TSLA Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-03-22 to present • 37 trades in period
+0.32%
Last 3 Months Return
$9,305.01
Current Value
59%
Win Rate
$9,275.44
Period Start
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.
Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
30.3 neutral
20d Trend
-11.8%
5d Trend
-10.2%
EMA20 Dist
-9.3%
ATR%
3.6%
Range Pos
7%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026
12
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality
11.9/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 11.8
30-Day Momentum
17
-0.1%
30d Return
64%
Win Rate
11
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 18.9
Conf: 0.90×
Steady (+5 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)
Market Closed (3 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$9,275.44
Current Value
$9,305.01
Period P&L
$29.51
Max Drawdown
-25.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.02
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
37
Winners / Losers
22 /
15
Best Trade
+1.12%
Worst Trade
-2.74%
Avg Trade Return
+0.01%
Avg Hold Time
6.4h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$672,016.65
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$29.51
Net P&L (after fees)
$29.51
Gross Return
+0.32%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.32%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TSLA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 37 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $9,275.44 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:45am ET | $380.98 | 24 | $9,143.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 1:35pm ET | $379.83 | 24 | $9,115.80 | $9,247.78 |
$-27.72 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:20am ET | $390.40 | 23 | $8,979.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 1:35pm ET | $389.02 | 23 | $8,947.46 | $9,216.04 |
$-31.74 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 1:50pm ET | $375.61 | 24 | $9,014.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $368.52 | 24 | $8,844.60 | $9,045.90 |
$-170.14 (-1.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.7h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 3:10pm ET | $353.20 | 25 | $8,830.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:55pm ET | $355.35 | 25 | $8,883.75 | $9,099.65 |
+$53.75 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:00pm ET | $379.68 | 23 | $8,732.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 3:05pm ET | $380.24 | 23 | $8,745.52 | $9,112.41 |
+$12.76 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:05pm ET | $348.85 | 26 | $9,069.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 2:20pm ET | $348.58 | 26 | $9,062.95 | $9,105.39 |
$-7.02 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 2:45pm ET | $340.72 | 26 | $8,858.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:20pm ET | $343.85 | 26 | $8,940.10 | $9,186.77 |
+$81.38 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 11:40am ET | $344.43 | 26 | $8,955.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 1:15pm ET | $344.22 | 26 | $8,949.72 | $9,181.31 |
$-5.46 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:25pm ET | $362.70 | 25 | $9,067.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 3:05pm ET | $364.92 | 25 | $9,123.12 | $9,236.93 |
+$55.62 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $386.14 | 23 | $8,881.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 11:05am ET | $386.32 | 23 | $8,885.36 | $9,241.07 |
+$4.14 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:20pm ET | $403.40 | 22 | $8,874.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 2:45pm ET | $401.98 | 22 | $8,843.56 | $9,209.83 |
$-31.24 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 3:05pm ET | $391.09 | 23 | $8,995.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 3:30pm ET | $392.22 | 23 | $9,021.06 | $9,235.71 |
+$25.88 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 3:45pm ET | $386.32 | 23 | $8,885.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $388.80 | 23 | $8,942.40 | $9,292.86 |
+$57.15 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.9h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:45am ET | $378.56 | 24 | $9,085.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 11:00am ET | $376.57 | 24 | $9,037.56 | $9,244.98 |
$-47.88 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $371.13 | 24 | $8,907.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $368.35 | 24 | $8,840.40 | $9,178.26 |
$-66.72 (-0.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:40am ET | $376.29 | 24 | $9,030.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 10:00am ET | $378.99 | 24 | $9,095.76 | $9,243.06 |
+$64.80 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 11:55am ET | $370.28 | 24 | $8,886.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 12:45pm ET | $372.12 | 24 | $8,930.88 | $9,287.22 |
+$44.16 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 3:35pm ET | $392.85 | 23 | $9,035.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 10:00am ET | $393.55 | 23 | $9,051.65 | $9,303.32 |
+$16.10 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 12:25pm ET | $390.75 | 23 | $8,987.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 1:30pm ET | $392.12 | 23 | $9,018.76 | $9,334.83 |
+$31.51 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 12:00pm ET | $406.46 | 22 | $8,942.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 12:45pm ET | $408.69 | 22 | $8,991.18 | $9,383.94 |
+$49.11 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $422.48 | 22 | $9,294.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 10:55am ET | $422.13 | 22 | $9,286.86 | $9,376.24 |
$-7.70 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 12:45pm ET | $422.83 | 22 | $9,302.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 1:15pm ET | $426.05 | 22 | $9,373.10 | $9,446.97 |
+$70.73 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 1:10pm ET | $445.35 | 21 | $9,352.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 1:55pm ET | $446.83 | 21 | $9,383.43 | $9,478.15 |
+$31.18 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 3:55pm ET | $422.20 | 22 | $9,288.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $418.82 | 22 | $9,214.04 | $9,403.79 |
$-74.36 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $402.28 | 23 | $9,252.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 11:15am ET | $397.97 | 23 | $9,153.31 | $9,304.66 |
$-99.13 (-1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 2:50pm ET | $419.28 | 22 | $9,224.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 3:40pm ET | $419.71 | 22 | $9,233.62 | $9,314.12 |
+$9.46 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $438.73 | 21 | $9,213.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 10:00am ET | $440.89 | 21 | $9,258.59 | $9,359.37 |
+$45.25 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 10:10am ET | $434.09 | 21 | $9,115.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 11:15am ET | $433.80 | 21 | $9,109.70 | $9,353.18 |
$-6.19 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 3:35pm ET | $416.86 | 22 | $9,170.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $418.27 | 22 | $9,201.94 | $9,384.20 |
+$31.02 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.9h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $418.74 | 22 | $9,212.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:40am ET | $422.20 | 22 | $9,288.40 | $9,460.32 |
+$76.12 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 10:00am ET | $420.71 | 22 | $9,255.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 10:10am ET | $425.11 | 22 | $9,352.31 | $9,556.91 |
+$96.59 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 12:40pm ET | $397.02 | 24 | $9,528.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 3:40pm ET | $391.86 | 24 | $9,404.64 | $9,433.19 |
$-123.72 (-1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 10:50am ET | $401.68 | 23 | $9,238.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 1:15pm ET | $390.68 | 23 | $8,985.64 | $9,180.19 |
$-253.00 (-2.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 3:20pm ET | $380.28 | 24 | $9,126.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 3:50pm ET | $382.89 | 24 | $9,189.24 | $9,242.71 |
+$62.52 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 11:50am ET | $390.56 | 23 | $8,982.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 12:30pm ET | $394.92 | 23 | $9,083.16 | $9,342.99 |
+$100.28 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 3:50pm ET | $408.17 | 22 | $8,979.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 3:55pm ET | $410.04 | 22 | $9,020.88 | $9,384.13 |
+$41.14 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $403.99 | 23 | $9,291.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $400.55 | 23 | $9,212.65 | $9,305.01 |
$-79.12 (-0.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,305.01
Net Profit/Loss:
$-694.99
Total Return:
-6.95%