ADBE Professor Mean's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 52 trades in period
-8.34%
Year to Date Return
$8,233.23
Current Value
56%
Win Rate
$8,982.87
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
23.9 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-9.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
3.4%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
10
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.4/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.1/10
Raw Quality
10.5/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 10.5
30-Day Momentum
17
-0.8%
30d Return
64%
Win Rate
11
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 18.9
Conf: 0.90×
Steady (+7 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,264
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$8,982.87
Current Value
$8,233.23
Period P&L
$-749.61
Max Drawdown
-18.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.13
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
52
Winners / Losers
29 /
23
Best Trade
+2.69%
Worst Trade
-4.46%
Avg Trade Return
-0.16%
Avg Hold Time
4.7h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$856,446.67
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-749.61
Net P&L (after fees)
$-749.61
Gross Return
-8.34%
Net Return (after fees)
-8.34%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ADBE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 52 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $8,982.87 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $345.96 | 25 | $8,649.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $342.68 | 25 | $8,566.88 | $8,900.72 |
$-82.12 (-0.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 1:35pm ET | $332.79 | 26 | $8,652.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 1:55pm ET | $333.74 | 26 | $8,677.24 | $8,925.42 |
+$24.70 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 1:55pm ET | $339.80 | 26 | $8,834.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 2:05pm ET | $339.14 | 26 | $8,817.64 | $8,908.26 |
$-17.16 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 2:40pm ET | $340.00 | 26 | $8,840.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $331.48 | 26 | $8,618.48 | $8,686.74 |
$-221.52 (-2.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $325.71 | 26 | $8,468.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $325.37 | 26 | $8,459.62 | $8,677.90 |
$-8.84 (-0.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $320.98 | 27 | $8,666.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 2:30pm ET | $309.83 | 27 | $8,365.41 | $8,376.85 |
$-301.05 (-3.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
4.9h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $302.84 | 27 | $8,176.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 10:20am ET | $303.77 | 27 | $8,201.66 | $8,401.90 |
+$25.05 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 3:10pm ET | $296.71 | 28 | $8,307.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $292.98 | 28 | $8,203.44 | $8,297.53 |
$-104.37 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:05am ET | $289.67 | 28 | $8,110.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 10:25am ET | $291.39 | 28 | $8,158.92 | $8,345.83 |
+$48.30 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 11:40am ET | $298.70 | 27 | $8,064.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 2:00pm ET | $298.56 | 27 | $8,061.12 | $8,342.05 |
$-3.78 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 1:40pm ET | $304.26 | 27 | $8,215.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 2:30pm ET | $305.19 | 27 | $8,240.13 | $8,367.16 |
+$25.11 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 2:25pm ET | $297.95 | 28 | $8,342.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 2:30pm ET | $299.48 | 28 | $8,385.44 | $8,410.14 |
+$42.98 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
6m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 12:10pm ET | $291.79 | 28 | $8,169.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 12:40pm ET | $292.96 | 28 | $8,202.88 | $8,443.04 |
+$32.90 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 12:40pm ET | $294.66 | 28 | $8,250.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 3:20pm ET | $292.59 | 28 | $8,192.52 | $8,385.20 |
$-57.83 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $264.94 | 31 | $8,213.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 10:05am ET | $272.06 | 31 | $8,433.86 | $8,605.92 |
+$220.72 (+2.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
36m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 12:50pm ET | $270.92 | 31 | $8,398.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 2:05pm ET | $271.45 | 31 | $8,414.95 | $8,622.20 |
+$16.28 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 2:10pm ET | $266.81 | 32 | $8,537.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 2:20pm ET | $267.85 | 32 | $8,571.20 | $8,655.48 |
+$33.28 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 2:30pm ET | $267.80 | 32 | $8,569.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $266.64 | 32 | $8,532.48 | $8,618.36 |
$-37.12 (-0.4%) |
📅 Sim Ended
1.4h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $259.82 | 33 | $8,574.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $259.07 | 33 | $8,549.31 | $8,593.61 |
$-24.75 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:45am ET | $261.12 | 32 | $8,355.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 11:10am ET | $258.63 | 32 | $8,276.00 | $8,513.77 |
$-79.84 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 1:50pm ET | $260.67 | 32 | $8,341.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 2:25pm ET | $261.23 | 32 | $8,359.52 | $8,531.85 |
+$18.08 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 2:40pm ET | $257.51 | 33 | $8,497.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 3:10pm ET | $258.15 | 33 | $8,518.95 | $8,553.13 |
+$21.28 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $254.14 | 33 | $8,386.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 12:15pm ET | $246.35 | 33 | $8,129.55 | $8,296.06 |
$-257.07 (-3.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $252.16 | 32 | $8,069.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 10:00am ET | $254.68 | 32 | $8,149.76 | $8,376.70 |
+$80.64 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 11:25am ET | $258.87 | 32 | $8,283.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 1:35pm ET | $258.21 | 32 | $8,262.72 | $8,355.58 |
$-21.12 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.2h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $260.12 | 32 | $8,323.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 10:25am ET | $260.98 | 32 | $8,351.36 | $8,383.10 |
+$27.52 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 3:20pm ET | $270.08 | 31 | $8,372.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 3:50pm ET | $271.29 | 31 | $8,409.99 | $8,420.61 |
+$37.51 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 1:30pm ET | $280.64 | 30 | $8,419.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 2:10pm ET | $282.05 | 30 | $8,461.57 | $8,462.98 |
+$42.37 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $278.71 | 30 | $8,361.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 10:40am ET | $280.53 | 30 | $8,415.79 | $8,517.48 |
+$54.49 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 10:20am ET | $272.59 | 31 | $8,450.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 12:25pm ET | $271.21 | 31 | $8,407.51 | $8,474.70 |
$-42.78 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 2:55pm ET | $269.48 | 31 | $8,353.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 3:10pm ET | $270.16 | 31 | $8,374.96 | $8,495.78 |
+$21.08 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 3:10pm ET | $253.47 | 33 | $8,364.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 10:40am ET | $248.00 | 33 | $8,184.00 | $8,315.27 |
$-180.51 (-2.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 1:45pm ET | $254.07 | 32 | $8,130.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 2:45pm ET | $254.47 | 32 | $8,143.04 | $8,327.91 |
+$12.64 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 10:10am ET | $245.70 | 33 | $8,107.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 11:00am ET | $247.32 | 33 | $8,161.56 | $8,381.53 |
+$53.63 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 2:35pm ET | $246.61 | 33 | $8,138.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 2:45pm ET | $247.35 | 33 | $8,162.71 | $8,406.12 |
+$24.58 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $243.19 | 34 | $8,268.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 12:10pm ET | $239.04 | 34 | $8,127.36 | $8,265.02 |
$-141.10 (-1.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 1:50pm ET | $237.58 | 34 | $8,077.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 2:20pm ET | $238.22 | 34 | $8,099.48 | $8,286.78 |
+$21.76 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $236.38 | 35 | $8,273.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $235.64 | 35 | $8,247.40 | $8,260.88 |
$-25.90 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 1:35pm ET | $240.72 | 34 | $8,184.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:35pm ET | $240.36 | 34 | $8,172.24 | $8,248.64 |
$-12.24 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $241.96 | 34 | $8,226.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 10:40am ET | $240.85 | 34 | $8,188.90 | $8,210.90 |
$-37.74 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:10pm ET | $243.40 | 33 | $8,032.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 1:25pm ET | $244.10 | 33 | $8,055.14 | $8,233.84 |
+$22.94 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 1:25pm ET | $242.04 | 34 | $8,229.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $231.26 | 34 | $7,862.70 | $7,867.01 |
$-366.83 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.1h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $227.12 | 34 | $7,722.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 12:00pm ET | $225.88 | 34 | $7,679.75 | $7,824.68 |
$-42.33 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 3:10pm ET | $237.97 | 32 | $7,615.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 3:30pm ET | $239.24 | 32 | $7,655.68 | $7,865.32 |
+$40.64 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 2:15pm ET | $247.51 | 31 | $7,672.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 2:40pm ET | $248.13 | 31 | $7,691.91 | $7,884.42 |
+$19.10 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $246.35 | 32 | $7,883.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $246.17 | 32 | $7,877.44 | $7,878.79 |
$-5.63 (-0.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 1:40pm ET | $253.93 | 31 | $7,871.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 2:30pm ET | $254.82 | 31 | $7,899.42 | $7,906.38 |
+$27.59 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $240.71 | 32 | $7,702.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:50am ET | $245.70 | 32 | $7,862.40 | $8,065.90 |
+$159.52 (+2.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $240.97 | 33 | $7,952.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $240.24 | 33 | $7,928.08 | $8,041.97 |
$-23.93 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $238.88 | 33 | $7,883.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 10:30am ET | $240.86 | 33 | $7,948.38 | $8,107.31 |
+$65.34 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $249.37 | 32 | $7,979.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:50am ET | $250.46 | 32 | $8,014.88 | $8,142.35 |
+$35.04 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $250.76 | 32 | $8,024.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 10:25am ET | $253.60 | 32 | $8,115.20 | $8,233.23 |
+$90.88 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,233.23
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,766.77
Total Return:
-17.67%