RIOT Professor Mean's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 48 trades in period
+8.28%
Year to Date Return
$9,839.26
Current Value
69%
Win Rate
$9,086.84
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
28.4 oversold
20d Trend
-31.1%
5d Trend
-24.1%
EMA20 Dist
-22.9%
ATR%
11.0%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026
12
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
12.3/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 12.1
30-Day Momentum
65
+7.1%
30d Return
83%
Win Rate
12
Trades
2.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 70.0
Conf: 0.93×
Accelerating (+53 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,848
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$9,086.84
Current Value
$9,839.26
Period P&L
$752.38
Max Drawdown
-50.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.10
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
48
Winners / Losers
33 /
15
Best Trade
+3.68%
Worst Trade
-5.26%
Avg Trade Return
+0.18%
Avg Hold Time
4.6h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$886,400.67
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$752.38
Net P&L (after fees)
$752.38
Gross Return
+8.28%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.28%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RIOT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 48 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $9,086.84 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.65 | 620 | $9,081.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 9:40am ET | $14.87 | 620 | $9,219.40 | $9,225.22 |
+$138.32 (+1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 2:50pm ET | $15.15 | 609 | $9,223.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 3:45pm ET | $15.17 | 609 | $9,235.49 | $9,237.40 |
+$12.18 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
54m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 10:05am ET | $15.08 | 612 | $9,228.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 10:50am ET | $15.23 | 612 | $9,317.70 | $9,326.14 |
+$88.74 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 11:05am ET | $16.41 | 568 | $9,318.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 1:35pm ET | $16.32 | 568 | $9,269.76 | $9,277.86 |
$-48.28 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.5h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 3:45pm ET | $17.46 | 531 | $9,268.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.78 | 531 | $8,910.18 | $8,919.43 |
$-358.42 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 2:15pm ET | $18.63 | 478 | $8,902.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 2:35pm ET | $18.80 | 478 | $8,986.26 | $9,002.94 |
+$83.51 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 2:35pm ET | $18.14 | 496 | $8,997.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 3:45pm ET | $18.34 | 496 | $9,094.16 | $9,099.66 |
+$96.72 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 9:45am ET | $17.13 | 531 | $9,096.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 11:00am ET | $17.17 | 531 | $9,117.27 | $9,120.90 |
+$21.24 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 3:00pm ET | $17.66 | 516 | $9,112.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 11:20am ET | $16.73 | 516 | $8,633.04 | $8,641.38 |
$-479.52 (-5.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 1:50pm ET | $17.44 | 495 | $8,632.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 2:45pm ET | $17.68 | 495 | $8,753.68 | $8,762.26 |
+$120.88 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
54m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 3:10pm ET | $16.73 | 523 | $8,747.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 3:50pm ET | $16.99 | 523 | $8,883.16 | $8,898.24 |
+$135.98 (+1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
42m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.08 | 590 | $8,897.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:50am ET | $15.45 | 590 | $9,115.62 | $9,116.66 |
+$218.42 (+2.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 12:55pm ET | $15.32 | 595 | $9,115.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 2:15pm ET | $15.15 | 595 | $9,011.28 | $9,012.41 |
$-104.24 (-1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $13.59 | 663 | $9,010.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $14.09 | 663 | $9,341.67 | $9,343.91 |
+$331.50 (+3.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.01 | 666 | $9,330.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $14.36 | 666 | $9,567.09 | $9,580.34 |
+$236.43 (+2.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:15pm ET | $15.10 | 634 | $9,573.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 1:25pm ET | $14.90 | 634 | $9,449.77 | $9,456.71 |
$-123.63 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.76 | 640 | $9,447.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 11:00am ET | $14.51 | 640 | $9,283.20 | $9,292.23 |
$-164.48 (-1.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 2:55pm ET | $15.38 | 604 | $9,289.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 3:45pm ET | $15.52 | 604 | $9,374.08 | $9,376.79 |
+$84.56 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 12:15pm ET | $15.99 | 586 | $9,370.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 1:55pm ET | $15.81 | 586 | $9,261.73 | $9,268.44 |
$-108.35 (-1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $15.42 | 601 | $9,267.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 9:45am ET | $15.74 | 601 | $9,459.74 | $9,460.70 |
+$192.26 (+2.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 9:45am ET | $16.87 | 560 | $9,447.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 10:40am ET | $16.91 | 560 | $9,466.80 | $9,480.30 |
+$19.60 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 11:10am ET | $16.37 | 578 | $9,464.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 3:10pm ET | $15.93 | 578 | $9,207.54 | $9,223.49 |
$-256.81 (-2.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
4h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.92 | 579 | $9,217.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 10:15am ET | $16.18 | 579 | $9,368.22 | $9,374.03 |
+$150.54 (+1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 1:10pm ET | $16.26 | 576 | $9,365.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 2:10pm ET | $16.33 | 576 | $9,403.20 | $9,411.47 |
+$37.44 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.08 | 624 | $9,409.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 1:00pm ET | $14.31 | 624 | $8,926.32 | $8,927.87 |
$-483.60 (-5.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.5h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 12:10pm ET | $14.81 | 603 | $8,927.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 1:05pm ET | $14.94 | 603 | $9,008.82 | $9,009.27 |
+$81.40 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:40am ET | $14.31 | 629 | $9,004.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 11:30am ET | $14.17 | 629 | $8,912.93 | $8,918.07 |
$-91.20 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 1:40pm ET | $14.33 | 622 | $8,913.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 3:10pm ET | $14.21 | 622 | $8,838.62 | $8,843.43 |
$-74.64 (-0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.23 | 621 | $8,836.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $14.43 | 621 | $8,961.03 | $8,967.63 |
+$124.20 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 10:10am ET | $14.20 | 631 | $8,963.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 12:40pm ET | $14.03 | 631 | $8,856.08 | $8,860.36 |
$-107.27 (-1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.5h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:10am ET | $14.76 | 600 | $8,856.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 12:30pm ET | $14.77 | 600 | $8,862.00 | $8,866.36 |
+$6.00 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 12:30pm ET | $13.89 | 638 | $8,861.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 1:35pm ET | $13.94 | 638 | $8,893.72 | $8,898.26 |
+$31.90 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 3:50pm ET | $12.69 | 700 | $8,886.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $12.86 | 700 | $9,002.00 | $9,013.76 |
+$115.50 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 10:55am ET | $11.57 | 779 | $9,012.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 12:25pm ET | $11.75 | 779 | $9,153.25 | $9,154.21 |
+$140.45 (+1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 1:55pm ET | $12.63 | 725 | $9,153.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 3:20pm ET | $12.60 | 725 | $9,131.38 | $9,132.46 |
$-21.75 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:15pm ET | $13.40 | 681 | $9,124.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 2:15pm ET | $13.53 | 681 | $9,213.93 | $9,221.67 |
+$89.21 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 2:55pm ET | $13.85 | 665 | $9,213.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:15pm ET | $13.97 | 665 | $9,290.05 | $9,298.15 |
+$76.48 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 2:20pm ET | $16.73 | 555 | $9,282.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 3:15pm ET | $16.83 | 555 | $9,337.88 | $9,353.65 |
+$55.50 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.32 | 573 | $9,348.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:55am ET | $16.71 | 573 | $9,574.83 | $9,579.98 |
+$226.33 (+2.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:00pm ET | $18.28 | 523 | $9,563.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 3:05pm ET | $18.33 | 523 | $9,583.98 | $9,600.90 |
+$20.92 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:50am ET | $16.91 | 567 | $9,585.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 11:20am ET | $16.58 | 567 | $9,398.03 | $9,413.79 |
$-187.11 (-2.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:10pm ET | $17.78 | 529 | $9,405.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 1:50pm ET | $18.09 | 529 | $9,572.25 | $9,580.42 |
+$166.63 (+1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 3:55pm ET | $18.08 | 529 | $9,564.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 10:25am ET | $18.17 | 529 | $9,614.57 | $9,630.67 |
+$50.25 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.5h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 12:55pm ET | $18.31 | 525 | $9,612.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 1:55pm ET | $18.43 | 525 | $9,675.59 | $9,693.51 |
+$62.84 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $18.49 | 524 | $9,688.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $18.70 | 524 | $9,798.80 | $9,803.55 |
+$110.04 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $17.13 | 572 | $9,798.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 11:55am ET | $16.85 | 572 | $9,638.20 | $9,643.39 |
$-160.16 (-1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 2:35pm ET | $18.21 | 529 | $9,633.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 2:55pm ET | $18.48 | 529 | $9,773.28 | $9,783.58 |
+$140.19 (+1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 1:10pm ET | $19.43 | 503 | $9,773.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 2:05pm ET | $19.54 | 503 | $9,828.97 | $9,839.26 |
+$55.68 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,839.26
Net Profit/Loss:
$-160.74
Total Return:
-1.61%