ARKK Professor Mean's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 49 trades in period
-2.54%
Year to Date Return
$10,626.34
Current Value
53%
Win Rate
$10,903.32
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
23
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
1.3/35
Total Return
7.2/25
Win Rate
7.6/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
6.9/10
Raw Quality
23.5/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 23.4
30-Day Momentum
17
-1.9%
30d Return
62%
Win Rate
13
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 18.1
Conf: 0.95×
Cooling (-6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,698
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$10,903.32
Current Value
$10,626.34
Period P&L
$-276.97
Max Drawdown
-16.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.07
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
49
Winners / Losers
26 /
23
Best Trade
+1.67%
Worst Trade
-1.92%
Avg Trade Return
-0.05%
Avg Hold Time
5.2h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,066,701.08
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-276.97
Net P&L (after fees)
$-276.97
Gross Return
-2.54%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.54%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 49 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $10,903.32 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 1:15pm ET | $80.74 | 135 | $10,899.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 1:40pm ET | $81.03 | 135 | $10,939.05 | $10,942.47 |
+$39.15 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $81.36 | 134 | $10,902.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 11:00am ET | $81.50 | 134 | $10,921.00 | $10,961.23 |
+$18.76 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 2:35pm ET | $80.53 | 136 | $10,951.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 3:40pm ET | $80.60 | 136 | $10,961.60 | $10,971.43 |
+$10.20 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 12:30pm ET | $82.03 | 133 | $10,909.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 1:40pm ET | $82.21 | 133 | $10,933.27 | $10,994.70 |
+$23.27 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 9:40am ET | $82.66 | 133 | $10,993.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 9:50am ET | $83.31 | 133 | $11,080.23 | $11,081.15 |
+$86.45 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 2:30pm ET | $82.92 | 133 | $11,028.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 10:05am ET | $82.51 | 133 | $10,973.83 | $11,026.62 |
$-54.53 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.6h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 1:35pm ET | $79.73 | 138 | $11,002.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $79.64 | 138 | $10,989.63 | $11,013.51 |
$-13.11 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.9h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 3:25pm ET | $82.06 | 134 | $10,996.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $81.61 | 134 | $10,935.74 | $10,953.21 |
$-60.30 (-0.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.1h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $79.83 | 137 | $10,936.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 10:15am ET | $80.68 | 137 | $11,053.16 | $11,069.66 |
+$116.45 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 10:10am ET | $79.43 | 139 | $11,040.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 12:05pm ET | $79.33 | 139 | $11,026.87 | $11,055.76 |
$-13.90 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 2:30pm ET | $77.07 | 143 | $11,021.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 3:40pm ET | $77.27 | 143 | $11,048.90 | $11,083.65 |
+$27.89 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $74.28 | 149 | $11,067.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 10:15am ET | $74.74 | 149 | $11,135.52 | $11,151.44 |
+$67.80 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 11:20am ET | $73.44 | 151 | $11,089.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 2:15pm ET | $72.60 | 151 | $10,962.60 | $11,024.60 |
$-126.84 (-1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.9h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $68.73 | 160 | $10,996.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 11:20am ET | $67.72 | 160 | $10,835.20 | $10,863.00 |
$-161.60 (-1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 1:20pm ET | $69.92 | 155 | $10,836.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 2:20pm ET | $70.08 | 155 | $10,862.40 | $10,888.58 |
+$25.58 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $72.43 | 150 | $10,863.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $72.89 | 150 | $10,933.50 | $10,958.33 |
+$69.75 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $71.68 | 152 | $10,895.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $71.38 | 152 | $10,849.76 | $10,912.73 |
$-45.60 (-0.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $69.48 | 157 | $10,908.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 10:50am ET | $69.29 | 157 | $10,878.53 | $10,882.90 |
$-29.83 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 1:20pm ET | $71.84 | 151 | $10,847.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 3:40pm ET | $71.42 | 151 | $10,784.42 | $10,819.48 |
$-63.42 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 12:15pm ET | $71.39 | 151 | $10,780.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 1:35pm ET | $71.47 | 151 | $10,791.97 | $10,830.81 |
+$11.33 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 3:25pm ET | $73.73 | 146 | $10,764.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 10:45am ET | $73.44 | 146 | $10,722.24 | $10,788.47 |
$-42.34 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.3h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 11:40am ET | $72.43 | 148 | $10,719.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 2:05pm ET | $72.36 | 148 | $10,709.28 | $10,778.11 |
$-10.36 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $71.45 | 150 | $10,717.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 11:05am ET | $71.04 | 150 | $10,656.00 | $10,716.61 |
$-61.50 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 1:25pm ET | $74.72 | 143 | $10,684.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 1:40pm ET | $74.90 | 143 | $10,710.70 | $10,742.35 |
+$25.74 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $72.06 | 149 | $10,736.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 10:35am ET | $73.01 | 149 | $10,878.49 | $10,883.90 |
+$141.55 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 2:15pm ET | $73.29 | 148 | $10,846.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $73.19 | 148 | $10,832.12 | $10,869.10 |
$-14.80 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $72.20 | 150 | $10,830.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 11:40am ET | $71.50 | 150 | $10,724.70 | $10,763.80 |
$-105.30 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.2h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 1:50pm ET | $70.10 | 153 | $10,725.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 2:45pm ET | $70.24 | 153 | $10,746.72 | $10,785.22 |
+$21.42 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 11:40am ET | $72.47 | 148 | $10,725.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 12:25pm ET | $72.81 | 148 | $10,775.14 | $10,834.80 |
+$49.58 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 12:35pm ET | $72.05 | 150 | $10,807.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 1:20pm ET | $72.21 | 150 | $10,831.50 | $10,858.80 |
+$24.00 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:55am ET | $69.89 | 155 | $10,832.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 10:50am ET | $70.44 | 155 | $10,918.20 | $10,944.05 |
+$85.25 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:55am ET | $70.50 | 155 | $10,927.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 1:35pm ET | $70.60 | 155 | $10,943.00 | $10,959.55 |
+$15.50 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:10am ET | $70.35 | 155 | $10,904.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 12:30pm ET | $70.19 | 155 | $10,879.45 | $10,934.75 |
$-24.80 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 12:30pm ET | $68.14 | 160 | $10,903.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 3:40pm ET | $67.64 | 160 | $10,821.60 | $10,853.15 |
$-81.60 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.2h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 1:15pm ET | $63.67 | 170 | $10,824.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 2:35pm ET | $63.61 | 170 | $10,813.70 | $10,842.10 |
$-11.05 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:05pm ET | $68.67 | 157 | $10,780.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 3:20pm ET | $68.57 | 157 | $10,765.49 | $10,827.18 |
$-14.92 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:05pm ET | $68.69 | 157 | $10,784.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 2:20pm ET | $68.87 | 157 | $10,812.59 | $10,855.44 |
+$28.26 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 3:05pm ET | $67.80 | 160 | $10,848.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:20pm ET | $68.45 | 160 | $10,952.00 | $10,959.44 |
+$104.00 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $69.38 | 157 | $10,892.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 11:15am ET | $69.13 | 157 | $10,853.41 | $10,920.19 |
$-39.25 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 11:50am ET | $68.95 | 158 | $10,894.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 12:55pm ET | $69.04 | 158 | $10,908.32 | $10,934.41 |
+$14.22 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:05pm ET | $74.57 | 146 | $10,887.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 3:05pm ET | $74.62 | 146 | $10,894.52 | $10,941.71 |
+$7.30 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:55am ET | $75.90 | 144 | $10,929.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 10:00am ET | $77.17 | 144 | $11,112.48 | $11,124.59 |
+$182.88 (+1.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:25pm ET | $79.30 | 140 | $11,102.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 2:50pm ET | $79.37 | 140 | $11,111.80 | $11,134.39 |
+$9.80 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 11:00am ET | $78.60 | 141 | $11,082.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 12:45pm ET | $78.63 | 141 | $11,086.83 | $11,138.62 |
+$4.23 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $78.49 | 141 | $11,066.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 10:55am ET | $77.91 | 141 | $10,985.31 | $11,057.55 |
$-81.07 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 2:50pm ET | $76.51 | 144 | $11,018.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $75.09 | 144 | $10,812.96 | $10,852.35 |
$-205.20 (-1.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.7h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $74.14 | 146 | $10,824.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 11:25am ET | $73.41 | 146 | $10,717.86 | $10,745.77 |
$-106.58 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 2:55pm ET | $76.87 | 139 | $10,684.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $77.50 | 139 | $10,772.50 | $10,833.34 |
+$87.57 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $78.07 | 138 | $10,772.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 1:55pm ET | $76.57 | 138 | $10,565.97 | $10,626.34 |
$-207.00 (-1.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
4.4h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,626.34
Net Profit/Loss:
+$626.34
Total Return:
+6.26%