PM Professor Mean's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 46 trades in period
-5.90%
Year to Date Return
$9,985.53
Current Value
54%
Win Rate
$10,611.87
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
71.8 overbought
20d Trend
+12.7%
5d Trend
+2.2%
EMA20 Dist
+5.0%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
97%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
14
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
8.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
13.6/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 13.6
30-Day Momentum
21
+0.3%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 22.9
Conf: 0.93×
Steady (+8 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
6,982
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-02 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
87 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$10,611.87
Current Value
$9,985.53
Period P&L
$-626.31
Max Drawdown
-10.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.15
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
46
Winners / Losers
25 /
21
Best Trade
+2.00%
Worst Trade
-2.80%
Avg Trade Return
-0.13%
Avg Hold Time
4.9h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$934,310.05
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-626.31
Net P&L (after fees)
$-626.31
Gross Return
-5.90%
Net Return (after fees)
-5.90%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 PM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 87 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 46 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $10,611.87 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 11:45am ET | $160.33 | 66 | $10,581.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 1:25pm ET | $160.67 | 66 | $10,604.22 | $10,634.28 |
+$22.44 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $159.52 | 66 | $10,528.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 9:45am ET | $158.21 | 66 | $10,441.86 | $10,547.82 |
$-86.46 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 3:25pm ET | $155.85 | 67 | $10,441.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 3:35pm ET | $155.48 | 67 | $10,417.16 | $10,523.03 |
$-24.79 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 2:55pm ET | $166.03 | 63 | $10,459.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 3:50pm ET | $166.28 | 63 | $10,475.64 | $10,538.78 |
+$15.75 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
54m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 3:10pm ET | $173.14 | 60 | $10,388.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 10:20am ET | $172.06 | 60 | $10,323.60 | $10,474.28 |
$-64.50 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.2h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 1:20pm ET | $167.79 | 62 | $10,402.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 2:30pm ET | $167.96 | 62 | $10,413.52 | $10,484.82 |
+$10.54 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 9:50am ET | $167.24 | 62 | $10,368.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 10:20am ET | $168.43 | 62 | $10,442.35 | $10,558.60 |
+$73.78 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 1:10pm ET | $178.33 | 59 | $10,521.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 2:55pm ET | $178.22 | 59 | $10,514.98 | $10,552.40 |
$-6.19 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 3:10pm ET | $177.35 | 59 | $10,463.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 3:25pm ET | $178.14 | 59 | $10,510.26 | $10,599.01 |
+$46.61 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 9:50am ET | $178.59 | 59 | $10,536.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 11:50am ET | $178.06 | 59 | $10,505.54 | $10,568.04 |
$-30.98 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 1:30pm ET | $180.88 | 58 | $10,491.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 2:00pm ET | $179.84 | 58 | $10,430.72 | $10,507.72 |
$-60.32 (-0.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 1:50pm ET | $181.32 | 57 | $10,335.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 2:30pm ET | $182.35 | 57 | $10,394.23 | $10,566.71 |
+$58.99 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
42m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:05am ET | $180.51 | 58 | $10,469.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 12:20pm ET | $180.01 | 58 | $10,440.58 | $10,537.42 |
$-29.29 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 1:55pm ET | $186.84 | 56 | $10,463.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 3:40pm ET | $186.35 | 56 | $10,435.60 | $10,509.98 |
$-27.44 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 9:50am ET | $182.68 | 57 | $10,413.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 11:05am ET | $183.05 | 57 | $10,433.85 | $10,530.79 |
+$20.81 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 10:05am ET | $182.43 | 57 | $10,398.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 10:20am ET | $183.50 | 57 | $10,459.50 | $10,591.69 |
+$60.90 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $186.06 | 56 | $10,419.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $185.27 | 56 | $10,375.12 | $10,547.45 |
$-44.24 (-0.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $188.64 | 55 | $10,375.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 10:55am ET | $189.80 | 55 | $10,439.00 | $10,611.25 |
+$63.80 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 12:45pm ET | $188.28 | 56 | $10,543.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 3:50pm ET | $186.45 | 56 | $10,440.92 | $10,508.49 |
$-102.76 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.1h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $182.65 | 57 | $10,411.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 12:20pm ET | $177.53 | 57 | $10,119.21 | $10,216.65 |
$-291.84 (-2.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 2:10pm ET | $178.05 | 57 | $10,148.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 2:30pm ET | $178.70 | 57 | $10,185.90 | $10,253.70 |
+$37.05 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 3:00pm ET | $171.26 | 59 | $10,104.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 3:20pm ET | $171.67 | 59 | $10,128.53 | $10,277.89 |
+$24.19 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $171.37 | 59 | $10,110.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 11:40am ET | $167.15 | 59 | $9,861.85 | $10,028.82 |
$-249.07 (-2.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.2h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 12:25pm ET | $167.90 | 59 | $9,906.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 12:35pm ET | $168.48 | 59 | $9,940.03 | $10,062.75 |
+$33.93 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 3:20pm ET | $174.60 | 57 | $9,952.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $176.10 | 57 | $10,037.98 | $10,148.53 |
+$85.78 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $174.76 | 58 | $10,136.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 10:10am ET | $175.45 | 58 | $10,176.10 | $10,188.55 |
+$40.02 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 1:05pm ET | $166.26 | 61 | $10,141.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 3:00pm ET | $166.02 | 61 | $10,127.22 | $10,173.91 |
$-14.64 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 10:05am ET | $162.96 | 62 | $10,103.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 12:00pm ET | $162.62 | 62 | $10,082.44 | $10,152.83 |
$-21.08 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 12:05pm ET | $163.55 | 62 | $10,140.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 1:10pm ET | $163.90 | 62 | $10,161.80 | $10,174.22 |
+$21.39 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 3:40pm ET | $164.24 | 61 | $10,018.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 10:30am ET | $164.09 | 61 | $10,009.19 | $10,164.77 |
$-9.45 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.8h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 11:45am ET | $164.65 | 61 | $10,043.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $163.55 | 61 | $9,976.55 | $10,097.90 |
$-66.87 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
21.8h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 3:05pm ET | $164.69 | 61 | $10,046.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:50pm ET | $165.02 | 61 | $10,066.22 | $10,118.03 |
+$20.13 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $161.50 | 62 | $10,013.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 10:45am ET | $158.47 | 62 | $9,825.14 | $9,930.17 |
$-187.86 (-1.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 12:55pm ET | $158.38 | 62 | $9,819.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 1:20pm ET | $158.82 | 62 | $9,846.53 | $9,957.37 |
+$27.20 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 11:00am ET | $158.82 | 62 | $9,846.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 12:05pm ET | $159.09 | 62 | $9,863.57 | $9,974.10 |
+$16.73 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $160.76 | 62 | $9,967.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 12:50pm ET | $158.81 | 62 | $9,846.22 | $9,853.20 |
$-120.90 (-1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.3h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $160.24 | 61 | $9,774.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 12:00pm ET | $158.40 | 61 | $9,662.52 | $9,741.08 |
$-112.12 (-1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.5h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 3:40pm ET | $157.56 | 61 | $9,611.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 9:40am ET | $158.08 | 61 | $9,642.88 | $9,772.80 |
+$31.72 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $155.62 | 62 | $9,648.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:55am ET | $156.76 | 62 | $9,719.03 | $9,843.39 |
+$70.59 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 1:10pm ET | $157.82 | 62 | $9,784.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 2:40pm ET | $157.57 | 62 | $9,769.65 | $9,828.20 |
$-15.19 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 3:00pm ET | $154.80 | 63 | $9,752.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $157.90 | 63 | $9,947.70 | $10,023.50 |
+$195.30 (+2.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.5h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 3:50pm ET | $169.79 | 59 | $10,017.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $167.52 | 59 | $9,883.68 | $9,889.87 |
$-133.63 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 3:10pm ET | $165.67 | 59 | $9,774.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 3:50pm ET | $165.81 | 59 | $9,782.79 | $9,898.04 |
+$8.17 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 12:35pm ET | $163.79 | 60 | $9,827.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 12:50pm ET | $164.85 | 60 | $9,891.00 | $9,961.64 |
+$63.60 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 12:55pm ET | $166.32 | 59 | $9,812.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 1:30pm ET | $166.63 | 59 | $9,830.88 | $9,979.63 |
+$17.99 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 2:10pm ET | $168.69 | 59 | $9,952.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 3:15pm ET | $168.79 | 59 | $9,958.61 | $9,985.53 |
+$5.90 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,985.53
Net Profit/Loss:
$-14.47
Total Return:
-0.14%