XLK Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 37 trades in period
+10.08%
Last 3 Months Return
$12,164.48
Current Value
81%
Win Rate
$11,050.22
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
17.3
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.51%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.34%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.65
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.2
Unsettled
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Jun 23, 2026
36
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
6.4/35
Total Return
11.2/25
Win Rate
9.4/15
Profit Factor
2.6/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality
36.3/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 35.8
30-Day Momentum
57
+4.2%
30d Return
77%
Win Rate
13
Trades
2.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 59.7
Conf: 0.95×
Accelerating (+21 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,914
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-06-23
Trading Days
63 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)
Market Closed (3 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$11,050.22
Current Value
$12,164.48
Period P&L
$1,114.27
Max Drawdown
-11.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.54
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
37
Winners / Losers
30 /
7
Best Trade
+1.38%
Worst Trade
-0.92%
Avg Trade Return
+0.26%
Avg Hold Time
6.9h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$845,640.83
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,114.27
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,114.27
Gross Return
+10.08%
Net Return (after fees)
+10.08%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 63 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 37 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $11,050.22 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 3:00pm ET | $136.51 | 80 | $10,920.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 3:55pm ET | $136.79 | 80 | $10,942.80 | $11,072.21 |
+$22.00 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $132.50 | 83 | $10,997.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $131.62 | 83 | $10,924.67 | $10,999.38 |
$-72.83 (-0.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:55am ET | $129.12 | 85 | $10,975.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 11:05am ET | $129.54 | 85 | $11,010.90 | $11,035.08 |
+$35.70 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:00pm ET | $135.26 | 81 | $10,955.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 3:20pm ET | $135.04 | 81 | $10,937.84 | $11,017.26 |
$-17.82 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:15pm ET | $135.88 | 81 | $11,006.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 1:30pm ET | $136.47 | 81 | $11,054.07 | $11,065.05 |
+$47.79 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 2:40pm ET | $135.98 | 81 | $11,013.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:20pm ET | $136.91 | 81 | $11,089.71 | $11,140.78 |
+$75.73 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:45am ET | $142.24 | 78 | $11,095.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:50am ET | $142.93 | 78 | $11,148.15 | $11,193.82 |
+$53.04 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 12:40pm ET | $148.76 | 75 | $11,156.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 1:35pm ET | $148.95 | 75 | $11,170.88 | $11,208.08 |
+$14.26 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 2:10pm ET | $151.10 | 74 | $11,181.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 2:40pm ET | $151.52 | 74 | $11,212.85 | $11,239.21 |
+$31.13 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 10:55am ET | $153.66 | 73 | $11,217.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 12:10pm ET | $153.79 | 73 | $11,226.31 | $11,248.34 |
+$9.13 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 1:15pm ET | $154.59 | 72 | $11,130.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 1:40pm ET | $155.18 | 72 | $11,172.96 | $11,290.82 |
+$42.48 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $156.57 | 72 | $11,273.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 10:55am ET | $157.21 | 72 | $11,318.76 | $11,336.54 |
+$45.72 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:45am ET | $159.37 | 71 | $11,315.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 11:40am ET | $159.52 | 71 | $11,326.27 | $11,347.54 |
+$11.00 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 11:55am ET | $158.18 | 71 | $11,230.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 1:30pm ET | $158.20 | 71 | $11,232.20 | $11,348.96 |
+$1.42 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 2:45pm ET | $161.83 | 70 | $11,328.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 3:15pm ET | $162.07 | 70 | $11,345.25 | $11,366.11 |
+$17.15 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 3:25pm ET | $165.70 | 68 | $11,267.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $167.08 | 68 | $11,361.44 | $11,460.16 |
+$94.05 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.1h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 11:55am ET | $170.88 | 67 | $11,448.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 2:00pm ET | $169.89 | 67 | $11,382.63 | $11,393.83 |
$-66.33 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 3:00pm ET | $177.65 | 64 | $11,369.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 3:55pm ET | $177.80 | 64 | $11,379.52 | $11,403.75 |
+$9.92 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 12:45pm ET | $179.38 | 63 | $11,300.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 1:50pm ET | $179.35 | 63 | $11,298.74 | $11,401.54 |
$-2.21 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 3:55pm ET | $176.21 | 64 | $11,277.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $177.43 | 64 | $11,355.52 | $11,479.62 |
+$78.08 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 10:10am ET | $171.89 | 66 | $11,344.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 11:15am ET | $172.71 | 66 | $11,398.86 | $11,533.74 |
+$54.12 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 12:25pm ET | $175.64 | 65 | $11,416.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 1:15pm ET | $176.27 | 65 | $11,457.87 | $11,575.02 |
+$41.28 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 2:55pm ET | $177.26 | 65 | $11,521.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 3:20pm ET | $178.20 | 65 | $11,583.00 | $11,636.12 |
+$61.10 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 3:20pm ET | $180.55 | 64 | $11,555.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $183.05 | 64 | $11,715.20 | $11,796.12 |
+$160.00 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.8d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $184.56 | 63 | $11,627.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 12:05pm ET | $183.32 | 63 | $11,549.16 | $11,718.00 |
$-78.12 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 1:45pm ET | $190.07 | 61 | $11,594.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 2:30pm ET | $190.52 | 61 | $11,621.72 | $11,745.45 |
+$27.45 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 3:50pm ET | $195.40 | 60 | $11,724.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $196.13 | 60 | $11,767.80 | $11,788.95 |
+$43.50 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.7h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 9:40am ET | $195.89 | 60 | $11,753.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:45am ET | $194.86 | 60 | $11,691.60 | $11,727.15 |
$-61.80 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 9:45am ET | $190.61 | 61 | $11,627.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 10:55am ET | $191.86 | 61 | $11,703.46 | $11,803.40 |
+$76.25 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 11:20am ET | $185.44 | 63 | $11,682.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 1:35pm ET | $183.74 | 63 | $11,575.62 | $11,696.30 |
$-107.10 (-0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 3:10pm ET | $184.10 | 63 | $11,598.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $185.96 | 63 | $11,715.48 | $11,813.48 |
+$117.18 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 11:15am ET | $177.63 | 66 | $11,723.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $178.49 | 66 | $11,780.34 | $11,870.24 |
+$56.76 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 2:20pm ET | $184.58 | 64 | $11,813.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 2:40pm ET | $185.20 | 64 | $11,852.80 | $11,909.92 |
+$39.68 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $191.00 | 62 | $11,842.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 9:50am ET | $191.94 | 62 | $11,900.28 | $11,968.20 |
+$58.28 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 2:05pm ET | $186.72 | 64 | $11,950.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 2:40pm ET | $188.92 | 64 | $12,090.88 | $12,109.00 |
+$140.80 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 2:40pm ET | $191.13 | 63 | $12,041.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 3:35pm ET | $191.34 | 63 | $12,054.42 | $12,122.23 |
+$13.23 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $184.39 | 65 | $11,985.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $185.04 | 65 | $12,027.60 | $12,164.48 |
+$42.25 (+0.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,164.48
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,164.48
Total Return:
+21.64%