AVAXUSD Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last Month: 2026-01-14 to present • 59 trades in period
Data Transparency (Last Month)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Month)
Trade Statistics (Last Month)
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
💸 Capital Refund History
When capital drops below $100, the simulation automatically refunds to $10,000 and continues. This ensures continuous data collection even for strategies that experience significant losses.
| # | Date | Capital Before | Trades Before | Era Fees Paid | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nov 1, 2024 | $98.92 | 712 | $9,817.92 | CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED |
| 2 | Oct 10, 2025 | $97.56 | 1,650 | $11,505.92 | CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED |
⚠️ Note: This simulation has been refunded 2 times. Total capital invested: $30,000. The return percentage accounts for all refunds.
📚 Strategy Crash History — Learning from Failures
Each "era" below represents a period where the strategy ran until it crashed (capital < $100). Study these to understand how this strategy can fail and what market conditions caused the losses.
📖 Learning Tip: Look for patterns in the crash history. Did the strategy fail during high volatility? Extended trends? Specific market conditions? Understanding how strategies die helps you know when NOT to use them in real trading.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 AVAXUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
Trade History (Last Month - 59 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $2,326.36 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 6:25pm ET | $14.72 | 158 | $2,323.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 10:15pm ET | $14.27 | 158 | $2,252.22 | $2,240.79 |
$-82.46 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 1:30am ET | $14.24 | 157 | $2,240.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 1:30pm ET | $13.80 | 157 | $2,171.55 | $2,160.52 |
$-80.27 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 1:55pm ET | $13.74 | 157 | $2,160.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 11:00am ET | $13.30 | 157 | $2,091.33 | $2,080.70 |
$-79.82 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.1h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 2:05pm ET | $13.31 | 156 | $2,080.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $13.58 | 156 | $2,122.91 | $2,112.40 |
+$31.70 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 5:35pm ET | $13.59 | 155 | $2,112.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $13.88 | 155 | $2,157.48 | $2,146.80 |
+$34.40 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
16h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 17, 2026 2:50pm ET | $13.80 | 156 | $2,146.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 18, 2026 6:25pm ET | $13.35 | 156 | $2,076.80 | $2,066.24 |
$-80.56 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 18, 2026 6:30pm ET | $13.32 | 155 | $2,066.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 18, 2026 7:00pm ET | $12.66 | 155 | $1,963.86 | $1,953.78 |
$-112.46 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 18, 2026 7:05pm ET | $12.63 | 155 | $1,953.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 11:40am ET | $12.19 | 155 | $1,885.72 | $1,876.12 |
$-77.66 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 12:25pm ET | $12.17 | 154 | $1,876.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 2:30pm ET | $12.42 | 154 | $1,914.66 | $1,905.18 |
+$29.06 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 3:10pm ET | $12.51 | 152 | $1,905.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 10:20am ET | $12.06 | 152 | $1,836.65 | $1,827.29 |
$-77.89 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.2h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 10:25am ET | $12.05 | 152 | $1,827.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 11:10pm ET | $12.32 | 152 | $1,868.24 | $1,859.00 |
+$31.70 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12.8h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 12:50am ET | $12.26 | 152 | $1,859.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 24, 2026 10:30pm ET | $11.89 | 152 | $1,802.90 | $1,793.74 |
$-65.26 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 25, 2026 1:10am ET | $11.91 | 151 | $1,793.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 25, 2026 1:25pm ET | $11.54 | 151 | $1,738.02 | $1,729.19 |
$-64.55 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.3h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 25, 2026 2:10pm ET | $11.49 | 150 | $1,729.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 3:25am ET | $11.72 | 150 | $1,763.80 | $1,755.07 |
+$25.88 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 3:45am ET | $11.69 | 150 | $1,755.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 3:15pm ET | $11.93 | 150 | $1,791.10 | $1,782.23 |
+$27.17 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.5d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 1:20am ET | $12.09 | 147 | $1,782.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 11:10pm ET | $11.69 | 147 | $1,723.27 | $1,714.51 |
$-67.73 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 11:15pm ET | $11.68 | 147 | $1,714.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:50am ET | $11.27 | 147 | $1,654.32 | $1,645.90 |
$-68.61 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.6h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:55am ET | $11.16 | 147 | $1,645.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 1:50pm ET | $10.82 | 147 | $1,595.76 | $1,587.65 |
$-58.25 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 1:55pm ET | $10.81 | 147 | $1,587.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 4:00pm ET | $11.04 | 147 | $1,621.43 | $1,613.41 |
+$25.76 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:25pm ET | $10.79 | 150 | $1,613.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 6:50am ET | $11.03 | 150 | $1,649.30 | $1,641.14 |
+$27.73 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9.4h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 7:05am ET | $10.94 | 150 | $1,641.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 31, 2026 2:35am ET | $10.57 | 150 | $1,585.63 | $1,577.57 |
$-63.57 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.5h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 31, 2026 3:20am ET | $10.56 | 149 | $1,577.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 31, 2026 9:25am ET | $10.08 | 149 | $1,505.86 | $1,498.15 |
$-79.42 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 31, 2026 11:55am ET | $10.06 | 149 | $1,498.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 31, 2026 12:30pm ET | $9.70 | 149 | $1,444.54 | $1,437.18 |
$-60.97 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
36m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 31, 2026 1:40pm ET | $9.58 | 150 | $1,437.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 31, 2026 2:00pm ET | $9.80 | 150 | $1,470.19 | $1,462.92 |
+$25.74 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 31, 2026 3:00pm ET | $9.82 | 149 | $1,462.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 31, 2026 6:15pm ET | $10.04 | 149 | $1,495.69 | $1,488.30 |
+$25.38 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 31, 2026 8:40pm ET | $10.12 | 147 | $1,488.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 1, 2026 10:25am ET | $9.79 | 147 | $1,439.76 | $1,432.44 |
$-55.85 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.8h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 1, 2026 1:40pm ET | $9.97 | 144 | $1,432.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 1, 2026 10:20pm ET | $9.66 | 144 | $1,387.90 | $1,380.85 |
$-51.59 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.7h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 1, 2026 10:25pm ET | $9.63 | 143 | $1,380.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 1, 2026 10:45pm ET | $9.84 | 143 | $1,410.91 | $1,403.93 |
+$23.07 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 1, 2026 11:10pm ET | $9.72 | 144 | $1,403.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 1, 2026 11:25pm ET | $9.97 | 144 | $1,440.04 | $1,432.93 |
+$29.00 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 1, 2026 11:40pm ET | $9.90 | 145 | $1,432.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 1:35am ET | $9.55 | 145 | $1,382.27 | $1,375.23 |
$-57.70 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 4:00am ET | $9.92 | 139 | $1,375.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.14 | 139 | $1,405.73 | $1,398.78 |
+$23.55 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.5h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 2:35pm ET | $10.13 | 138 | $1,398.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 12:40pm ET | $9.77 | 138 | $1,349.07 | $1,342.20 |
$-56.58 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.1h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 1:50pm ET | $9.54 | 141 | $1,342.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 2:10pm ET | $9.85 | 141 | $1,385.81 | $1,378.99 |
+$36.79 (+3.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 2:45pm ET | $9.91 | 139 | $1,378.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 3:30pm ET | $10.19 | 139 | $1,417.95 | $1,410.96 |
+$31.97 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
48m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 4:35pm ET | $10.11 | 140 | $1,410.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.78 | 140 | $1,364.91 | $1,357.97 |
$-52.99 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
16.9h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 10:35am ET | $9.68 | 140 | $1,357.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 2:50pm ET | $9.88 | 140 | $1,386.02 | $1,379.16 |
+$21.20 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.3h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 3:30pm ET | $9.84 | 140 | $1,379.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 11:30pm ET | $9.54 | 140 | $1,337.12 | $1,330.33 |
$-48.84 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 12:25am ET | $9.49 | 140 | $1,330.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 6:25am ET | $9.18 | 140 | $1,286.87 | $1,280.33 |
$-50.00 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:15am ET | $9.15 | 140 | $1,280.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.34 | 140 | $1,306.91 | $1,300.44 |
+$20.12 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:50am ET | $9.27 | 140 | $1,300.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:05am ET | $8.98 | 140 | $1,259.76 | $1,253.36 |
$-47.08 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET | $8.88 | 141 | $1,253.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 3:15pm ET | $8.52 | 141 | $1,202.55 | $1,196.41 |
$-56.95 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 3:20pm ET | $8.44 | 142 | $1,196.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:05pm ET | $8.10 | 142 | $1,148.67 | $1,142.81 |
$-53.60 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET | $7.79 | 147 | $1,142.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:15pm ET | $8.07 | 147 | $1,184.11 | $1,178.29 |
+$35.48 (+3.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:15pm ET | $8.33 | 141 | $1,178.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 12:35am ET | $8.50 | 141 | $1,202.34 | $1,196.38 |
+$18.10 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.3h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 1:15am ET | $8.54 | 140 | $1,196.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 8:00am ET | $8.74 | 140 | $1,224.40 | $1,218.35 |
+$21.97 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.8h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 9:05am ET | $8.75 | 139 | $1,218.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $8.93 | 139 | $1,243.41 | $1,237.26 |
+$18.91 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 10:10am ET | $8.89 | 139 | $1,237.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 11:00am ET | $9.07 | 139 | $1,262.31 | $1,256.06 |
+$18.80 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
48m held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 2:15pm ET | $9.17 | 137 | $1,256.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 6:00pm ET | $9.36 | 137 | $1,282.09 | $1,275.74 |
+$19.68 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 6:15pm ET | $9.24 | 138 | $1,275.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 5:30am ET | $8.94 | 138 | $1,234.32 | $1,228.05 |
$-47.70 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11.3h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 5:35am ET | $8.93 | 138 | $1,228.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 7:15am ET | $9.23 | 138 | $1,269.30 | $1,263.06 |
+$35.01 (+3.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.7h held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 8:10am ET | $9.10 | 139 | $1,263.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 12:05pm ET | $9.29 | 139 | $1,289.23 | $1,282.85 |
+$19.79 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9h held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 2:00pm ET | $9.22 | 139 | $1,282.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:25am ET | $8.94 | 139 | $1,243.66 | $1,237.34 |
$-45.51 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6d held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 3:30am ET | $8.87 | 139 | $1,237.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 11:40am ET | $9.06 | 139 | $1,263.27 | $1,257.02 |
+$19.68 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.2h held |
|
| 54 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 1:15pm ET | $9.11 | 138 | $1,257.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 1:40am ET | $8.83 | 138 | $1,218.00 | $1,211.81 |
$-45.21 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.4h held |
|
| 55 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:50am ET | $8.75 | 138 | $1,211.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET | $8.83 | 138 | $1,223.01 | $1,216.92 |
+$5.11 (+0.9%) |
📅 Sim Ended
10.7h held |
|
| 56 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:10pm ET | $8.78 | 139 | $1,216.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 5:00am ET | $8.51 | 139 | $1,179.74 | $1,179.74 |
$-43.17 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15.8h held |
|
| 57 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 7:45am ET | $8.58 | 138 | $1,179.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 9:05am ET | $8.78 | 138 | $1,206.80 | $1,206.80 |
+$21.09 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 58 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 10:05am ET | $8.44 | 143 | $1,206.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 11:10am ET | $8.64 | 143 | $1,234.39 | $1,234.39 |
+$21.50 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held |
|
| 59 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 11:45am ET | $8.50 | 145 | $1,234.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 1:20pm ET | $8.69 | 145 | $1,262.50 | $1,262.50 |
+$21.86 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.6h held |
+ 2 refunds ($20,000)