Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:14:04

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.8%
EMA20 Dist
-0.1%
ATR%
4.5%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.4/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality 12.2/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 12.0

30-Day Momentum

48
+4.0%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 52.1 Conf: 0.93×
Accelerating (+36 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,014
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,599.76
Current Value
$9,544.31
Period P&L
$-55.41
Max Drawdown
-30.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.00

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
68
Winners / Losers
39 / 29
Best Trade
+6.56%
Worst Trade
-7.28%
Avg Trade Return
-0.00%
Avg Hold Time
7.9h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,209,636.33
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-55.41
Net P&L (after fees)
$-55.41
Gross Return
-0.58%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.58%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NIO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 68 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $9,599.76 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 5, 2025 3:20pm ET $7.35 1,318 $9,680.71
🔴 SELL Nov 6, 2025 9:30am ET $7.41 1,318 $9,759.79 $9,764.47 +$79.08
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.2h held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET $6.92 1,411 $9,762.14
🔴 SELL Nov 7, 2025 1:20pm ET $6.74 1,411 $9,510.14 $9,512.47 $-252.00
(-2.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
3.8h held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 10, 2025 1:40pm ET $6.77 1,405 $9,511.85
🔴 SELL Nov 10, 2025 3:40pm ET $6.75 1,405 $9,476.73 $9,477.34 $-35.12
(-0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 12, 2025 9:30am ET $6.43 1,473 $9,471.39
🔴 SELL Nov 12, 2025 11:05am ET $6.42 1,473 $9,456.66 $9,462.61 $-14.73
(-0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET $6.06 1,560 $9,460.31
🔴 SELL Nov 14, 2025 9:55am ET $6.27 1,560 $9,782.76 $9,785.07 +$322.45
(+3.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 17, 2025 1:55pm ET $6.13 1,597 $9,781.63
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 3:20pm ET $6.12 1,597 $9,765.66 $9,769.10 $-15.97
(-0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
7 🟢 BUY Nov 19, 2025 9:35am ET $5.92 1,650 $9,767.84
🔴 SELL Nov 19, 2025 12:55pm ET $5.79 1,650 $9,545.25 $9,546.51 $-222.59
(-2.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
3.3h held
8 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2025 2:55pm ET $5.80 1,645 $9,541.00
🔴 SELL Nov 25, 2025 9:30am ET $5.50 1,645 $9,039.28 $9,044.79 $-501.73
(-5.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.6h held
9 🟢 BUY Nov 26, 2025 11:25am ET $5.41 1,671 $9,040.28
🔴 SELL Nov 26, 2025 12:25pm ET $5.44 1,671 $9,089.07 $9,093.58 +$48.79
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
10 🟢 BUY Dec 1, 2025 9:30am ET $5.39 1,687 $9,092.93
🔴 SELL Dec 1, 2025 9:35am ET $5.35 1,687 $9,025.45 $9,026.10 $-67.48
(-0.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
11 🟢 BUY Dec 2, 2025 9:35am ET $5.15 1,753 $9,024.44
🔴 SELL Dec 2, 2025 12:00pm ET $5.07 1,753 $8,885.26 $8,886.91 $-139.19
(-1.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held
12 🟢 BUY Dec 5, 2025 12:10pm ET $5.05 1,761 $8,884.25
🔴 SELL Dec 5, 2025 12:25pm ET $5.06 1,761 $8,910.13 $8,912.80 +$25.89
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held
13 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2025 9:30am ET $5.00 1,782 $8,910.00
🔴 SELL Dec 9, 2025 10:55am ET $5.03 1,782 $8,954.55 $8,957.35 +$44.55
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
14 🟢 BUY Dec 10, 2025 3:55pm ET $5.03 1,779 $8,952.64
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 9:30am ET $4.97 1,779 $8,832.74 $8,837.44 $-119.90
(-1.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held
15 🟢 BUY Dec 12, 2025 2:05pm ET $5.12 1,727 $8,833.61
🔴 SELL Dec 15, 2025 10:30am ET $5.04 1,727 $8,696.31 $8,700.15 $-137.30
(-1.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.9d held
16 🟢 BUY Dec 17, 2025 10:35am ET $4.98 1,745 $8,695.68
🔴 SELL Dec 17, 2025 12:15pm ET $4.97 1,745 $8,663.93 $8,668.39 $-31.76
(-0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held
17 🟢 BUY Dec 18, 2025 1:50pm ET $4.95 1,751 $8,667.45
🔴 SELL Dec 18, 2025 3:00pm ET $4.95 1,751 $8,667.45 $8,668.39 $0.00
(+0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
18 🟢 BUY Dec 19, 2025 3:50pm ET $5.00 1,735 $8,667.89
🔴 SELL Dec 19, 2025 3:55pm ET $4.99 1,735 $8,648.98 $8,649.48 $-18.91
(-0.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
19 🟢 BUY Dec 22, 2025 3:55pm ET $4.99 1,733 $8,647.67
🔴 SELL Dec 23, 2025 9:30am ET $4.94 1,733 $8,557.03 $8,558.84 $-90.64
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held
20 🟢 BUY Dec 26, 2025 3:55pm ET $5.11 1,674 $8,554.14
🔴 SELL Dec 29, 2025 9:30am ET $5.25 1,674 $8,784.32 $8,789.02 +$230.17
(+2.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held
21 🟢 BUY Dec 30, 2025 1:35pm ET $5.56 1,580 $8,784.80
🔴 SELL Dec 31, 2025 9:30am ET $5.16 1,580 $8,144.90 $8,149.12 $-639.90
(-7.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.9h held
22 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 12:50pm ET $5.13 1,590 $8,148.75
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 2:05pm ET $5.12 1,590 $8,132.85 $8,133.22 $-15.90
(-0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
23 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 2:15pm ET $4.88 1,666 $8,130.08
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 3:35pm ET $4.89 1,666 $8,146.74 $8,149.88 +$16.66
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
24 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 12:50pm ET $4.81 1,696 $8,149.28
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 1:30pm ET $4.82 1,696 $8,166.24 $8,166.84 +$16.96
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
42m held
25 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 3:30pm ET $4.73 1,726 $8,163.98
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 9:30am ET $4.68 1,726 $8,069.05 $8,071.91 $-94.93
(-1.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18h held
26 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 12:50pm ET $4.87 1,659 $8,071.04
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 1:55pm ET $4.89 1,659 $8,108.86 $8,109.73 +$37.83
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
27 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 3:30pm ET $4.72 1,719 $8,105.09
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 9:30am ET $4.59 1,719 $7,881.62 $7,886.26 $-223.47
(-2.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18h held
28 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 3:20pm ET $4.62 1,706 $7,881.72
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2026 10:15am ET $4.63 1,706 $7,890.25 $7,894.79 +$8.53
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.9h held
29 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 1:50pm ET $4.59 1,719 $7,890.21
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 2:30pm ET $4.57 1,719 $7,847.24 $7,851.82 $-42.97
(-0.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
42m held
30 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 12:55pm ET $4.83 1,625 $7,848.75
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 2:00pm ET $4.84 1,625 $7,862.56 $7,865.63 +$13.81
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
31 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 3:30pm ET $4.65 1,691 $7,863.15
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 9:35am ET $4.68 1,691 $7,913.03 $7,915.51 +$49.88
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held
32 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 1:40pm ET $4.59 1,724 $7,913.16
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 2:20pm ET $4.63 1,724 $7,979.71 $7,982.06 +$66.55
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
42m held
33 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 2:55pm ET $4.81 1,661 $7,981.11
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 9:30am ET $4.94 1,661 $8,200.86 $8,201.81 +$219.75
(+2.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.6h held
34 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET $4.53 1,810 $8,199.30
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 11:05am ET $4.48 1,810 $8,108.80 $8,111.31 $-90.50
(-1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held
35 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 1:10pm ET $4.49 1,808 $8,108.88
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 2:15pm ET $4.47 1,808 $8,090.80 $8,093.23 $-18.08
(-0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
36 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 2:45pm ET $4.80 1,685 $8,093.05
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET $5.12 1,685 $8,623.83 $8,624.00 +$530.78
(+6.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.8h held
37 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET $4.76 1,811 $8,619.82
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:35am ET $4.95 1,811 $8,973.50 $8,977.69 +$353.69
(+4.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
38 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 3:50pm ET $4.96 1,809 $8,972.82
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 9:40am ET $5.01 1,809 $9,060.20 $9,065.06 +$87.37
(+1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held
39 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 3:55pm ET $4.93 1,836 $9,060.66
🔴 SELL Feb 18, 2026 9:30am ET $4.97 1,836 $9,124.92 $9,129.32 +$64.26
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held
40 🟢 BUY Feb 19, 2026 9:30am ET $4.86 1,876 $9,126.74
🔴 SELL Feb 19, 2026 10:35am ET $4.89 1,876 $9,164.26 $9,166.84 +$37.52
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
41 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 10:05am ET $5.26 1,744 $9,164.72
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2026 11:55am ET $5.19 1,744 $9,051.53 $9,053.65 $-113.19
(-1.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
42 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 2:25pm ET $5.22 1,736 $9,053.24
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 3:35pm ET $5.22 1,736 $9,070.60 $9,071.01 +$17.36
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
43 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET $4.96 1,830 $9,070.94
🔴 SELL Feb 27, 2026 12:05pm ET $4.95 1,830 $9,067.65 $9,067.72 $-3.29
(-0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.6h held
44 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET $4.51 2,008 $9,066.12
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 11:05am ET $4.49 2,008 $9,005.88 $9,007.48 $-60.24
(-0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held
45 🟢 BUY Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET $4.72 1,908 $9,005.76
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 12:05pm ET $4.66 1,908 $8,881.74 $8,883.46 $-124.02
(-1.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.6h held
46 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 11:45am ET $5.34 1,663 $8,880.59
🔴 SELL Mar 10, 2026 12:15pm ET $5.45 1,663 $9,058.19 $9,061.07 +$177.61
(+2.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
47 🟢 BUY Mar 12, 2026 1:45pm ET $5.57 1,628 $9,059.82
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 2:05pm ET $5.62 1,628 $9,146.92 $9,148.17 +$87.10
(+1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
48 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 1:10pm ET $6.04 1,514 $9,144.56
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 2:05pm ET $6.07 1,514 $9,182.41 $9,186.02 +$37.85
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held
49 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET $5.90 1,556 $9,180.40
🔴 SELL Mar 18, 2026 10:05am ET $5.95 1,556 $9,250.42 $9,256.04 +$70.02
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
50 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 9:35am ET $5.76 1,605 $9,252.82
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 11:55am ET $5.58 1,605 $8,955.74 $8,958.95 $-297.09
(-3.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held
51 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $5.75 1,558 $8,953.83
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 9:35am ET $5.82 1,558 $9,075.35 $9,080.47 +$121.52
(+1.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held
52 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 11:50am ET $5.82 1,558 $9,075.35
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 1:15pm ET $5.83 1,558 $9,083.14 $9,088.26 +$7.79
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
53 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 3:00pm ET $5.59 1,625 $9,083.91
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 11:50am ET $5.46 1,625 $8,874.61 $8,878.96 $-209.30
(-2.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20.8h held
54 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 1:25pm ET $5.52 1,608 $8,876.32
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 2:25pm ET $5.55 1,608 $8,916.36 $8,919.00 +$40.04
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
55 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $6.07 1,468 $8,918.10
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:55am ET $6.20 1,468 $9,094.26 $9,095.16 +$176.16
(+2.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
56 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 12:15pm ET $6.30 1,442 $9,091.81
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 2:10pm ET $6.25 1,442 $9,012.50 $9,015.85 $-79.31
(-0.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held
57 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 2:45pm ET $6.41 1,405 $9,013.07
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET $6.57 1,405 $9,230.85 $9,233.63 +$217.78
(+2.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.8h held
58 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 3:10pm ET $6.43 1,436 $9,233.48
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 3:15pm ET $6.45 1,436 $9,255.02 $9,255.17 +$21.54
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held
59 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 3:40pm ET $6.49 1,426 $9,255.17
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $6.52 1,426 $9,297.52 $9,297.52 +$42.35
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held
60 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET $6.48 1,434 $9,292.32
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 11:10am ET $6.49 1,434 $9,306.66 $9,311.86 +$14.34
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held
61 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 1:20pm ET $6.82 1,365 $9,309.30
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 2:20pm ET $6.85 1,365 $9,350.39 $9,352.95 +$41.09
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
62 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET $6.64 1,408 $9,349.12
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 11:15am ET $6.56 1,408 $9,236.34 $9,240.17 $-112.78
(-1.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
63 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 3:00pm ET $6.52 1,417 $9,238.84
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 3:05pm ET $6.55 1,417 $9,288.43 $9,289.76 +$49.59
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held
64 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET $6.16 1,508 $9,289.28
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 10:25am ET $6.24 1,508 $9,408.41 $9,408.89 +$119.13
(+1.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held
65 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET $6.15 1,529 $9,403.35
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 10:00am ET $6.24 1,529 $9,533.32 $9,538.86 +$129.97
(+1.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
66 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 11:55am ET $6.40 1,490 $9,536.15
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 1:15pm ET $6.43 1,490 $9,578.47 $9,581.18 +$42.32
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
67 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 9:30am ET $6.19 1,547 $9,575.93
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:35am ET $6.11 1,547 $9,452.17 $9,457.42 $-123.76
(-1.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
68 🟢 BUY May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $5.71 1,655 $9,454.19
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:35am ET $5.76 1,655 $9,541.07 $9,544.31 +$86.89
(+0.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,544.31
Net Profit/Loss: $-455.69
Total Return: -4.56%
Back to Professor Mean