Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 12:28:22

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
42.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
-1.5%
EMA20 Dist
-1.8%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

24
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.6/35
Total Return
9.8/25
Win Rate
6.6/15
Profit Factor
1.4/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality 24.9/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 24.5

30-Day Momentum

11
-1.3%
30d Return
43%
Win Rate
14
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 11.1 Conf: 0.98×
Declining (-14 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
13,310
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
133 days
Data Gaps
1 day with gaps

Data Gap Notice

The following dates had fewer candles than expected. This could be due to early market closes, API rate limits during data collection, or low volume periods. Simulation results may be slightly affected.

2025-11-28 (no data)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,402.29
Current Value
$11,415.28
Period P&L
$1,013.08
Max Drawdown
-19.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.14

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
65
Winners / Losers
38 / 27
Best Trade
+4.92%
Worst Trade
-2.74%
Avg Trade Return
+0.15%
Avg Hold Time
5h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,425,914.50
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,013.08
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,013.08
Gross Return
+9.74%
Net Return (after fees)
+9.74%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SPXU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 133 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 65 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $10,402.29 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 12, 2025 11:10am ET $50.28 206 $10,357.68
🔴 SELL Nov 12, 2025 11:55am ET $50.44 206 $10,390.64 $10,435.16 +$32.96
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 19, 2025 12:05pm ET $54.28 192 $10,421.76
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET $56.95 192 $10,934.44 $10,947.83 +$512.68
(+4.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
21.4h held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2025 9:30am ET $53.75 203 $10,911.25
🔴 SELL Nov 24, 2025 9:35am ET $53.67 203 $10,894.99 $10,931.57 $-16.26
(-0.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 25, 2025 1:05pm ET $52.07 209 $10,882.63
🔴 SELL Nov 25, 2025 1:50pm ET $52.18 209 $10,905.62 $10,954.56 +$22.99
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held
5 🟢 BUY Dec 1, 2025 1:00pm ET $51.02 214 $10,918.28
🔴 SELL Dec 1, 2025 1:05pm ET $51.19 214 $10,954.66 $10,990.94 +$36.38
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
6m held
6 🟢 BUY Dec 4, 2025 10:55am ET $50.20 218 $10,943.60
🔴 SELL Dec 4, 2025 12:30pm ET $50.33 218 $10,971.94 $11,019.28 +$28.34
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held
7 🟢 BUY Dec 8, 2025 11:05am ET $50.51 218 $11,011.22
🔴 SELL Dec 8, 2025 1:30pm ET $50.37 218 $10,980.66 $10,988.72 $-30.56
(-0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held
8 🟢 BUY Dec 11, 2025 9:30am ET $49.41 222 $10,969.02
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 11:15am ET $49.04 222 $10,886.88 $10,906.58 $-82.14
(-0.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 15, 2025 9:30am ET $50.48 216 $10,903.68
🔴 SELL Dec 15, 2025 10:00am ET $51.04 216 $11,024.64 $11,027.54 +$120.96
(+1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
10 🟢 BUY Dec 18, 2025 9:30am ET $51.88 212 $10,998.56
🔴 SELL Dec 18, 2025 11:55am ET $51.46 212 $10,908.46 $10,937.44 $-90.10
(-0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held
11 🟢 BUY Dec 19, 2025 12:20pm ET $50.79 215 $10,918.78
🔴 SELL Dec 19, 2025 1:35pm ET $50.84 215 $10,931.35 $10,950.02 +$12.58
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
12 🟢 BUY Dec 23, 2025 9:35am ET $49.82 219 $10,910.58
🔴 SELL Dec 23, 2025 9:40am ET $49.72 219 $10,888.68 $10,928.12 $-21.90
(-0.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
13 🟢 BUY Dec 24, 2025 9:40am ET $48.25 226 $10,903.37
🔴 SELL Dec 24, 2025 12:55pm ET $47.84 226 $10,811.84 $10,836.59 $-91.53
(-0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
3.3h held
14 🟢 BUY Dec 29, 2025 1:20pm ET $48.49 223 $10,813.27
🔴 SELL Dec 29, 2025 2:05pm ET $48.59 223 $10,835.57 $10,858.89 +$22.30
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held
15 🟢 BUY Dec 31, 2025 1:40pm ET $48.91 222 $10,858.33
🔴 SELL Dec 31, 2025 2:25pm ET $49.07 222 $10,892.43 $10,892.99 +$34.10
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held
16 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 2:25pm ET $49.57 219 $10,855.83
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 3:40pm ET $49.63 219 $10,869.82 $10,906.98 +$13.99
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
17 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 9:40am ET $48.39 225 $10,887.75
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 9:45am ET $48.23 225 $10,850.74 $10,869.97 $-37.01
(-0.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
18 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 9:45am ET $47.52 228 $10,835.59
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 10:00am ET $47.69 228 $10,873.32 $10,907.70 +$37.73
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held
19 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 12:50pm ET $48.01 227 $10,897.14
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 1:05pm ET $48.19 227 $10,939.13 $10,949.70 +$41.99
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held
20 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 1:35pm ET $47.17 232 $10,943.44
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 3:10pm ET $47.16 232 $10,941.12 $10,947.38 $-2.32
(-0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held
21 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 11:40am ET $47.23 231 $10,910.55
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 12:35pm ET $47.31 231 $10,928.61 $10,965.44 +$18.06
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
54m held
22 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 1:50pm ET $48.65 225 $10,945.13
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2026 9:30am ET $47.31 225 $10,644.75 $10,665.07 $-300.38
(-2.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.7h held
23 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 2:00pm ET $47.57 224 $10,654.56
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2026 2:10pm ET $47.74 224 $10,693.78 $10,704.29 +$39.22
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held
24 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET $50.45 212 $10,695.40
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 9:35am ET $50.33 212 $10,668.98 $10,677.87 $-26.42
(-0.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
25 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 9:35am ET $48.08 222 $10,673.60
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 1:25pm ET $48.06 222 $10,668.21 $10,672.48 $-5.39
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
3.8h held
26 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 2:20pm ET $48.21 221 $10,654.41
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 2:45pm ET $48.39 221 $10,693.20 $10,711.27 +$38.79
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held
27 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 9:45am ET $47.31 226 $10,692.06
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 9:50am ET $47.15 226 $10,656.13 $10,675.33 $-35.93
(-0.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
28 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 9:50am ET $46.68 228 $10,643.04
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 10:10am ET $47.00 228 $10,716.00 $10,748.29 +$72.96
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held
29 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 3:35pm ET $47.72 225 $10,737.00
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 9:50am ET $47.84 225 $10,764.00 $10,775.29 +$27.00
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held
30 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 9:50am ET $47.63 226 $10,765.51
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 11:45am ET $47.32 226 $10,694.32 $10,704.10 $-71.19
(-0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held
31 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 3:30pm ET $48.58 220 $10,687.60
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 9:55am ET $48.75 220 $10,725.00 $10,741.50 +$37.40
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.4h held
32 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET $49.69 216 $10,733.04
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 2:10pm ET $48.51 216 $10,478.16 $10,486.62 $-254.88
(-2.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
4.7h held
33 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 2:15pm ET $47.18 222 $10,473.96
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:15pm ET $47.22 222 $10,482.84 $10,495.50 +$8.88
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
34 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 9:30am ET $47.05 223 $10,492.15
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 10:00am ET $47.55 223 $10,603.65 $10,607.00 +$111.50
(+1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
35 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 1:40pm ET $49.73 213 $10,592.49
🔴 SELL Feb 17, 2026 3:00pm ET $49.72 213 $10,590.36 $10,604.87 $-2.13
(-0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
36 🟢 BUY Feb 20, 2026 10:10am ET $48.94 216 $10,572.12
🔴 SELL Feb 20, 2026 11:25am ET $49.15 216 $10,616.42 $10,649.17 +$44.30
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
37 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 1:20pm ET $49.77 213 $10,601.01
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 2:00pm ET $50.09 213 $10,669.17 $10,717.33 +$68.16
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
38 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 3:50pm ET $48.83 219 $10,693.77
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 9:30am ET $48.25 219 $10,566.75 $10,590.31 $-127.02
(-1.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held
39 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 1:45pm ET $48.85 216 $10,551.60
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 3:30pm ET $48.70 216 $10,519.20 $10,557.91 $-32.40
(-0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
40 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 11:45am ET $49.24 214 $10,536.29
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 1:20pm ET $49.26 214 $10,540.57 $10,562.19 +$4.28
(+0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held
41 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 1:20pm ET $50.81 207 $10,517.67
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 2:35pm ET $50.81 207 $10,516.86 $10,561.38 $-0.81
(-0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
42 🟢 BUY Mar 5, 2026 3:10pm ET $50.98 207 $10,552.86
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $52.13 207 $10,790.91 $10,799.43 +$238.05
(+2.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held
43 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 12:45pm ET $52.57 205 $10,776.85
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 1:20pm ET $53.08 205 $10,881.40 $10,903.98 +$104.55
(+1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
44 🟢 BUY Mar 11, 2026 3:40pm ET $51.59 211 $10,885.55
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET $52.87 211 $11,155.57 $11,174.00 +$270.02
(+2.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held
45 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET $53.09 210 $11,148.90
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 10:15am ET $53.36 210 $11,205.60 $11,230.70 +$56.70
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
46 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 3:10pm ET $52.61 213 $11,205.72
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 3:20pm ET $53.13 213 $11,316.69 $11,341.67 +$110.97
(+1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
47 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 3:05pm ET $55.23 205 $11,322.15
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 9:30am ET $56.01 205 $11,483.07 $11,502.59 +$160.92
(+1.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.4h held
48 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $55.55 207 $11,498.85
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 11:35am ET $54.84 207 $11,351.88 $11,355.62 $-146.97
(-1.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held
49 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 2:40pm ET $55.95 202 $11,301.90
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 3:30pm ET $56.52 202 $11,417.04 $11,470.76 +$115.14
(+1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held
50 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 11:35am ET $59.36 193 $11,456.48
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 12:05pm ET $59.82 193 $11,545.65 $11,559.93 +$89.17
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
51 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 9:30am ET $59.95 192 $11,510.40
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 10:50am ET $59.96 192 $11,511.36 $11,560.89 +$0.96
(+0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
52 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 3:50pm ET $55.49 208 $11,542.96
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 10:50am ET $55.07 208 $11,454.56 $11,472.49 $-88.40
(-0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
3.8d held
53 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $50.19 228 $11,443.55
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 10:55am ET $51.29 228 $11,694.10 $11,723.04 +$250.55
(+2.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
54 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 11:20am ET $50.37 232 $11,685.84
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 2:05pm ET $49.69 232 $11,528.08 $11,565.28 $-157.76
(-1.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held
55 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 3:15pm ET $49.62 233 $11,561.48
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 3:35pm ET $49.75 233 $11,591.75 $11,595.55 +$30.27
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
56 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 3:50pm ET $48.55 238 $11,554.28
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $47.91 238 $11,402.58 $11,443.85 $-151.70
(-1.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held
57 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET $46.38 246 $11,409.48
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 12:00pm ET $46.08 246 $11,334.45 $11,368.82 $-75.03
(-0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.5h held
58 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $44.26 256 $11,330.64
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:35am ET $44.11 256 $11,292.19 $11,330.37 $-38.45
(-0.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
59 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 1:10pm ET $43.94 257 $11,292.58
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 1:35pm ET $44.01 257 $11,310.57 $11,348.36 +$17.99
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
60 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 3:25pm ET $44.06 257 $11,323.42
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 3:40pm ET $44.35 257 $11,397.95 $11,422.89 +$74.53
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
61 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET $43.49 262 $11,394.38
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 1:10pm ET $43.03 262 $11,273.86 $11,302.37 $-120.52
(-1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
3.7h held
62 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 1:30pm ET $42.78 264 $11,295.24
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 2:45pm ET $42.78 264 $11,293.89 $11,301.02 $-1.35
(-0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
63 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 3:05pm ET $43.31 260 $11,261.90
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 3:35pm ET $43.43 260 $11,291.80 $11,330.92 +$29.90
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
64 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET $42.93 263 $11,290.59
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 10:00am ET $43.46 263 $11,429.95 $11,470.28 +$139.36
(+1.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
65 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 9:30am ET $41.60 275 $11,440.00
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 12:00pm ET $41.40 275 $11,385.00 $11,415.28 $-55.00
(-0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.5h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,415.28
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,415.28
Total Return: +14.15%
Back to Professor Mean