Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-21 08:38:58

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
58.1 neutral
20d Trend
+7.6%
5d Trend
-0.6%
EMA20 Dist
+2.4%
ATR%
2.9%
Range Pos
80%
Bounce Ratio
3.0×
Green/Red 10d
8/2

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

11
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.7/10
Raw Quality 11.4/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 11.3

30-Day Momentum

23
+0.5%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 25.0 Conf: 0.93×
Accelerating (+12 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
10,443
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-12-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (7 market holidays)

Market Closed (7 days)

2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,317.07
Current Value
$9,932.08
Period P&L
$615.06
Max Drawdown
-18.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.11

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
68
Winners / Losers
48 / 20
Best Trade
+1.35%
Worst Trade
-2.99%
Avg Trade Return
+0.10%
Avg Hold Time
6.4h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,308,078.29
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$615.06
Net P&L (after fees)
$615.06
Gross Return
+6.60%
Net Return (after fees)
+6.60%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 COP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 68 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $9,317.07 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 23, 2025 9:30am ET $93.14 100 $9,314.00
🔴 SELL Dec 23, 2025 12:25pm ET $92.61 100 $9,261.00 $9,264.01 $-53.00
(-0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.9h held
2 🟢 BUY Dec 24, 2025 12:50pm ET $91.90 100 $9,190.00
🔴 SELL Dec 26, 2025 9:30am ET $92.37 100 $9,237.00 $9,311.01 +$47.00
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Dec 31, 2025 10:10am ET $93.78 99 $9,284.22
🔴 SELL Dec 31, 2025 12:00pm ET $93.69 99 $9,275.31 $9,302.10 $-8.91
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 3:45pm ET $96.39 96 $9,252.96
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 3:55pm ET $96.69 96 $9,282.24 $9,331.38 +$29.28
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 9:50am ET $98.99 94 $9,305.06
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 10:40am ET $99.08 94 $9,313.52 $9,339.84 +$8.46
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 3:15pm ET $94.33 99 $9,338.67
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 9:30am ET $95.37 99 $9,441.63 $9,442.80 +$102.96
(+1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 2:00pm ET $98.88 95 $9,393.60
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 3:20pm ET $98.94 95 $9,398.83 $9,448.03 +$5.23
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 2:25pm ET $96.55 97 $9,364.87
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 3:30pm ET $96.73 97 $9,382.81 $9,465.97 +$17.95
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 3:40pm ET $99.97 94 $9,397.18
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2026 10:50am ET $99.51 94 $9,353.61 $9,422.40 $-43.57
(-0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
19.2h held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 11:40am ET $97.80 96 $9,388.80
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2026 1:05pm ET $97.92 96 $9,400.32 $9,433.92 +$11.52
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
11 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 1:45pm ET $95.40 98 $9,349.20
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 3:45pm ET $95.22 98 $9,331.56 $9,416.28 $-17.64
(-0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held
12 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 9:30am ET $96.29 97 $9,340.13
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 10:55am ET $96.50 97 $9,360.43 $9,436.59 +$20.30
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
13 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 11:20am ET $98.41 95 $9,348.48
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 12:15pm ET $98.68 95 $9,374.13 $9,462.24 +$25.65
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
54m held
14 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 3:05pm ET $98.23 96 $9,430.08
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 3:30pm ET $98.42 96 $9,447.84 $9,480.00 +$17.76
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held
15 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 12:55pm ET $100.67 94 $9,462.51
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 1:00pm ET $101.33 94 $9,525.03 $9,542.52 +$62.52
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
6m held
16 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 1:40pm ET $104.23 91 $9,484.93
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 2:15pm ET $104.71 91 $9,528.16 $9,585.74 +$43.22
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
36m held
17 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET $101.45 94 $9,536.30
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 10:35am ET $102.36 94 $9,621.37 $9,670.81 +$85.07
(+0.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
18 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 2:00pm ET $103.74 93 $9,647.36
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 2:30pm ET $104.21 93 $9,691.53 $9,714.99 +$44.17
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
19 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET $105.42 92 $9,698.18
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 11:55am ET $104.04 92 $9,572.14 $9,588.95 $-126.04
(-1.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held
20 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 3:10pm ET $107.14 89 $9,535.90
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 3:20pm ET $107.40 89 $9,559.04 $9,612.09 +$23.14
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held
21 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 3:40pm ET $108.39 88 $9,538.32
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $108.65 88 $9,561.20 $9,634.97 +$22.88
(+0.2%)
📅 Sim Ended
18m held
22 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET $110.76 86 $9,525.79
🔴 SELL Feb 17, 2026 11:10am ET $108.79 86 $9,356.37 $9,465.55 $-169.42
(-1.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held
23 🟢 BUY Feb 19, 2026 1:30pm ET $111.31 85 $9,461.35
🔴 SELL Feb 19, 2026 2:05pm ET $111.77 85 $9,500.45 $9,504.65 +$39.10
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
24 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 9:35am ET $109.23 87 $9,503.01
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2026 9:40am ET $108.77 87 $9,462.99 $9,464.63 $-40.02
(-0.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
25 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 9:55am ET $109.33 86 $9,402.81
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 11:50am ET $109.42 86 $9,410.12 $9,471.94 +$7.31
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held
26 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 1:35pm ET $118.77 79 $9,382.83
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 2:35pm ET $119.12 79 $9,410.48 $9,499.59 +$27.65
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
27 🟢 BUY Mar 5, 2026 12:45pm ET $115.98 81 $9,394.38
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 1:50pm ET $116.58 81 $9,443.38 $9,548.59 +$49.00
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
28 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 3:15pm ET $117.35 81 $9,505.43
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 9:40am ET $117.70 81 $9,533.70 $9,576.86 +$28.27
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held
29 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 9:40am ET $114.95 83 $9,540.85
🔴 SELL Mar 10, 2026 10:25am ET $116.37 83 $9,658.71 $9,694.72 +$117.86
(+1.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
30 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET $119.39 81 $9,670.59
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 9:40am ET $120.42 81 $9,754.02 $9,778.15 +$83.43
(+0.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
31 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 9:50am ET $120.73 80 $9,658.40
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 10:20am ET $121.72 80 $9,737.60 $9,857.35 +$79.20
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
32 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 3:45pm ET $123.81 79 $9,780.99
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $124.71 79 $9,851.70 $9,928.06 +$70.71
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held
33 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 2:05pm ET $126.72 78 $9,884.16
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 2:45pm ET $127.04 78 $9,909.12 $9,953.02 +$24.96
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
34 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 3:15pm ET $127.58 78 $9,951.24
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $128.99 78 $10,061.22 $10,063.00 +$109.98
(+1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held
35 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET $128.24 78 $10,002.72
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 9:55am ET $129.02 78 $10,063.56 $10,123.84 +$60.84
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
36 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 3:25pm ET $133.86 75 $10,039.50
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET $135.20 75 $10,140.00 $10,224.34 +$100.50
(+1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held
37 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 12:40pm ET $134.14 76 $10,194.64
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 2:40pm ET $130.13 76 $9,889.88 $9,919.58 $-304.76
(-3.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held
38 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 11:50am ET $132.35 74 $9,793.53
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 1:15pm ET $131.97 74 $9,765.78 $9,891.83 $-27.75
(-0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
39 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 11:20am ET $126.17 78 $9,840.87
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 2:00pm ET $123.83 78 $9,659.13 $9,710.09 $-181.74
(-1.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7h held
40 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 12:35pm ET $123.65 78 $9,644.96
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 3:45pm ET $122.93 78 $9,588.54 $9,653.67 $-56.42
(-0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
3.2h held
41 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 9:45am ET $117.71 82 $9,652.63
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 10:10am ET $118.39 82 $9,707.98 $9,709.02 +$55.35
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
42 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $115.88 83 $9,618.04
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:35am ET $113.93 83 $9,456.60 $9,547.59 $-161.43
(-1.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
43 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 2:45pm ET $117.28 81 $9,499.68
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET $117.19 81 $9,492.39 $9,540.30 $-7.29
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.8h held
44 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET $123.64 77 $9,520.28
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 1:25pm ET $120.91 77 $9,310.07 $9,330.09 $-210.21
(-2.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
3.9h held
45 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 1:55pm ET $123.63 75 $9,272.25
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 2:20pm ET $123.89 75 $9,291.38 $9,349.22 +$19.13
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
46 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET $124.89 74 $9,241.49
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 10:40am ET $126.57 74 $9,366.18 $9,473.91 +$124.69
(+1.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
47 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 9:35am ET $121.99 77 $9,393.23
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 9:55am ET $123.58 77 $9,515.66 $9,596.34 +$122.43
(+1.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
48 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 10:00am ET $123.85 77 $9,536.45
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 10:20am ET $124.72 77 $9,603.44 $9,663.33 +$66.99
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
49 🟢 BUY May 6, 2026 2:10pm ET $118.61 81 $9,607.02
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 2:30pm ET $119.02 81 $9,640.62 $9,696.93 +$33.60
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
50 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 3:40pm ET $114.76 84 $9,640.26
🔴 SELL May 8, 2026 10:15am ET $114.86 84 $9,648.24 $9,704.91 +$7.98
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.6h held
51 🟢 BUY May 11, 2026 3:10pm ET $115.57 83 $9,592.31
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 3:25pm ET $115.81 83 $9,612.23 $9,724.83 +$19.92
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
52 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 9:35am ET $116.49 83 $9,668.67
🔴 SELL May 13, 2026 12:05pm ET $116.26 83 $9,649.58 $9,705.74 $-19.09
(-0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.5h held
53 🟢 BUY May 14, 2026 3:55pm ET $119.09 81 $9,646.29
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 9:30am ET $120.70 81 $9,776.70 $9,836.15 +$130.41
(+1.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held
54 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 9:35am ET $120.74 81 $9,779.54
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 10:05am ET $121.93 81 $9,876.33 $9,932.94 +$96.79
(+1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
55 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 9:30am ET $124.86 79 $9,864.33
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 9:35am ET $125.63 79 $9,924.77 $9,993.37 +$60.43
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held
56 🟢 BUY May 21, 2026 1:15pm ET $121.85 82 $9,991.70
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 2:55pm ET $120.54 82 $9,884.28 $9,885.95 $-107.42
(-1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held
57 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $119.07 83 $9,883.22
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 11:50am ET $118.41 83 $9,828.03 $9,830.76 $-55.19
(-0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held
58 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 3:35pm ET $115.34 85 $9,803.90
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 9:30am ET $115.83 85 $9,845.55 $9,872.41 +$41.65
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.9h held
59 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 9:30am ET $114.31 86 $9,830.23
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 10:30am ET $114.34 86 $9,833.24 $9,875.42 +$3.01
(+0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
60 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 11:35am ET $116.57 84 $9,791.88
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 12:20pm ET $117.07 84 $9,833.46 $9,917.00 +$41.58
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
61 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 3:30pm ET $117.03 84 $9,830.52
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET $117.36 84 $9,858.24 $9,944.72 +$27.72
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18h held
62 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 9:55am ET $118.21 84 $9,929.64
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 10:55am ET $118.79 84 $9,977.94 $9,993.02 +$48.30
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
63 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 11:50am ET $117.84 84 $9,898.56
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 1:15pm ET $117.87 84 $9,901.08 $9,995.54 +$2.52
(+0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
64 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 9:30am ET $118.01 84 $9,912.84
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 9:35am ET $117.56 84 $9,875.04 $9,957.74 $-37.80
(-0.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
65 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 1:55pm ET $120.86 82 $9,910.11
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 3:20pm ET $120.70 82 $9,897.40 $9,945.03 $-12.71
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
66 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 3:35pm ET $115.85 85 $9,846.83
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 9:55am ET $116.97 85 $9,942.45 $10,040.66 +$95.63
(+1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held
67 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 3:55pm ET $112.40 89 $10,003.60
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET $110.32 89 $9,818.48 $9,855.54 $-185.12
(-1.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held
68 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 9:40am ET $109.97 89 $9,787.33
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 10:35am ET $110.83 89 $9,863.87 $9,932.08 +$76.54
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,932.08
Net Profit/Loss: $-67.92
Total Return: -0.68%
Back to Professor Mean