Compendium › Rebel Contraire › SPY
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SPY
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-05-22 to present • 4 trades in period

-0.07%
Last Month Return
$15,463.64
Current Value
75%
Win Rate
$15,473.87
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:19:59

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-2.6%
5d Trend
-2.0%
EMA20 Dist
-1.7%
ATR%
1.1%
Range Pos
54%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

55
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
19.8/35
Total Return
14.5/25
Win Rate
9.8/15
Profit Factor
5.1/15
Consistency
7.0/10
Raw Quality 56.1/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 55.2

30-Day Momentum

18
+1.6%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 27.5 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-37 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,482
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
19 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$15,473.87
Current Value
$15,463.64
Period P&L
$-10.20
Max Drawdown
-9.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.21

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
3 / 1
Best Trade
+2.15%
Worst Trade
-3.08%
Avg Trade Return
+0.43%
Avg Hold Time
5.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$119,556.00
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-10.20
Net P&L (after fees)
$-10.20
Gross Return
-0.07%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.07%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SPY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 19 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $15,473.87 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 10:05am ET $734.54 20 $14,690.80 — — —
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $750.30 20 $15,006.00 $15,536.04 +$315.20
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7d held
2 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 9:45am ET $749.39 20 $14,987.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:45am ET $756.39 20 $15,127.80 $15,676.04 +$140.00
(+0.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 11:35am ET $759.78 20 $15,195.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 3:15pm ET $736.35 20 $14,727.00 $15,207.44 $-468.60
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 3:55pm ET $739.12 20 $14,782.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $751.93 20 $15,038.60 $15,463.64 +$256.20
(+1.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6.7d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,463.64
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,463.64
Total Return: +54.64%
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