Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:25:30

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
36.2 neutral
20d Trend
-2.9%
5d Trend
-2.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.9%
ATR%
1.1%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

22
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.7/35
Total Return
6.1/25
Win Rate
6.8/15
Profit Factor
1.0/15
Consistency
6.2/10
Raw Quality 21.8/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 21.6

30-Day Momentum

37
+0.9%
30d Return
64%
Win Rate
11
Trades
2.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 40.8 Conf: 0.90×
Accelerating (+15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
12,324
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
137 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,908.63
Current Value
$10,435.15
Period P&L
$526.61
Max Drawdown
-8.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.19

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
70
Winners / Losers
46 / 24
Best Trade
+1.10%
Worst Trade
-1.67%
Avg Trade Return
+0.08%
Avg Hold Time
7.5h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,384,475.70
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$526.61
Net P&L (after fees)
$526.61
Gross Return
+5.31%
Net Return (after fees)
+5.31%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 VTI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 137 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 70 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $9,908.63 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 6, 2025 3:40pm ET $329.97 30 $9,899.10
🔴 SELL Nov 6, 2025 3:45pm ET $329.48 30 $9,884.40 $9,893.89 $-14.70
(-0.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 11, 2025 9:30am ET $334.38 29 $9,697.03
🔴 SELL Nov 11, 2025 11:15am ET $334.52 29 $9,701.08 $9,897.94 +$4.05
(+0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 12, 2025 2:10pm ET $335.78 29 $9,737.62
🔴 SELL Nov 12, 2025 3:15pm ET $335.84 29 $9,739.36 $9,899.68 +$1.74
(+0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET $325.88 30 $9,776.40
🔴 SELL Nov 14, 2025 10:25am ET $328.92 30 $9,867.56 $9,990.83 +$91.16
(+0.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
54m held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 17, 2025 11:05am ET $328.49 30 $9,854.55
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 11:30am ET $329.26 30 $9,877.73 $10,014.01 +$23.18
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 18, 2025 3:30pm ET $324.94 30 $9,748.20
🔴 SELL Nov 19, 2025 9:40am ET $325.40 30 $9,762.00 $10,027.81 +$13.80
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.2h held
7 🟢 BUY Nov 20, 2025 11:05am ET $329.35 30 $9,880.50
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 1:05pm ET $323.87 30 $9,715.98 $9,863.29 $-164.52
(-1.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held
8 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 3:25pm ET $323.99 30 $9,719.70
🔴 SELL Nov 24, 2025 9:30am ET $326.52 30 $9,795.60 $9,939.19 +$75.90
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held
9 🟢 BUY Nov 25, 2025 9:45am ET $327.00 30 $9,810.00
🔴 SELL Nov 25, 2025 9:55am ET $329.09 30 $9,872.55 $10,001.74 +$62.55
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held
10 🟢 BUY Nov 26, 2025 1:05pm ET $334.73 29 $9,707.17
🔴 SELL Nov 26, 2025 1:20pm ET $335.11 29 $9,718.19 $10,012.76 +$11.02
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held
11 🟢 BUY Dec 1, 2025 2:15pm ET $335.32 29 $9,724.28
🔴 SELL Dec 1, 2025 2:20pm ET $335.03 29 $9,715.87 $10,004.35 $-8.41
(-0.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
12 🟢 BUY Dec 3, 2025 9:30am ET $334.77 29 $9,708.33
🔴 SELL Dec 3, 2025 10:00am ET $335.59 29 $9,732.08 $10,028.10 +$23.75
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
13 🟢 BUY Dec 4, 2025 2:10pm ET $336.72 29 $9,764.88
🔴 SELL Dec 4, 2025 2:15pm ET $336.18 29 $9,749.22 $10,012.44 $-15.66
(-0.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
14 🟢 BUY Dec 5, 2025 3:45pm ET $337.26 29 $9,780.40
🔴 SELL Dec 8, 2025 9:30am ET $337.81 29 $9,796.49 $10,028.54 +$16.10
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held
15 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2025 12:30pm ET $336.98 29 $9,772.42
🔴 SELL Dec 9, 2025 1:50pm ET $336.92 29 $9,770.71 $10,026.82 $-1.71
(-0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
16 🟢 BUY Dec 11, 2025 9:50am ET $336.63 29 $9,762.27
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 10:20am ET $338.54 29 $9,817.79 $10,082.34 +$55.52
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
17 🟢 BUY Dec 12, 2025 10:20am ET $337.75 29 $9,794.75
🔴 SELL Dec 12, 2025 12:10pm ET $336.22 29 $9,750.38 $10,037.97 $-44.37
(-0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
18 🟢 BUY Dec 16, 2025 9:30am ET $334.77 29 $9,708.34
🔴 SELL Dec 16, 2025 9:55am ET $335.37 29 $9,725.85 $10,055.48 +$17.51
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held
19 🟢 BUY Dec 17, 2025 10:35am ET $333.65 30 $10,009.50
🔴 SELL Dec 17, 2025 10:40am ET $333.20 30 $9,996.00 $10,041.98 $-13.50
(-0.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
20 🟢 BUY Dec 18, 2025 12:00pm ET $334.39 30 $10,031.70
🔴 SELL Dec 18, 2025 12:05pm ET $333.40 30 $10,002.00 $10,012.28 $-29.70
(-0.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
21 🟢 BUY Dec 19, 2025 3:40pm ET $335.93 29 $9,741.97
🔴 SELL Dec 19, 2025 3:50pm ET $336.24 29 $9,750.96 $10,021.27 +$8.99
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held
22 🟢 BUY Dec 23, 2025 10:00am ET $337.16 29 $9,777.64
🔴 SELL Dec 23, 2025 10:20am ET $337.66 29 $9,792.14 $10,035.77 +$14.50
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held
23 🟢 BUY Dec 26, 2025 10:00am ET $339.61 29 $9,848.69
🔴 SELL Dec 26, 2025 10:30am ET $339.95 29 $9,858.55 $10,045.63 +$9.86
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
24 🟢 BUY Dec 29, 2025 12:20pm ET $337.83 29 $9,797.07
🔴 SELL Dec 29, 2025 12:50pm ET $338.01 29 $9,802.29 $10,050.85 +$5.22
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
25 🟢 BUY Dec 30, 2025 2:50pm ET $338.22 29 $9,808.38
🔴 SELL Dec 30, 2025 3:35pm ET $338.27 29 $9,809.83 $10,052.30 +$1.45
(+0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held
26 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 1:45pm ET $334.78 30 $10,043.25
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 2:05pm ET $335.54 30 $10,066.14 $10,075.19 +$22.89
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held
27 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 2:40pm ET $338.96 29 $9,829.84
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 3:10pm ET $339.17 29 $9,835.93 $10,081.28 +$6.09
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
28 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 10:00am ET $340.99 29 $9,888.71
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 10:45am ET $341.25 29 $9,896.25 $10,088.82 +$7.54
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held
29 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $342.37 29 $9,928.59
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET $341.22 29 $9,895.38 $10,055.61 $-33.20
(-0.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held
30 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 9:50am ET $342.67 29 $9,937.29
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 11:15am ET $342.41 29 $9,929.89 $10,048.22 $-7.39
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
31 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 12:55pm ET $342.96 29 $9,945.84
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2026 1:25pm ET $343.45 29 $9,959.91 $10,062.28 +$14.07
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
32 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 3:55pm ET $341.85 29 $9,913.66
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $337.46 29 $9,786.34 $9,934.96 $-127.32
(-1.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.7d held
33 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 11:40am ET $337.01 29 $9,773.29
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 1:10pm ET $336.44 29 $9,756.76 $9,918.43 $-16.53
(-0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held
34 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 2:35pm ET $341.42 29 $9,901.32
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 9:55am ET $340.66 29 $9,879.00 $9,896.11 $-22.32
(-0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
19.3h held
35 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 3:50pm ET $342.15 28 $9,580.20
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $341.98 28 $9,575.30 $9,891.21 $-4.90
(-0.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
36 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 3:55pm ET $343.30 28 $9,612.40
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 9:30am ET $344.14 28 $9,635.92 $9,914.73 +$23.52
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held
37 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 9:40am ET $342.00 28 $9,576.00
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 9:55am ET $341.12 28 $9,551.36 $9,890.09 $-24.64
(-0.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18m held
38 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 10:25am ET $340.50 29 $9,874.50
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 10:40am ET $341.61 29 $9,906.55 $9,922.14 +$32.05
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held
39 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 2:55pm ET $342.52 28 $9,590.56
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET $342.97 28 $9,603.16 $9,934.73 +$12.60
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.6h held
40 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 11:00am ET $338.66 29 $9,821.14
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 1:25pm ET $337.41 29 $9,784.89 $9,898.48 $-36.25
(-0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held
41 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 1:25pm ET $342.69 28 $9,595.35
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 1:40pm ET $343.08 28 $9,606.38 $9,909.51 +$11.03
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held
42 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 3:35pm ET $342.16 28 $9,580.48
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 9:30am ET $343.78 28 $9,625.84 $9,954.87 +$45.36
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.9h held
43 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:55am ET $334.45 29 $9,698.91
🔴 SELL Feb 17, 2026 11:00am ET $335.06 29 $9,716.74 $9,972.70 +$17.83
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
44 🟢 BUY Feb 18, 2026 12:00pm ET $339.61 29 $9,848.69
🔴 SELL Feb 18, 2026 12:05pm ET $340.05 29 $9,861.45 $9,985.46 +$12.76
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held
45 🟢 BUY Feb 20, 2026 12:15pm ET $338.52 29 $9,817.08
🔴 SELL Feb 20, 2026 1:00pm ET $339.52 29 $9,846.08 $10,014.46 +$29.00
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
46 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET $341.61 29 $9,906.83
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 9:40am ET $341.23 29 $9,895.67 $10,003.30 $-11.16
(-0.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held
47 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2026 9:40am ET $337.37 29 $9,783.73
🔴 SELL Feb 27, 2026 10:45am ET $338.48 29 $9,815.78 $10,035.35 +$32.05
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
48 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 2:00pm ET $338.47 29 $9,815.63
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 2:10pm ET $339.06 29 $9,832.62 $10,052.34 +$16.99
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
49 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 3:10pm ET $338.61 29 $9,819.69
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 3:45pm ET $338.85 29 $9,826.65 $10,059.30 +$6.96
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
50 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $332.04 30 $9,961.05
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 10:35am ET $332.74 30 $9,982.20 $10,080.45 +$21.15
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
51 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 2:15pm ET $334.77 30 $10,043.10
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2026 10:05am ET $334.21 30 $10,026.30 $10,063.65 $-16.80
(-0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
19.8h held
52 🟢 BUY Mar 12, 2026 1:55pm ET $328.68 30 $9,860.34
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 2:15pm ET $329.53 30 $9,885.90 $10,089.21 +$25.56
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
53 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 12:25pm ET $328.72 30 $9,861.60
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 1:10pm ET $329.44 30 $9,883.20 $10,110.81 +$21.60
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
54 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET $329.59 30 $9,887.70
🔴 SELL Mar 18, 2026 11:10am ET $329.08 30 $9,872.40 $10,095.51 $-15.30
(-0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held
55 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 11:55am ET $324.84 31 $10,070.04
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 1:35pm ET $325.38 31 $10,086.78 $10,112.25 +$16.74
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held
56 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 3:55pm ET $323.06 31 $10,014.85
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET $326.60 31 $10,124.60 $10,222.00 +$109.75
(+1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held
57 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET $322.51 31 $9,997.81
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 10:40am ET $324.15 31 $10,048.65 $10,272.84 +$50.84
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
58 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 3:45pm ET $312.98 32 $10,015.52
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET $315.65 32 $10,100.80 $10,358.12 +$85.28
(+0.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held
59 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 2:00pm ET $324.18 31 $10,049.58
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 3:20pm ET $323.56 31 $10,030.36 $10,338.90 $-19.22
(-0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
60 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 1:15pm ET $323.77 31 $10,036.72
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 2:15pm ET $324.55 31 $10,061.20 $10,363.39 +$24.49
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
61 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 2:45pm ET $323.55 32 $10,353.60
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 3:20pm ET $324.93 32 $10,397.92 $10,407.71 +$44.32
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
62 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 11:55am ET $335.05 31 $10,386.70
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 1:45pm ET $334.95 31 $10,383.38 $10,404.39 $-3.32
(-0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
63 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 2:25pm ET $341.64 30 $10,249.20
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 3:05pm ET $342.15 30 $10,264.50 $10,419.69 +$15.30
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
64 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 1:25pm ET $350.45 29 $10,163.05
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 2:45pm ET $350.57 29 $10,166.53 $10,423.17 +$3.48
(+0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
65 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 11:00am ET $349.54 29 $10,136.66
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 12:35pm ET $349.47 29 $10,134.63 $10,421.14 $-2.03
(-0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held
66 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 1:05pm ET $349.96 29 $10,148.90
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 2:10pm ET $349.54 29 $10,136.66 $10,408.90 $-12.24
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
67 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 9:50am ET $351.48 29 $10,192.92
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 9:55am ET $352.21 29 $10,214.09 $10,430.07 +$21.17
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held
68 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 9:55am ET $350.64 29 $10,168.56
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 12:05pm ET $349.99 29 $10,149.71 $10,411.22 $-18.85
(-0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.2h held
69 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 12:35pm ET $348.99 29 $10,120.85
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 1:30pm ET $349.46 29 $10,134.48 $10,424.85 +$13.63
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held
70 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 2:35pm ET $355.58 29 $10,311.96
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 3:15pm ET $355.94 29 $10,322.26 $10,435.15 +$10.30
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,435.15
Net Profit/Loss: +$435.15
Total Return: +4.35%
Back to Professor Mean