MS Professor Mean's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 50 trades in period
+13.11%
Year to Date Return
$12,394.65
Current Value
72%
Win Rate
$10,958.01
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
39 neutral
20d Trend
-6.5%
5d Trend
-4.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.4%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
56%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026
37
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
8.7/35
Total Return
11.6/25
Win Rate
8.1/15
Profit Factor
2.5/15
Consistency
6.2/10
Raw Quality
37.0/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 36.6
30-Day Momentum
67
+6.2%
30d Return
86%
Win Rate
14
Trades
10.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 68.6
Conf: 0.98×
Accelerating (+30 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,201
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
89 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$10,958.01
Current Value
$12,394.65
Period P&L
$1,436.60
Max Drawdown
-9.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.27
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
50
Winners / Losers
36 /
14
Best Trade
+2.74%
Worst Trade
-3.39%
Avg Trade Return
+0.25%
Avg Hold Time
5.5h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,118,621.48
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,436.60
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,436.60
Gross Return
+13.11%
Net Return (after fees)
+13.11%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 89 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 50 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $10,958.01 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 2:35pm ET | $187.56 | 58 | $10,878.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 9:55am ET | $186.84 | 58 | $10,836.80 | $10,916.37 |
$-41.68 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.3h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $185.52 | 58 | $10,760.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 11:40am ET | $185.33 | 58 | $10,749.14 | $10,905.35 |
$-11.02 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 1:35pm ET | $185.36 | 58 | $10,750.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 3:20pm ET | $185.19 | 58 | $10,741.02 | $10,895.49 |
$-9.86 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $184.52 | 59 | $10,886.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 11:15am ET | $184.78 | 59 | $10,902.02 | $10,910.83 |
+$15.34 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 1:00pm ET | $182.67 | 59 | $10,777.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 1:35pm ET | $183.40 | 59 | $10,820.60 | $10,953.90 |
+$43.07 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
36m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 3:45pm ET | $179.91 | 60 | $10,794.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 3:50pm ET | $180.77 | 60 | $10,846.20 | $11,005.50 |
+$51.60 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
6m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 2:20pm ET | $190.99 | 57 | $10,886.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $184.51 | 57 | $10,517.08 | $10,636.23 |
$-369.27 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 12:10pm ET | $182.12 | 58 | $10,562.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 12:55pm ET | $182.80 | 58 | $10,602.40 | $10,675.67 |
+$39.44 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 1:20pm ET | $184.45 | 57 | $10,513.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $179.71 | 57 | $10,243.47 | $10,405.49 |
$-270.18 (-2.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.2h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 3:55pm ET | $182.70 | 56 | $10,231.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 11:35am ET | $181.60 | 56 | $10,169.60 | $10,343.89 |
$-61.60 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.7h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $181.00 | 57 | $10,317.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 9:55am ET | $181.83 | 57 | $10,364.31 | $10,391.20 |
+$47.31 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 3:30pm ET | $184.65 | 56 | $10,340.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 3:35pm ET | $184.48 | 56 | $10,330.74 | $10,381.54 |
$-9.66 (-0.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:50am ET | $180.42 | 57 | $10,283.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 10:20am ET | $182.05 | 57 | $10,377.13 | $10,474.73 |
+$93.19 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 3:45pm ET | $175.18 | 59 | $10,335.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $179.99 | 59 | $10,619.12 | $10,758.23 |
+$283.50 (+2.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 1:15pm ET | $182.64 | 58 | $10,593.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 1:35pm ET | $183.06 | 58 | $10,617.48 | $10,782.59 |
+$24.36 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:40pm ET | $174.15 | 61 | $10,623.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 2:25pm ET | $175.65 | 61 | $10,714.95 | $10,874.40 |
+$91.81 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 12:40pm ET | $171.10 | 63 | $10,779.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 1:45pm ET | $171.85 | 63 | $10,826.55 | $10,921.65 |
+$47.25 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 3:45pm ET | $175.74 | 62 | $10,895.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $174.88 | 62 | $10,842.87 | $10,868.64 |
$-53.01 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $172.54 | 62 | $10,697.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 10:05am ET | $173.71 | 62 | $10,770.02 | $10,941.18 |
+$72.54 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 10:05am ET | $170.26 | 64 | $10,896.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 12:55pm ET | $167.45 | 64 | $10,716.80 | $10,761.34 |
$-179.84 (-1.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 3:15pm ET | $173.37 | 62 | $10,748.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 3:50pm ET | $173.73 | 62 | $10,770.95 | $10,783.35 |
+$22.01 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $173.58 | 62 | $10,761.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $173.24 | 62 | $10,741.19 | $10,762.58 |
$-20.77 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $164.77 | 65 | $10,710.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:45am ET | $166.87 | 65 | $10,846.55 | $10,899.08 |
+$136.50 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:45am ET | $161.05 | 67 | $10,790.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 11:05am ET | $161.81 | 67 | $10,841.27 | $10,949.67 |
+$50.59 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $165.97 | 65 | $10,788.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $167.65 | 65 | $10,896.93 | $11,058.55 |
+$108.88 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:40am ET | $156.37 | 70 | $10,945.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 10:35am ET | $159.43 | 70 | $11,160.10 | $11,273.10 |
+$214.55 (+2.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 12:05pm ET | $161.73 | 69 | $11,159.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $162.35 | 69 | $11,202.49 | $11,316.23 |
+$43.13 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $153.64 | 73 | $11,215.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 11:30am ET | $154.69 | 73 | $11,292.37 | $11,392.88 |
+$76.65 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 1:35pm ET | $154.46 | 73 | $11,275.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 1:45pm ET | $154.05 | 73 | $11,246.01 | $11,363.31 |
$-29.57 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $157.57 | 72 | $11,345.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 9:50am ET | $158.40 | 72 | $11,404.80 | $11,422.71 |
+$59.40 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 2:30pm ET | $161.39 | 70 | $11,297.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 3:55pm ET | $161.58 | 70 | $11,310.60 | $11,436.01 |
+$13.30 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $162.63 | 70 | $11,384.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 10:35am ET | $164.57 | 70 | $11,519.55 | $11,571.46 |
+$135.45 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:10am ET | $164.52 | 70 | $11,516.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 12:15pm ET | $165.52 | 70 | $11,586.40 | $11,641.46 |
+$70.00 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 12:30pm ET | $163.29 | 71 | $11,593.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 2:10pm ET | $163.43 | 71 | $11,603.18 | $11,651.05 |
+$9.59 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 3:10pm ET | $157.76 | 73 | $11,516.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 3:35pm ET | $158.41 | 73 | $11,563.93 | $11,698.86 |
+$47.81 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:00pm ET | $166.74 | 70 | $11,671.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 3:30pm ET | $166.39 | 70 | $11,647.30 | $11,674.36 |
$-24.50 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:15pm ET | $166.34 | 70 | $11,643.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 2:10pm ET | $166.60 | 70 | $11,662.35 | $11,693.26 |
+$18.90 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 2:55pm ET | $167.21 | 69 | $11,537.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:20pm ET | $168.15 | 69 | $11,602.35 | $11,758.12 |
+$64.86 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $175.31 | 67 | $11,745.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $176.19 | 67 | $11,804.73 | $11,817.08 |
+$58.96 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $176.74 | 66 | $11,664.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 10:55am ET | $176.67 | 66 | $11,660.22 | $11,812.46 |
$-4.62 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:25pm ET | $183.52 | 64 | $11,745.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 3:05pm ET | $184.13 | 64 | $11,784.64 | $11,851.50 |
+$39.04 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 3:45pm ET | $191.16 | 61 | $11,661.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 3:55pm ET | $191.85 | 61 | $11,702.85 | $11,893.29 |
+$41.79 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $187.22 | 63 | $11,794.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $190.17 | 63 | $11,980.71 | $12,079.14 |
+$185.85 (+1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $188.46 | 64 | $12,061.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $191.13 | 64 | $12,232.32 | $12,250.34 |
+$171.20 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 11:05am ET | $189.88 | 64 | $12,152.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 12:30pm ET | $190.10 | 64 | $12,166.72 | $12,264.42 |
+$14.08 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 1:55pm ET | $191.13 | 64 | $12,232.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 2:30pm ET | $191.41 | 64 | $12,250.56 | $12,282.34 |
+$17.92 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 3:50pm ET | $188.13 | 65 | $12,228.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $188.87 | 65 | $12,276.55 | $12,330.12 |
+$47.78 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.7h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 3:35pm ET | $189.85 | 64 | $12,150.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $190.51 | 64 | $12,192.32 | $12,372.36 |
+$42.24 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.9h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 11:55am ET | $191.39 | 64 | $12,248.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 1:15pm ET | $191.18 | 64 | $12,235.52 | $12,359.23 |
$-13.13 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 2:45pm ET | $187.69 | 65 | $12,199.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 3:15pm ET | $188.24 | 65 | $12,235.28 | $12,394.65 |
+$35.42 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,394.65
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,394.65
Total Return:
+23.95%