USO Professor Mean's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 48 trades in period
+17.43%
Year to Date Return
$13,228.74
Current Value
60%
Win Rate
$11,264.76
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
55.8 neutral
20d Trend
+3.7%
5d Trend
-4.0%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
71%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
9/1
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026
39
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
10.0/35
Total Return
12.7/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
3.2/15
Consistency
6.2/10
Raw Quality
38.9/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 38.6
30-Day Momentum
60
+7.0%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
12
Trades
2.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 64.6
Conf: 0.93×
Accelerating (+21 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,799
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$11,264.76
Current Value
$13,228.74
Period P&L
$1,963.98
Max Drawdown
-11.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.18
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
48
Winners / Losers
29 /
19
Best Trade
+9.04%
Worst Trade
-6.89%
Avg Trade Return
+0.35%
Avg Hold Time
5.3h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,161,664.89
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,963.98
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,963.98
Gross Return
+17.43%
Net Return (after fees)
+17.43%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 USO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 48 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $11,264.76 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 10:00am ET | $69.73 | 161 | $11,226.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 10:40am ET | $70.32 | 161 | $11,321.52 | $11,359.74 |
+$94.99 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
42m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 11:55am ET | $67.69 | 167 | $11,303.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 1:55pm ET | $67.49 | 167 | $11,270.00 | $11,325.87 |
$-33.87 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 2:25pm ET | $71.15 | 159 | $11,312.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 10:00am ET | $70.89 | 159 | $11,271.51 | $11,284.53 |
$-41.34 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 12:00pm ET | $73.49 | 153 | $11,243.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 1:00pm ET | $73.62 | 153 | $11,263.86 | $11,304.42 |
+$19.89 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 3:00pm ET | $73.22 | 154 | $11,275.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 3:05pm ET | $72.50 | 154 | $11,165.00 | $11,193.54 |
$-110.88 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 3:25pm ET | $71.08 | 157 | $11,158.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $72.21 | 157 | $11,336.97 | $11,371.68 |
+$178.13 (+1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.1h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 1:45pm ET | $72.74 | 156 | $11,347.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 2:25pm ET | $72.93 | 156 | $11,377.08 | $11,401.32 |
+$29.64 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
42m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $72.06 | 158 | $11,384.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $71.95 | 158 | $11,368.10 | $11,384.73 |
$-16.59 (-0.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $73.50 | 154 | $11,318.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 11:30am ET | $73.40 | 154 | $11,303.60 | $11,370.10 |
$-14.63 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 11:50am ET | $75.85 | 149 | $11,301.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 12:40pm ET | $76.04 | 149 | $11,329.96 | $11,398.41 |
+$28.31 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 1:30pm ET | $78.53 | 145 | $11,386.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 2:05pm ET | $79.22 | 145 | $11,486.18 | $11,497.73 |
+$99.33 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
36m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $75.31 | 152 | $11,447.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 11:45am ET | $75.11 | 152 | $11,416.72 | $11,467.33 |
$-30.40 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 2:00pm ET | $76.04 | 150 | $11,406.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 2:15pm ET | $76.41 | 150 | $11,461.50 | $11,522.83 |
+$55.50 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 2:35pm ET | $78.43 | 146 | $11,450.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 2:45pm ET | $77.79 | 146 | $11,356.61 | $11,428.66 |
$-94.17 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 1:30pm ET | $77.65 | 147 | $11,415.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $76.99 | 147 | $11,316.80 | $11,330.17 |
$-98.49 (-0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 11:00am ET | $77.63 | 145 | $11,256.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:20pm ET | $77.72 | 145 | $11,269.40 | $11,343.22 |
+$13.05 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 12:40pm ET | $78.69 | 144 | $11,331.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 1:20pm ET | $78.95 | 144 | $11,368.80 | $11,380.66 |
+$37.44 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:20am ET | $75.75 | 150 | $11,362.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 11:20am ET | $75.71 | 150 | $11,356.50 | $11,374.66 |
$-6.00 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 1:20pm ET | $80.61 | 141 | $11,366.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 1:50pm ET | $80.97 | 141 | $11,416.77 | $11,424.72 |
+$50.06 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 11:05am ET | $80.97 | 141 | $11,416.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 11:20am ET | $81.69 | 141 | $11,518.29 | $11,526.24 |
+$101.52 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 12:50pm ET | $80.05 | 143 | $11,447.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 1:50pm ET | $80.38 | 143 | $11,494.34 | $11,573.43 |
+$47.19 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $78.19 | 148 | $11,572.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 10:15am ET | $79.70 | 148 | $11,795.60 | $11,796.91 |
+$223.48 (+1.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 11:20am ET | $81.16 | 145 | $11,768.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 12:10pm ET | $81.30 | 145 | $11,788.50 | $11,817.21 |
+$20.30 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 11:45am ET | $92.10 | 128 | $11,788.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 2:35pm ET | $91.00 | 128 | $11,647.36 | $11,675.77 |
$-141.44 (-1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 3:15pm ET | $96.67 | 120 | $11,600.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $105.40 | 120 | $12,648.60 | $12,723.97 |
+$1,048.20 (+9.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 11:20am ET | $115.61 | 110 | $12,717.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 1:15pm ET | $114.64 | 110 | $12,610.40 | $12,617.27 |
$-106.70 (-0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 1:20pm ET | $95.54 | 132 | $12,611.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 2:10pm ET | $99.10 | 132 | $13,081.20 | $13,087.07 |
+$469.80 (+3.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $114.94 | 113 | $12,988.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 10:40am ET | $116.48 | 113 | $13,162.24 | $13,261.09 |
+$174.02 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 1:25pm ET | $116.14 | 114 | $13,239.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 3:15pm ET | $115.75 | 114 | $13,196.07 | $13,217.19 |
$-43.90 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 11:55am ET | $121.00 | 109 | $13,189.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 1:10pm ET | $121.02 | 109 | $13,191.18 | $13,219.37 |
+$2.18 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 1:30pm ET | $118.70 | 111 | $13,175.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 2:45pm ET | $119.60 | 111 | $13,275.61 | $13,319.28 |
+$99.91 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 3:55pm ET | $121.53 | 109 | $13,246.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $113.15 | 109 | $12,333.35 | $12,406.41 |
$-912.88 (-6.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 2:00pm ET | $114.28 | 108 | $12,342.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 3:55pm ET | $114.35 | 108 | $12,349.26 | $12,413.65 |
+$7.24 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 2:20pm ET | $127.62 | 97 | $12,379.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 2:40pm ET | $128.65 | 97 | $12,479.05 | $12,513.56 |
+$99.91 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $124.78 | 100 | $12,478.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 11:00am ET | $123.71 | 100 | $12,371.00 | $12,406.56 |
$-107.00 (-0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 3:50pm ET | $138.74 | 89 | $12,347.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $141.27 | 89 | $12,573.03 | $12,631.72 |
+$225.16 (+1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.7h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $119.21 | 105 | $12,516.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 10:55am ET | $122.63 | 105 | $12,876.15 | $12,991.24 |
+$359.52 (+2.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 11:35am ET | $126.13 | 102 | $12,865.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 2:05pm ET | $125.07 | 102 | $12,757.40 | $12,883.38 |
$-107.86 (-0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.5h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 2:15pm ET | $125.99 | 102 | $12,850.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 3:50pm ET | $124.60 | 102 | $12,708.69 | $12,741.09 |
$-142.29 (-1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 10:00am ET | $125.74 | 101 | $12,699.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 11:05am ET | $125.14 | 101 | $12,639.13 | $12,680.36 |
$-60.73 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 2:15pm ET | $122.79 | 103 | $12,647.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $124.11 | 103 | $12,783.33 | $12,815.81 |
+$135.45 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.3h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $114.85 | 111 | $12,748.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $113.56 | 111 | $12,605.16 | $12,672.20 |
$-143.61 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 2:55pm ET | $122.99 | 103 | $12,667.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 3:40pm ET | $125.95 | 103 | $12,972.85 | $12,977.08 |
+$304.88 (+2.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $132.92 | 97 | $12,893.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 11:00am ET | $133.08 | 97 | $12,908.73 | $12,992.57 |
+$15.49 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 12:55pm ET | $138.75 | 93 | $12,903.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 1:10pm ET | $139.38 | 93 | $12,962.34 | $13,051.16 |
+$58.59 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $146.58 | 89 | $13,045.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 10:50am ET | $148.15 | 89 | $13,185.35 | $13,191.10 |
+$139.94 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 2:05pm ET | $141.56 | 93 | $13,165.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 2:15pm ET | $142.40 | 93 | $13,243.20 | $13,269.22 |
+$78.12 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $143.92 | 92 | $13,240.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 11:20am ET | $143.48 | 92 | $13,200.16 | $13,228.74 |
$-40.48 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$13,228.74
Net Profit/Loss:
+$3,228.74
Total Return:
+32.29%