Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:22:19

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
50.5 neutral
20d Trend
+69.9%
5d Trend
-8.4%
EMA20 Dist
+0.9%
ATR%
11.0%
Range Pos
31%
Bounce Ratio
1.9×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

43
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
11.5/35
Total Return
16.9/25
Win Rate
7.6/15
Profit Factor
1.0/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 43.8/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 43.4

30-Day Momentum

25
+2.2%
30d Return
57%
Win Rate
14
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 26.1 Conf: 0.98×
Declining (-18 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,482
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
19 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$20,415.01
Current Value
$20,867.43
Period P&L
$452.47
Max Drawdown
-33.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.06

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
14
Winners / Losers
8 / 6
Best Trade
+10.66%
Worst Trade
-15.52%
Avg Trade Return
+0.35%
Avg Hold Time
14.9h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$567,839.53
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$452.47
Net P&L (after fees)
$452.47
Gross Return
+2.22%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.22%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SOXL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 19 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 14 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $20,415.01 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 2:35pm ET $192.36 106 $20,390.16
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $212.87 106 $22,564.22 $22,589.02 +$2,174.06
(+10.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
2 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 10:10am ET $215.85 104 $22,448.41
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 10:30am ET $207.94 104 $21,625.76 $21,766.37 $-822.65
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held
3 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 1:10pm ET $230.91 94 $21,705.39
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 9:50am ET $237.45 94 $22,320.30 $22,381.28 +$614.91
(+2.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.7h held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 9:50am ET $218.51 102 $22,288.03
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 10:00am ET $211.67 102 $21,590.34 $21,683.59 $-697.69
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 10:10am ET $252.56 85 $21,467.60
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 11:15am ET $258.76 85 $21,994.60 $22,210.59 +$527.00
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 11:40am ET $274.69 80 $21,975.20
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 1:50pm ET $280.95 80 $22,476.00 $22,711.39 +$500.80
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.2h held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 2:20pm ET $270.47 83 $22,449.01
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $228.50 83 $18,965.50 $19,227.88 $-3,483.51
(-15.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.2h held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 9:55am ET $208.93 92 $19,221.92
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 10:00am ET $202.06 92 $18,589.53 $18,595.49 $-632.39
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 10:00am ET $222.80 83 $18,492.40
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 10:15am ET $214.91 83 $17,837.94 $17,941.03 $-654.46
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
15m held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 10:20am ET $202.45 88 $17,815.60
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 10:25am ET $207.49 88 $18,258.91 $18,384.34 +$443.31
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 10:50am ET $199.97 91 $18,197.27
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 1:20pm ET $193.95 91 $17,649.46 $17,836.53 $-547.81
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.5h held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 2:00pm ET $240.22 74 $17,776.28
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $264.52 74 $19,574.11 $19,634.36 +$1,797.83
(+10.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET $265.45 73 $19,377.49
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 9:35am ET $272.22 73 $19,872.15 $20,129.02 +$494.66
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 10:40am ET $244.99 82 $20,088.77
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 2:40pm ET $253.99 82 $20,827.18 $20,867.43 +$738.41
(+3.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
4h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $20,867.43
Net Profit/Loss: +$10,867.43
Total Return: +108.67%
Back to Rebel Contraire