Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:19:29

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
39 neutral
20d Trend
-6.5%
5d Trend
-4.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.4%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
56%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

48
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
16.0/35
Total Return
16.0/25
Win Rate
7.6/15
Profit Factor
2.9/15
Consistency
5.7/10
Raw Quality 48.1/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 47.6

30-Day Momentum

59
+11.6%
30d Return
83%
Win Rate
6
Trades
10.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 79.7 Conf: 0.74×
Accelerating (+12 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,482
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
19 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$16,549.82
Current Value
$18,232.74
Period P&L
$1,682.93
Max Drawdown
-18.0%
Sharpe Ratio
1.73

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
6
Winners / Losers
5 / 1
Best Trade
+3.23%
Worst Trade
-0.36%
Avg Trade Return
+1.87%
Avg Hold Time
3.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$205,593.19
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,682.93
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,682.93
Gross Return
+10.17%
Net Return (after fees)
+10.17%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 19 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 6 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $16,549.82 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 21, 2026 10:30am ET $199.19 82 $16,333.58
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:35am ET $203.27 82 $16,668.14 $16,670.35 +$334.56
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
2 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 9:40am ET $199.24 83 $16,537.27
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 11:05am ET $203.41 83 $16,883.44 $17,016.53 +$346.18
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
3 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 11:25am ET $207.64 81 $16,818.84
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 3:35pm ET $212.00 81 $17,172.17 $17,369.86 +$353.33
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 3:55pm ET $215.01 80 $17,200.80
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET $214.24 80 $17,139.20 $17,308.26 $-61.60
(-0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.7d held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 10:50am ET $209.04 82 $17,141.28
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET $215.79 82 $17,694.78 $17,861.76 +$553.50
(+3.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 12:05pm ET $219.96 81 $17,816.36
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 9:45am ET $224.54 81 $18,187.34 $18,232.74 +$370.98
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $18,232.74
Net Profit/Loss: +$8,232.74
Total Return: +82.33%
Back to Rebel Contraire