RIVN Professor Mean's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 54 trades in period
+21.83%
Year to Date Return
$8,488.34
Current Value
70%
Win Rate
$6,967.27
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
11
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.1/10
Raw Quality
11.1/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 10.9
30-Day Momentum
29
+2.1%
30d Return
58%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 31.8
Conf: 0.93×
Accelerating (+19 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,868
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$6,967.27
Current Value
$8,488.34
Period P&L
$1,521.10
Max Drawdown
-32.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.29
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
54
Winners / Losers
38 /
16
Best Trade
+4.11%
Worst Trade
-4.35%
Avg Trade Return
+0.38%
Avg Hold Time
3.8h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$833,462.24
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,521.10
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,521.10
Gross Return
+21.83%
Net Return (after fees)
+21.83%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 54 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $6,967.27 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 1:30pm ET | $19.05 | 365 | $6,954.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 2:15pm ET | $19.19 | 365 | $7,002.53 | $7,015.17 |
+$47.92 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 9:45am ET | $19.31 | 363 | $7,007.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 10:35am ET | $19.54 | 363 | $7,093.02 | $7,100.47 |
+$85.30 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 1:50pm ET | $19.93 | 356 | $7,093.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 2:25pm ET | $20.08 | 356 | $7,146.70 | $7,153.87 |
+$53.40 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
36m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 2:40pm ET | $20.01 | 357 | $7,141.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $19.98 | 357 | $7,132.86 | $7,144.95 |
$-8.92 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 9:40am ET | $18.71 | 381 | $7,128.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:50am ET | $19.20 | 381 | $7,315.20 | $7,331.64 |
+$186.69 (+2.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 10:20am ET | $18.81 | 389 | $7,315.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:50am ET | $19.02 | 389 | $7,396.84 | $7,413.33 |
+$81.69 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 9:45am ET | $17.25 | 429 | $7,400.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 9:50am ET | $17.17 | 429 | $7,363.79 | $7,376.86 |
$-36.47 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 10:15am ET | $16.79 | 439 | $7,370.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 11:35am ET | $16.84 | 439 | $7,392.76 | $7,399.12 |
+$22.26 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 1:05pm ET | $16.10 | 459 | $7,387.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 2:20pm ET | $16.08 | 459 | $7,378.43 | $7,389.89 |
$-9.23 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 12:10pm ET | $16.70 | 442 | $7,379.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 1:35pm ET | $16.73 | 442 | $7,392.45 | $7,403.15 |
+$13.26 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 3:00pm ET | $15.83 | 467 | $7,392.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 3:50pm ET | $15.89 | 467 | $7,420.63 | $7,431.17 |
+$28.02 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.62 | 475 | $7,419.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $15.47 | 475 | $7,348.25 | $7,359.92 |
$-71.25 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 10:45am ET | $15.16 | 485 | $7,352.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 12:00pm ET | $15.21 | 485 | $7,374.43 | $7,381.75 |
+$21.83 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 2:30pm ET | $15.20 | 485 | $7,372.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 3:55pm ET | $15.17 | 485 | $7,357.45 | $7,367.20 |
$-14.55 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.48 | 508 | $7,355.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 10:15am ET | $14.57 | 508 | $7,404.10 | $7,415.46 |
+$48.26 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 11:40am ET | $14.30 | 518 | $7,407.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 1:50pm ET | $14.19 | 518 | $7,347.83 | $7,355.89 |
$-59.57 (-0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.2h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 2:30pm ET | $13.94 | 527 | $7,346.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $13.98 | 527 | $7,370.09 | $7,379.60 |
+$23.72 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.48 | 509 | $7,370.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:30am ET | $14.65 | 509 | $7,459.39 | $7,468.68 |
+$89.08 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 11:40am ET | $15.36 | 486 | $7,467.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 1:25pm ET | $15.17 | 486 | $7,372.62 | $7,373.91 |
$-94.77 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.37 | 424 | $7,364.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 12:05pm ET | $16.61 | 424 | $7,044.76 | $7,053.79 |
$-320.12 (-4.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.6h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 3:15pm ET | $16.13 | 437 | $7,048.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 3:40pm ET | $16.29 | 437 | $7,118.73 | $7,123.71 |
+$69.92 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 12:20pm ET | $15.04 | 473 | $7,113.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 12:50pm ET | $15.16 | 473 | $7,173.04 | $7,182.84 |
+$59.13 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 2:50pm ET | $14.76 | 486 | $7,173.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 3:30pm ET | $14.84 | 486 | $7,209.81 | $7,219.29 |
+$36.45 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 3:55pm ET | $15.10 | 478 | $7,215.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.31 | 478 | $7,318.18 | $7,322.06 |
+$102.77 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 12:55pm ET | $15.21 | 481 | $7,316.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 1:35pm ET | $15.35 | 481 | $7,385.75 | $7,391.80 |
+$69.74 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 2:40pm ET | $15.18 | 487 | $7,390.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 3:15pm ET | $15.27 | 487 | $7,438.92 | $7,440.50 |
+$48.70 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 3:15pm ET | $14.96 | 497 | $7,435.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 3:35pm ET | $15.11 | 497 | $7,512.15 | $7,517.53 |
+$77.03 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 3:55pm ET | $15.13 | 497 | $7,517.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.87 | 497 | $7,391.68 | $7,392.09 |
$-125.44 (-1.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.68 | 503 | $7,383.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $14.93 | 503 | $7,509.84 | $7,517.94 |
+$125.85 (+1.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 10:05am ET | $15.16 | 495 | $7,504.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 10:35am ET | $15.41 | 495 | $7,630.42 | $7,644.17 |
+$126.23 (+1.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 2:10pm ET | $16.74 | 456 | $7,633.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 2:30pm ET | $16.88 | 456 | $7,697.28 | $7,708.01 |
+$63.84 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 11:15am ET | $15.97 | 482 | $7,697.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 12:55pm ET | $16.02 | 482 | $7,721.64 | $7,732.11 |
+$24.10 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 1:45pm ET | $14.89 | 519 | $7,728.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 3:05pm ET | $14.90 | 519 | $7,735.69 | $7,739.79 |
+$7.68 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 3:25pm ET | $15.22 | 508 | $7,729.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $15.34 | 508 | $7,792.72 | $7,803.29 |
+$63.50 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 10:15am ET | $15.74 | 495 | $7,793.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 10:20am ET | $15.59 | 495 | $7,714.58 | $7,724.09 |
$-79.20 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 1:00pm ET | $15.59 | 495 | $7,714.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 2:25pm ET | $15.76 | 495 | $7,799.22 | $7,808.73 |
+$84.64 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 2:35pm ET | $14.97 | 521 | $7,796.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.35 | 521 | $7,997.35 | $8,009.32 |
+$200.59 (+2.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.56 | 514 | $7,997.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 10:10am ET | $15.88 | 514 | $8,159.75 | $8,171.23 |
+$161.91 (+2.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 10:55am ET | $15.88 | 514 | $8,159.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 12:50pm ET | $15.71 | 514 | $8,074.94 | $8,086.42 |
$-84.81 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $15.07 | 536 | $8,077.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 10:20am ET | $15.10 | 536 | $8,096.28 | $8,105.18 |
+$18.76 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 10:45am ET | $14.55 | 557 | $8,104.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 11:05am ET | $14.72 | 557 | $8,196.26 | $8,197.08 |
+$91.90 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $14.75 | 555 | $8,186.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:15am ET | $14.95 | 555 | $8,300.02 | $8,310.85 |
+$113.77 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 3:40pm ET | $15.28 | 543 | $8,299.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 3:50pm ET | $15.35 | 543 | $8,337.76 | $8,348.86 |
+$38.01 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 2:40pm ET | $15.11 | 552 | $8,343.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 3:55pm ET | $15.15 | 552 | $8,365.56 | $8,370.94 |
+$22.08 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 2:05pm ET | $15.34 | 545 | $8,357.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 2:15pm ET | $15.43 | 545 | $8,406.63 | $8,419.99 |
+$49.05 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 3:45pm ET | $15.82 | 532 | $8,416.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.47 | 532 | $8,762.04 | $8,765.74 |
+$345.75 (+4.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.02 | 515 | $8,765.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 10:50am ET | $16.96 | 515 | $8,734.45 | $8,734.89 |
$-30.85 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 1:15pm ET | $17.05 | 512 | $8,729.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 2:35pm ET | $17.08 | 512 | $8,745.93 | $8,751.22 |
+$16.33 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.49 | 500 | $8,745.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 12:25pm ET | $17.19 | 500 | $8,595.00 | $8,601.22 |
$-150.00 (-1.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.9h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 12:50pm ET | $16.39 | 524 | $8,585.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 2:10pm ET | $16.36 | 524 | $8,575.26 | $8,590.74 |
$-10.48 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.45 | 522 | $8,586.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 12:10pm ET | $16.10 | 522 | $8,404.20 | $8,408.04 |
$-182.70 (-2.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7h held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 9:50am ET | $15.96 | 526 | $8,394.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 10:05am ET | $16.11 | 526 | $8,473.81 | $8,486.89 |
+$78.85 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 2:05pm ET | $15.13 | 560 | $8,472.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 2:45pm ET | $15.21 | 560 | $8,517.60 | $8,531.69 |
+$44.80 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 54 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 12:25pm ET | $14.76 | 578 | $8,528.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 2:15pm ET | $14.68 | 578 | $8,485.04 | $8,488.34 |
$-43.35 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,488.34
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,511.66
Total Return:
-15.12%