VRTX Professor Mean's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 49 trades in period
-3.66%
Year to Date Return
$11,213.85
Current Value
49%
Win Rate
$11,639.56
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
49.5 neutral
20d Trend
-1.8%
5d Trend
-1.9%
EMA20 Dist
-0.6%
ATR%
2.9%
Range Pos
71%
Bounce Ratio
1.0×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026
33
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
7.8/35
Total Return
9.3/25
Win Rate
7.6/15
Profit Factor
1.4/15
Consistency
6.9/10
Raw Quality
32.9/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 32.5
30-Day Momentum
17
+0.1%
30d Return
58%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 18.4
Conf: 0.93×
Declining (-16 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
6,842
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-02 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
85 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$11,639.56
Current Value
$11,213.85
Period P&L
$-425.66
Max Drawdown
-5.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.11
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
49
Winners / Losers
24 /
25
Best Trade
+1.75%
Worst Trade
-2.40%
Avg Trade Return
-0.08%
Avg Hold Time
5.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,106,297.11
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-425.66
Net P&L (after fees)
$-425.66
Gross Return
-3.66%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.66%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 VRTX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 85 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 49 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $11,639.56 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 31, 2025 2:40pm ET | $455.05 | 25 | $11,376.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $450.34 | 25 | $11,258.50 | $11,563.99 |
$-117.75 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $448.78 | 25 | $11,219.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 10:55am ET | $447.57 | 25 | $11,189.25 | $11,533.74 |
$-30.25 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 1:55pm ET | $464.75 | 24 | $11,154.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 2:10pm ET | $466.96 | 24 | $11,206.92 | $11,586.66 |
+$52.92 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $479.37 | 24 | $11,504.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 9:40am ET | $484.81 | 24 | $11,635.44 | $11,717.22 |
+$130.56 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 2:00pm ET | $469.86 | 24 | $11,276.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 2:05pm ET | $467.49 | 24 | $11,219.76 | $11,660.34 |
$-56.88 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $457.89 | 25 | $11,447.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:05am ET | $460.61 | 25 | $11,515.25 | $11,728.34 |
+$68.00 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 10:45am ET | $449.27 | 26 | $11,681.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 12:45pm ET | $448.97 | 26 | $11,673.22 | $11,720.54 |
$-7.80 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 12:55pm ET | $442.08 | 26 | $11,494.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 3:55pm ET | $438.92 | 26 | $11,411.92 | $11,638.38 |
$-82.16 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $431.19 | 26 | $11,210.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 10:25am ET | $438.73 | 26 | $11,406.98 | $11,834.49 |
+$196.11 (+1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
54m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 2:50pm ET | $469.24 | 25 | $11,730.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $468.34 | 25 | $11,708.50 | $11,812.06 |
$-22.44 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.8h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 12:20pm ET | $481.20 | 24 | $11,548.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 12:35pm ET | $477.48 | 24 | $11,459.40 | $11,722.66 |
$-89.40 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 2:10pm ET | $476.73 | 24 | $11,441.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 3:25pm ET | $476.33 | 24 | $11,431.92 | $11,713.18 |
$-9.48 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 9:45am ET | $470.46 | 24 | $11,291.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 11:05am ET | $470.84 | 24 | $11,300.16 | $11,722.24 |
+$9.06 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 2:05pm ET | $471.83 | 24 | $11,323.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 2:40pm ET | $472.57 | 24 | $11,341.67 | $11,739.99 |
+$17.75 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
36m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 3:45pm ET | $464.70 | 25 | $11,617.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 3:55pm ET | $465.84 | 25 | $11,646.00 | $11,768.49 |
+$28.50 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 12:50pm ET | $464.60 | 25 | $11,614.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 1:40pm ET | $465.49 | 25 | $11,637.25 | $11,790.86 |
+$22.37 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:45am ET | $473.19 | 24 | $11,356.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 11:15am ET | $472.38 | 24 | $11,337.12 | $11,771.33 |
$-19.53 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 11:45am ET | $468.39 | 25 | $11,709.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 1:30pm ET | $467.71 | 25 | $11,692.75 | $11,754.33 |
$-17.00 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:05am ET | $483.96 | 24 | $11,615.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 1:25pm ET | $476.96 | 24 | $11,447.04 | $11,586.33 |
$-168.00 (-1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $469.00 | 24 | $11,256.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 10:25am ET | $468.49 | 24 | $11,243.76 | $11,574.09 |
$-12.24 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 3:25pm ET | $483.35 | 23 | $11,116.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $485.13 | 23 | $11,157.99 | $11,615.15 |
+$41.06 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 12:40pm ET | $482.36 | 24 | $11,576.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 1:15pm ET | $484.36 | 24 | $11,624.52 | $11,663.03 |
+$47.88 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 3:45pm ET | $478.27 | 24 | $11,478.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $479.86 | 24 | $11,516.76 | $11,701.31 |
+$38.28 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 9:45am ET | $492.96 | 23 | $11,338.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 11:55am ET | $486.93 | 23 | $11,199.39 | $11,562.62 |
$-138.69 (-1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.2h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 3:45pm ET | $473.91 | 24 | $11,373.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $475.30 | 24 | $11,407.20 | $11,595.92 |
+$33.30 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $475.93 | 24 | $11,422.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $473.22 | 24 | $11,357.28 | $11,530.76 |
$-65.16 (-0.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 11:35am ET | $453.24 | 25 | $11,331.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 1:00pm ET | $452.58 | 25 | $11,314.50 | $11,514.26 |
$-16.50 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 1:00pm ET | $453.76 | 25 | $11,344.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 2:15pm ET | $454.18 | 25 | $11,354.50 | $11,524.76 |
+$10.50 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 10:00am ET | $494.01 | 23 | $11,362.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 12:10pm ET | $493.19 | 23 | $11,343.37 | $11,505.90 |
$-18.86 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.2h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 12:10pm ET | $476.80 | 24 | $11,443.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 12:35pm ET | $480.32 | 24 | $11,527.68 | $11,590.50 |
+$84.60 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 3:35pm ET | $471.17 | 24 | $11,308.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $475.14 | 24 | $11,403.36 | $11,685.78 |
+$95.28 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 9:45am ET | $457.89 | 25 | $11,447.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 11:15am ET | $456.29 | 25 | $11,407.25 | $11,645.78 |
$-40.00 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 2:25pm ET | $454.99 | 25 | $11,374.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 3:20pm ET | $455.54 | 25 | $11,388.38 | $11,659.41 |
+$13.63 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $448.00 | 26 | $11,648.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $446.00 | 26 | $11,596.00 | $11,607.41 |
$-52.00 (-0.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 3:30pm ET | $456.48 | 25 | $11,412.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $450.89 | 25 | $11,272.25 | $11,467.66 |
$-139.75 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $450.95 | 25 | $11,273.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 1:35pm ET | $440.11 | 25 | $11,002.75 | $11,196.66 |
$-271.00 (-2.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
4.1h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 12:15pm ET | $450.03 | 24 | $10,800.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 1:25pm ET | $450.12 | 24 | $10,802.88 | $11,198.82 |
+$2.16 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 3:25pm ET | $434.54 | 25 | $10,863.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 12:00pm ET | $427.45 | 25 | $10,686.25 | $11,021.70 |
$-177.12 (-1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20.6h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 2:45pm ET | $438.94 | 25 | $10,973.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 3:30pm ET | $439.54 | 25 | $10,988.38 | $11,036.58 |
+$14.88 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 1:40pm ET | $435.89 | 25 | $10,897.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 3:05pm ET | $435.77 | 25 | $10,894.25 | $11,033.58 |
$-3.00 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $437.00 | 25 | $10,925.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $440.55 | 25 | $11,013.75 | $11,122.33 |
+$88.75 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 1:00pm ET | $439.17 | 25 | $10,979.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 3:50pm ET | $434.55 | 25 | $10,863.75 | $11,006.71 |
$-115.63 (-1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $439.15 | 25 | $10,978.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 10:20am ET | $440.52 | 25 | $11,012.88 | $11,040.84 |
+$34.13 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $436.09 | 25 | $10,902.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 9:50am ET | $438.93 | 25 | $10,973.22 | $11,111.81 |
+$70.97 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 1:20pm ET | $437.52 | 25 | $10,938.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 3:50pm ET | $435.48 | 25 | $10,887.00 | $11,060.69 |
$-51.12 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.5h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $427.01 | 25 | $10,675.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $431.93 | 25 | $10,798.25 | $11,183.69 |
+$123.00 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 12:55pm ET | $428.36 | 26 | $11,137.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 1:55pm ET | $429.27 | 26 | $11,161.02 | $11,207.35 |
+$23.66 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 1:55pm ET | $429.00 | 26 | $11,154.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 3:50pm ET | $428.94 | 26 | $11,152.44 | $11,205.79 |
$-1.56 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 12:30pm ET | $424.48 | 26 | $11,036.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 1:40pm ET | $424.79 | 26 | $11,044.54 | $11,213.85 |
+$8.06 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,213.85
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,213.85
Total Return:
+12.14%