Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Signals generated 2026-06-22 03:38:20

Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
79.9 overbought
20d Trend
+11.9%
5d Trend
+9.6%
EMA20 Dist
+7.7%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
96%
Bounce Ratio
5.6×
Green/Red 10d
7/3

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

11
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.3/10
Raw Quality 11.3/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 11.1

30-Day Momentum

2
-5.8%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9 Conf: 0.70×
Cooling (-9 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,482
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
19 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$9,183.45
Current Value
$8,646.66
Period P&L
$-536.75
Max Drawdown
-29.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.40

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
2 / 3
Best Trade
+2.43%
Worst Trade
-3.93%
Avg Trade Return
-1.16%
Avg Hold Time
3.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$88,560.37
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-536.75
Net P&L (after fees)
$-536.75
Gross Return
-5.84%
Net Return (after fees)
-5.84%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MRK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 19 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $9,183.45 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 10:00am ET $120.99 75 $9,074.25
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET $116.52 75 $8,739.00 $8,848.16 $-335.25
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 1:00pm ET $115.68 76 $8,791.68
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET $118.45 76 $9,002.20 $9,058.68 +$210.52
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 11:45am ET $122.76 73 $8,961.48
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 1:30pm ET $119.05 73 $8,690.65 $8,787.85 $-270.83
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 3:40pm ET $119.55 73 $8,727.15
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 1:40pm ET $122.46 73 $8,939.22 $8,999.91 +$212.06
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 1:45pm ET $119.92 75 $8,994.00
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:35am ET $115.21 75 $8,640.75 $8,646.66 $-353.25
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,646.66
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,353.34
Total Return: -13.53%
Back to Rebel Contraire