
$-37.12 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.64 | 116 | $10,049.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 10:00am ET | $86.71 | 116 | $10,058.94 | $10,136.86 |
+$9.28 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 2:55pm ET | $87.28 | 116 | $10,124.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 3:20pm ET | $87.37 | 116 | $10,134.92 | $10,147.29 |
+$10.43 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.14 | 116 | $10,108.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $87.04 | 116 | $10,096.65 | $10,135.71 |
$-11.59 (-0.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:25pm ET | $88.33 | 114 | $10,069.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 2:25pm ET | $88.36 | 114 | $10,073.61 | $10,139.70 |
+$3.99 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,139.70
Net Profit/Loss:
+$139.70
Total Return:
+1.40%