CVX Professor Mean's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 51 trades in period
-2.61%
Year to Date Return
$10,610.47
Current Value
59%
Win Rate
$10,894.28
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
71.5 overbought
20d Trend
+9.1%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
+4.3%
ATR%
2.0%
Range Pos
90%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
26
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
4.4/35
Total Return
7.4/25
Win Rate
7.6/15
Profit Factor
0.9/15
Consistency
6.2/10
Raw Quality
26.5/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 26.1
30-Day Momentum
12
-2.3%
30d Return
46%
Win Rate
13
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 12.3
Conf: 0.95×
Declining (-14 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,285
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$10,894.28
Current Value
$10,610.47
Period P&L
$-283.85
Max Drawdown
-5.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.06
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
51
Winners / Losers
30 /
21
Best Trade
+1.51%
Worst Trade
-2.11%
Avg Trade Return
-0.05%
Avg Hold Time
5.2h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,117,184.07
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-283.85
Net P&L (after fees)
$-283.85
Gross Return
-2.61%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.61%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 CVX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 51 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $10,894.28 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 2:35pm ET | $164.52 | 66 | $10,858.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $162.37 | 66 | $10,716.09 | $10,752.07 |
$-142.23 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $155.68 | 69 | $10,741.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 10:45am ET | $156.39 | 69 | $10,790.91 | $10,801.41 |
+$49.33 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 3:55pm ET | $159.25 | 67 | $10,669.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $160.40 | 67 | $10,746.80 | $10,878.46 |
+$77.05 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $161.36 | 67 | $10,810.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:55am ET | $162.08 | 67 | $10,859.12 | $10,926.79 |
+$48.33 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 2:20pm ET | $164.96 | 66 | $10,887.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $165.59 | 66 | $10,928.61 | $10,968.04 |
+$41.25 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.2h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $165.46 | 66 | $10,920.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 10:45am ET | $166.58 | 66 | $10,994.29 | $11,041.97 |
+$73.93 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 2:30pm ET | $166.28 | 66 | $10,974.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 3:45pm ET | $166.39 | 66 | $10,981.74 | $11,049.23 |
+$7.26 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 3:55pm ET | $165.30 | 66 | $10,909.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $167.80 | 66 | $11,074.80 | $11,214.23 |
+$165.00 (+1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $166.17 | 67 | $11,133.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 10:40am ET | $166.33 | 67 | $11,144.10 | $11,225.01 |
+$10.78 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 3:35pm ET | $167.00 | 67 | $11,188.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 3:50pm ET | $166.54 | 67 | $11,158.18 | $11,194.53 |
$-30.49 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 1:50pm ET | $167.81 | 66 | $11,075.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 2:10pm ET | $168.38 | 66 | $11,113.32 | $11,232.39 |
+$37.86 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 2:25pm ET | $168.82 | 66 | $11,142.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 2:45pm ET | $169.46 | 66 | $11,184.36 | $11,274.63 |
+$42.24 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 2:50pm ET | $172.25 | 65 | $11,196.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 2:55pm ET | $171.24 | 65 | $11,130.60 | $11,208.98 |
$-65.65 (-0.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $173.53 | 64 | $11,105.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 10:35am ET | $174.73 | 64 | $11,182.72 | $11,285.78 |
+$76.80 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $178.29 | 63 | $11,232.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 11:55am ET | $178.38 | 63 | $11,238.25 | $11,291.76 |
+$5.99 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 3:05pm ET | $180.38 | 62 | $11,183.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 3:50pm ET | $180.95 | 62 | $11,218.90 | $11,327.41 |
+$35.65 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $181.76 | 62 | $11,269.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 11:00am ET | $181.60 | 62 | $11,259.20 | $11,317.49 |
$-9.92 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 12:55pm ET | $185.20 | 61 | $11,296.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 2:20pm ET | $185.28 | 61 | $11,302.08 | $11,322.68 |
+$5.18 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $183.12 | 61 | $11,170.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 11:10am ET | $179.76 | 61 | $10,965.35 | $11,117.71 |
$-204.97 (-1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 1:05pm ET | $185.29 | 60 | $11,117.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 1:55pm ET | $185.76 | 60 | $11,145.60 | $11,145.91 |
+$28.20 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 2:10pm ET | $184.17 | 60 | $11,050.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 2:50pm ET | $184.57 | 60 | $11,074.20 | $11,169.91 |
+$24.00 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 9:50am ET | $184.11 | 60 | $11,046.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 11:15am ET | $183.46 | 60 | $11,007.30 | $11,130.61 |
$-39.30 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 1:30pm ET | $184.68 | 60 | $11,080.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 3:05pm ET | $184.49 | 60 | $11,069.40 | $11,119.21 |
$-11.40 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:45am ET | $187.90 | 59 | $11,086.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 10:00am ET | $189.14 | 59 | $11,159.26 | $11,192.37 |
+$73.16 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 10:00am ET | $184.38 | 60 | $11,062.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 10:55am ET | $186.11 | 60 | $11,166.60 | $11,296.17 |
+$103.80 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 12:50pm ET | $188.12 | 60 | $11,287.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 1:45pm ET | $188.92 | 60 | $11,335.20 | $11,344.17 |
+$48.00 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $186.87 | 60 | $11,212.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 10:25am ET | $188.52 | 60 | $11,311.20 | $11,443.17 |
+$99.00 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $196.00 | 58 | $11,368.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 11:40am ET | $195.95 | 58 | $11,365.10 | $11,440.27 |
$-2.90 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.2h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 11:45am ET | $196.69 | 58 | $11,408.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 1:10pm ET | $196.89 | 58 | $11,419.62 | $11,451.87 |
+$11.60 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 1:25pm ET | $198.93 | 57 | $11,338.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 3:20pm ET | $198.74 | 57 | $11,327.90 | $11,441.04 |
$-10.83 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $199.00 | 57 | $11,343.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $199.84 | 57 | $11,390.88 | $11,488.67 |
+$47.63 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 3:45pm ET | $202.91 | 56 | $11,362.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $198.63 | 56 | $11,123.00 | $11,248.71 |
$-239.96 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 12:55pm ET | $207.99 | 54 | $11,231.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 11:00am ET | $205.88 | 54 | $11,117.52 | $11,134.87 |
$-113.84 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
22.1h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 2:40pm ET | $208.16 | 53 | $11,032.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 2:55pm ET | $208.68 | 53 | $11,060.04 | $11,162.44 |
+$27.57 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 12:25pm ET | $212.55 | 52 | $11,052.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:55pm ET | $211.27 | 52 | $10,986.30 | $11,096.22 |
$-66.22 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.5h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $202.17 | 54 | $10,917.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 11:45am ET | $198.51 | 54 | $10,719.54 | $10,898.58 |
$-197.64 (-1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 11:55am ET | $198.82 | 54 | $10,736.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 1:10pm ET | $199.47 | 54 | $10,771.38 | $10,933.68 |
+$35.10 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 2:35pm ET | $198.49 | 55 | $10,916.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 3:30pm ET | $198.68 | 55 | $10,927.67 | $10,944.40 |
+$10.72 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $191.37 | 57 | $10,907.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $188.88 | 57 | $10,766.16 | $10,802.75 |
$-141.65 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 11:15am ET | $194.45 | 55 | $10,694.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 2:10pm ET | $190.72 | 55 | $10,489.60 | $10,597.60 |
$-205.15 (-1.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.9h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 3:15pm ET | $190.33 | 55 | $10,468.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 3:45pm ET | $191.07 | 55 | $10,508.85 | $10,638.30 |
+$40.70 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $185.15 | 57 | $10,553.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:45am ET | $184.54 | 57 | $10,518.78 | $10,603.53 |
$-34.77 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 2:50pm ET | $187.51 | 56 | $10,500.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 3:15pm ET | $187.92 | 56 | $10,523.52 | $10,626.21 |
+$22.68 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 11:25am ET | $184.47 | 57 | $10,514.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 1:00pm ET | $184.17 | 57 | $10,497.69 | $10,609.11 |
$-17.10 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 3:40pm ET | $186.74 | 56 | $10,457.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $187.27 | 56 | $10,487.40 | $10,639.07 |
+$29.96 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $185.69 | 57 | $10,584.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 12:30pm ET | $184.33 | 57 | $10,506.81 | $10,561.55 |
$-77.52 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 1:55pm ET | $188.34 | 56 | $10,547.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 3:35pm ET | $188.20 | 56 | $10,539.20 | $10,553.71 |
$-7.84 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $189.65 | 55 | $10,430.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:45am ET | $191.89 | 55 | $10,553.95 | $10,677.18 |
+$123.47 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 10:00am ET | $191.40 | 55 | $10,527.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 11:00am ET | $192.20 | 55 | $10,570.73 | $10,720.91 |
+$43.73 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 3:10pm ET | $191.67 | 55 | $10,541.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $191.03 | 55 | $10,506.65 | $10,685.71 |
$-35.20 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $185.77 | 57 | $10,588.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 11:20am ET | $184.45 | 57 | $10,513.65 | $10,610.47 |
$-75.24 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,610.47
Net Profit/Loss:
+$610.47
Total Return:
+6.10%