Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 12:22:25

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
74.9 overbought
20d Trend
+15.2%
5d Trend
+3.0%
EMA20 Dist
+5.9%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
94%
Bounce Ratio
3.7×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

13
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 13.2/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 13.0

30-Day Momentum

10
-6.4%
30d Return
42%
Win Rate
12
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.6 Conf: 0.93×
Cooling (-3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
12,730
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
137 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$11,155.20
Current Value
$9,417.52
Period P&L
$-1,737.62
Max Drawdown
-9.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.22

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
70
Winners / Losers
36 / 34
Best Trade
+1.41%
Worst Trade
-4.99%
Avg Trade Return
-0.24%
Avg Hold Time
8.7h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,460,883.79
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,737.62
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,737.62
Gross Return
-15.58%
Net Return (after fees)
-15.58%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XOM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 137 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 70 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $11,155.20 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 6, 2025 12:20pm ET $114.10 97 $11,067.70
🔴 SELL Nov 6, 2025 1:25pm ET $114.19 97 $11,075.95 $11,163.39 +$8.25
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 10, 2025 9:30am ET $116.94 95 $11,109.30
🔴 SELL Nov 10, 2025 9:35am ET $116.08 95 $11,027.60 $11,081.69 $-81.70
(-0.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 11, 2025 3:25pm ET $119.98 92 $11,038.16
🔴 SELL Nov 12, 2025 9:30am ET $118.82 92 $10,931.44 $10,974.97 $-106.72
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.1h held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 13, 2025 2:20pm ET $119.08 92 $10,954.90
🔴 SELL Nov 13, 2025 3:35pm ET $118.93 92 $10,941.15 $10,961.21 $-13.75
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 3:45pm ET $119.00 92 $10,947.54
🔴 SELL Nov 14, 2025 3:55pm ET $119.29 92 $10,974.22 $10,987.89 +$26.68
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 18, 2025 3:45pm ET $118.86 92 $10,935.12
🔴 SELL Nov 19, 2025 9:30am ET $116.32 92 $10,701.44 $10,754.21 $-233.68
(-2.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held
7 🟢 BUY Nov 20, 2025 11:30am ET $118.02 91 $10,739.41
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 1:10pm ET $117.75 91 $10,715.25 $10,730.05 $-24.16
(-0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held
8 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 3:20pm ET $117.00 91 $10,647.00
🔴 SELL Nov 21, 2025 3:45pm ET $117.21 91 $10,666.11 $10,749.16 +$19.11
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held
9 🟢 BUY Nov 25, 2025 9:45am ET $115.16 93 $10,709.88
🔴 SELL Nov 25, 2025 10:45am ET $115.36 93 $10,728.48 $10,767.76 +$18.60
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
10 🟢 BUY Nov 26, 2025 1:40pm ET $115.18 93 $10,711.28
🔴 SELL Nov 26, 2025 2:15pm ET $115.51 93 $10,742.43 $10,798.92 +$31.16
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
36m held
11 🟢 BUY Dec 1, 2025 3:35pm ET $116.69 92 $10,735.39
🔴 SELL Dec 1, 2025 3:40pm ET $116.54 92 $10,721.22 $10,784.75 $-14.17
(-0.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
12 🟢 BUY Dec 3, 2025 3:10pm ET $117.70 91 $10,710.25
🔴 SELL Dec 3, 2025 3:40pm ET $117.85 91 $10,724.35 $10,798.86 +$14.11
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
13 🟢 BUY Dec 5, 2025 3:20pm ET $117.32 92 $10,792.98
🔴 SELL Dec 5, 2025 3:30pm ET $116.93 92 $10,757.86 $10,763.74 $-35.12
(-0.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
12m held
14 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2025 12:35pm ET $118.92 90 $10,702.80
🔴 SELL Dec 9, 2025 3:05pm ET $118.62 90 $10,675.80 $10,736.74 $-27.00
(-0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.5h held
15 🟢 BUY Dec 11, 2025 1:45pm ET $119.62 89 $10,646.18
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 2:55pm ET $119.56 89 $10,640.84 $10,731.40 $-5.34
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
16 🟢 BUY Dec 15, 2025 9:35am ET $117.77 91 $10,716.62
🔴 SELL Dec 15, 2025 12:40pm ET $117.09 91 $10,654.74 $10,669.52 $-61.88
(-0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
3.1h held
17 🟢 BUY Dec 16, 2025 12:40pm ET $114.96 92 $10,576.47
🔴 SELL Dec 16, 2025 1:30pm ET $115.09 92 $10,588.28 $10,681.33 +$11.81
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held
18 🟢 BUY Dec 18, 2025 9:30am ET $116.20 91 $10,574.19
🔴 SELL Dec 18, 2025 11:00am ET $116.58 91 $10,608.78 $10,715.92 +$34.59
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held
19 🟢 BUY Dec 19, 2025 1:30pm ET $116.64 91 $10,613.85
🔴 SELL Dec 19, 2025 2:55pm ET $116.66 91 $10,616.06 $10,718.13 +$2.21
(+0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
20 🟢 BUY Dec 23, 2025 2:55pm ET $119.42 89 $10,627.94
🔴 SELL Dec 24, 2025 9:35am ET $119.46 89 $10,631.94 $10,722.14 +$4.00
(+0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.7h held
21 🟢 BUY Dec 26, 2025 2:20pm ET $118.64 90 $10,677.60
🔴 SELL Dec 26, 2025 2:35pm ET $118.76 90 $10,687.95 $10,732.49 +$10.35
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held
22 🟢 BUY Dec 29, 2025 3:50pm ET $120.50 89 $10,724.50
🔴 SELL Dec 30, 2025 9:30am ET $121.41 89 $10,805.49 $10,813.48 +$80.99
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.7h held
23 🟢 BUY Dec 31, 2025 9:30am ET $120.70 89 $10,742.30
🔴 SELL Dec 31, 2025 11:50am ET $120.09 89 $10,687.57 $10,758.74 $-54.74
(-0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held
24 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 3:45pm ET $122.28 87 $10,638.58
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 3:55pm ET $122.64 87 $10,669.68 $10,789.84 +$31.10
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held
25 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 9:35am ET $124.58 86 $10,713.88
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 9:30am ET $119.13 86 $10,244.75 $10,320.71 $-469.13
(-4.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held
26 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 3:45pm ET $122.83 84 $10,317.72
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 9:30am ET $123.39 84 $10,364.76 $10,367.75 +$47.04
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held
27 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET $123.61 83 $10,259.63
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 9:35am ET $123.43 83 $10,244.69 $10,352.81 $-14.94
(-0.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
28 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 3:45pm ET $125.91 82 $10,324.21
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $126.47 82 $10,370.54 $10,399.14 +$46.33
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held
29 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 9:30am ET $128.61 80 $10,288.80
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2026 10:00am ET $130.05 80 $10,404.00 $10,514.34 +$115.20
(+1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
30 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 12:50pm ET $129.58 81 $10,495.58
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2026 1:00pm ET $129.81 81 $10,514.61 $10,533.38 +$19.04
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held
31 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 1:35pm ET $130.46 80 $10,436.80
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 2:15pm ET $130.62 80 $10,449.60 $10,546.18 +$12.80
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
42m held
32 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 9:30am ET $133.08 79 $10,513.32
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 9:35am ET $132.65 79 $10,479.35 $10,512.21 $-33.97
(-0.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
33 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 3:45pm ET $134.91 77 $10,387.69
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET $135.69 77 $10,448.13 $10,572.65 +$60.44
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held
34 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 1:50pm ET $136.14 77 $10,482.78
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 2:10pm ET $136.58 77 $10,516.66 $10,606.53 +$33.88
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held
35 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 11:50am ET $139.20 76 $10,579.20
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 12:20pm ET $139.82 76 $10,626.32 $10,653.65 +$47.12
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
36 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 12:20pm ET $138.62 76 $10,535.12
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 1:35pm ET $138.52 76 $10,527.59 $10,646.12 $-7.53
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
37 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 1:55pm ET $138.13 77 $10,636.01
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 2:45pm ET $138.96 77 $10,699.92 $10,710.03 +$63.91
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held
38 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET $144.62 74 $10,701.51
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 11:55am ET $144.54 74 $10,695.96 $10,704.48 $-5.55
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held
39 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 3:45pm ET $148.84 71 $10,567.64
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET $150.31 71 $10,672.01 $10,808.85 +$104.37
(+1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held
40 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 9:30am ET $150.35 71 $10,675.20
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 9:45am ET $150.85 71 $10,710.35 $10,844.00 +$35.15
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
41 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 1:50pm ET $155.49 69 $10,728.81
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 3:25pm ET $155.47 69 $10,727.43 $10,842.62 $-1.38
(-0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held
42 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:35am ET $147.63 73 $10,777.35
🔴 SELL Feb 17, 2026 11:10am ET $146.29 73 $10,679.53 $10,744.80 $-97.82
(-0.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held
43 🟢 BUY Feb 18, 2026 2:35pm ET $150.04 71 $10,652.84
🔴 SELL Feb 18, 2026 3:00pm ET $150.51 71 $10,685.86 $10,777.82 +$33.02
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
44 🟢 BUY Feb 19, 2026 3:45pm ET $151.40 71 $10,749.05
🔴 SELL Feb 20, 2026 9:30am ET $150.28 71 $10,669.89 $10,698.66 $-79.16
(-0.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held
45 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 9:35am ET $149.45 71 $10,610.95
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2026 11:10am ET $149.09 71 $10,585.47 $10,673.18 $-25.48
(-0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held
46 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET $147.70 72 $10,634.04
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 10:05am ET $148.65 72 $10,702.80 $10,741.94 +$68.76
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
47 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 9:40am ET $153.63 69 $10,600.13
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 11:05am ET $152.40 69 $10,515.60 $10,657.41 $-84.53
(-0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
48 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 1:50pm ET $149.44 71 $10,610.31
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 2:40pm ET $149.76 71 $10,632.96 $10,680.06 +$22.65
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held
49 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 3:35pm ET $151.29 70 $10,590.30
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 9:40am ET $152.30 70 $10,661.00 $10,750.76 +$70.70
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held
50 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 12:55pm ET $149.09 72 $10,734.12
🔴 SELL Mar 10, 2026 1:40pm ET $149.28 72 $10,748.16 $10,764.80 +$14.04
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
51 🟢 BUY Mar 12, 2026 1:10pm ET $153.93 69 $10,621.17
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 1:50pm ET $154.38 69 $10,652.56 $10,796.20 +$31.40
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
52 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2026 3:40pm ET $156.12 69 $10,772.28
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET $155.29 69 $10,715.01 $10,738.93 $-57.27
(-0.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held
53 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 1:25pm ET $159.50 67 $10,686.50
🔴 SELL Mar 17, 2026 3:20pm ET $159.44 67 $10,682.48 $10,734.91 $-4.02
(-0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held
54 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 3:35pm ET $158.28 67 $10,604.76
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 10:35am ET $157.19 67 $10,531.73 $10,661.88 $-73.03
(-0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
19h held
55 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 3:25pm ET $160.47 66 $10,591.02
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $155.32 66 $10,251.12 $10,321.98 $-339.90
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
56 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 3:05pm ET $164.98 62 $10,228.88
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 11:15am ET $164.42 62 $10,194.04 $10,287.14 $-34.84
(-0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20.2h held
57 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 3:25pm ET $169.72 60 $10,183.20
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 3:35pm ET $170.33 60 $10,219.80 $10,323.74 +$36.60
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
58 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 12:40pm ET $172.55 59 $10,180.74
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 2:25pm ET $168.16 59 $9,921.73 $10,064.73 $-259.01
(-2.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
59 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 1:45pm ET $162.08 62 $10,048.97
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 2:55pm ET $162.59 62 $10,080.77 $10,096.53 +$31.80
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
60 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 11:35am ET $156.99 64 $10,047.68
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 2:05pm ET $154.88 64 $9,912.32 $9,961.17 $-135.36
(-1.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.5h held
61 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 2:25pm ET $152.34 65 $9,902.10
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 2:50pm ET $152.59 65 $9,918.35 $9,977.42 +$16.25
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
62 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $149.77 66 $9,885.15
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET $147.62 66 $9,742.92 $9,835.19 $-142.23
(-1.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
63 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 9:40am ET $148.01 66 $9,768.66
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:45am ET $147.26 66 $9,719.16 $9,785.69 $-49.50
(-0.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
64 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 2:50pm ET $151.96 64 $9,725.44
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $144.38 64 $9,240.32 $9,300.57 $-485.12
(-5.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.7h held
65 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 2:50pm ET $148.49 62 $9,206.38
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 10:40am ET $146.98 62 $9,112.77 $9,206.96 $-93.61
(-1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
19.8h held
66 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 11:00am ET $149.24 61 $9,103.94
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 12:10pm ET $149.23 61 $9,103.03 $9,206.05 $-0.91
(-0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
67 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 1:55pm ET $150.97 60 $9,058.20
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 3:30pm ET $150.85 60 $9,051.00 $9,198.85 $-7.20
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held
68 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET $152.01 60 $9,120.60
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 9:55am ET $154.16 60 $9,249.60 $9,327.85 +$129.00
(+1.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
69 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 9:55am ET $152.40 61 $9,296.10
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 10:55am ET $153.26 61 $9,349.16 $9,380.92 +$53.07
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
70 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 3:10pm ET $153.05 61 $9,336.05
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 9:50am ET $153.65 61 $9,372.65 $9,417.52 +$36.60
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.7h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,417.52
Net Profit/Loss: $-582.48
Total Return: -5.82%
Back to Professor Mean