MSFT Professor Mean's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 48 trades in period
-6.50%
Year to Date Return
$9,614.86
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$10,283.40
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
13
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
12.6/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 12.5
30-Day Momentum
25
+1.2%
30d Return
55%
Win Rate
11
Trades
1.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 27.9
Conf: 0.90×
Accelerating (+13 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,438
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$10,283.40
Current Value
$9,614.86
Period P&L
$-668.47
Max Drawdown
-10.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.17
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
48
Winners / Losers
24 /
24
Best Trade
+1.40%
Worst Trade
-2.28%
Avg Trade Return
-0.14%
Avg Hold Time
7.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$914,732.09
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-668.47
Net P&L (after fees)
$-668.47
Gross Return
-6.50%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.50%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 48 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $10,283.40 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $482.32 | 21 | $10,128.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $480.15 | 21 | $10,083.15 | $10,237.79 |
$-45.53 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 1:05pm ET | $473.98 | 21 | $9,953.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 1:45pm ET | $475.19 | 21 | $9,978.89 | $10,263.09 |
+$25.30 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
42m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 1:55pm ET | $487.58 | 21 | $10,239.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 2:00pm ET | $486.79 | 21 | $10,222.59 | $10,246.50 |
$-16.59 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 2:10pm ET | $476.49 | 21 | $10,006.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 3:10pm ET | $477.66 | 21 | $10,030.76 | $10,270.97 |
+$24.46 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 10:25am ET | $478.59 | 21 | $10,050.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 11:10am ET | $479.46 | 21 | $10,068.66 | $10,289.24 |
+$18.27 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 12:55pm ET | $467.69 | 22 | $10,289.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 3:00pm ET | $467.91 | 22 | $10,293.91 | $10,293.97 |
+$4.73 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 10:45am ET | $457.65 | 22 | $10,068.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 10:55am ET | $459.46 | 22 | $10,108.12 | $10,333.90 |
+$39.93 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 3:20pm ET | $461.27 | 22 | $10,147.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $451.40 | 22 | $9,930.69 | $10,116.64 |
$-217.25 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $450.65 | 22 | $9,914.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $449.43 | 22 | $9,887.37 | $10,089.72 |
$-26.93 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 2:45pm ET | $450.53 | 22 | $9,911.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 3:45pm ET | $450.90 | 22 | $9,919.80 | $10,097.86 |
+$8.14 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $465.81 | 21 | $9,782.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 9:45am ET | $467.70 | 21 | $9,821.70 | $10,137.55 |
+$39.69 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 3:25pm ET | $480.60 | 21 | $10,092.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 9:45am ET | $481.31 | 21 | $10,107.51 | $10,152.46 |
+$14.91 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:45am ET | $432.38 | 23 | $9,944.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 11:35am ET | $425.12 | 23 | $9,777.76 | $9,985.48 |
$-166.98 (-1.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 3:00pm ET | $428.52 | 23 | $9,855.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 3:05pm ET | $427.64 | 23 | $9,835.72 | $9,965.24 |
$-20.24 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $416.55 | 23 | $9,580.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 1:05pm ET | $412.42 | 23 | $9,485.77 | $9,870.25 |
$-94.99 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.6h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 3:25pm ET | $415.16 | 23 | $9,548.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $405.70 | 23 | $9,331.10 | $9,652.67 |
$-217.58 (-2.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.1h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 3:30pm ET | $412.59 | 23 | $9,489.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:45pm ET | $414.33 | 23 | $9,529.56 | $9,692.64 |
+$39.97 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $409.70 | 23 | $9,423.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 12:20pm ET | $403.39 | 23 | $9,277.90 | $9,547.44 |
$-145.20 (-1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $398.99 | 23 | $9,176.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 10:55am ET | $398.06 | 23 | $9,155.38 | $9,525.94 |
$-21.50 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 1:45pm ET | $400.43 | 23 | $9,209.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 2:25pm ET | $400.97 | 23 | $9,222.31 | $9,538.36 |
+$12.42 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 2:40pm ET | $397.00 | 24 | $9,527.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 3:30pm ET | $397.46 | 24 | $9,539.04 | $9,549.44 |
+$11.08 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $394.75 | 24 | $9,474.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 12:25pm ET | $386.46 | 24 | $9,275.16 | $9,350.60 |
$-198.84 (-2.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.9h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $390.58 | 23 | $8,983.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 11:00am ET | $396.05 | 23 | $9,109.04 | $9,476.30 |
+$125.70 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 1:55pm ET | $398.79 | 23 | $9,172.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 2:20pm ET | $400.45 | 23 | $9,210.35 | $9,514.59 |
+$38.29 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 3:25pm ET | $403.40 | 23 | $9,278.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $400.68 | 23 | $9,215.64 | $9,452.03 |
$-62.56 (-0.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.1h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $404.76 | 23 | $9,309.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:45am ET | $409.12 | 23 | $9,409.76 | $9,552.31 |
+$100.28 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 12:40pm ET | $409.73 | 23 | $9,423.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 1:15pm ET | $410.88 | 23 | $9,450.13 | $9,578.64 |
+$26.33 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 1:20pm ET | $405.94 | 23 | $9,336.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 2:35pm ET | $405.84 | 23 | $9,334.32 | $9,576.34 |
$-2.30 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:55am ET | $402.64 | 23 | $9,260.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 10:15am ET | $404.63 | 23 | $9,306.38 | $9,621.99 |
+$45.65 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 2:15pm ET | $398.83 | 24 | $9,571.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 3:15pm ET | $399.15 | 24 | $9,579.72 | $9,629.91 |
+$7.92 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 3:45pm ET | $391.07 | 24 | $9,385.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 11:00am ET | $390.14 | 24 | $9,363.24 | $9,607.47 |
$-22.44 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.3h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 2:25pm ET | $382.27 | 25 | $9,556.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $384.50 | 25 | $9,612.50 | $9,663.10 |
+$55.63 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $381.88 | 25 | $9,547.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $380.00 | 25 | $9,500.00 | $9,616.10 |
$-47.00 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:10am ET | $372.11 | 25 | $9,302.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 12:35pm ET | $371.11 | 25 | $9,277.63 | $9,591.04 |
$-25.06 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 1:50pm ET | $366.73 | 26 | $9,535.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 3:50pm ET | $366.23 | 26 | $9,521.98 | $9,577.91 |
$-13.13 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 12:45pm ET | $360.89 | 26 | $9,383.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 2:35pm ET | $359.43 | 26 | $9,345.18 | $9,539.95 |
$-37.96 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 1:35pm ET | $371.38 | 25 | $9,284.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 3:25pm ET | $369.67 | 25 | $9,241.87 | $9,497.32 |
$-42.63 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $370.46 | 25 | $9,261.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $370.25 | 25 | $9,256.25 | $9,492.07 |
$-5.25 (-0.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 1:20pm ET | $377.46 | 25 | $9,436.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 3:50pm ET | $373.05 | 25 | $9,326.25 | $9,381.78 |
$-110.29 (-1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.5h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:00pm ET | $392.90 | 23 | $9,036.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 3:15pm ET | $392.11 | 23 | $9,018.42 | $9,363.50 |
$-18.28 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:10pm ET | $425.93 | 21 | $8,944.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 3:25pm ET | $422.85 | 21 | $8,879.75 | $9,298.72 |
$-64.78 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 1:20pm ET | $423.56 | 21 | $8,894.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 1:40pm ET | $425.97 | 21 | $8,945.37 | $9,349.36 |
+$50.64 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 2:30pm ET | $430.64 | 21 | $9,043.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 2:50pm ET | $431.77 | 21 | $9,067.07 | $9,373.09 |
+$23.73 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $417.75 | 22 | $9,190.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 10:25am ET | $423.10 | 22 | $9,308.20 | $9,490.79 |
+$117.70 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 2:05pm ET | $427.08 | 22 | $9,395.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 3:00pm ET | $427.35 | 22 | $9,401.70 | $9,496.62 |
+$5.83 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $410.24 | 23 | $9,435.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $409.40 | 23 | $9,416.20 | $9,477.30 |
$-19.32 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $411.52 | 23 | $9,464.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:45am ET | $417.03 | 23 | $9,591.69 | $9,604.05 |
+$126.75 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:50am ET | $410.85 | 23 | $9,449.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 11:05am ET | $411.32 | 23 | $9,460.36 | $9,614.86 |
+$10.81 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,614.86
Net Profit/Loss:
$-385.14
Total Return:
-3.85%