Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:22:05

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
55.8 neutral
20d Trend
+3.7%
5d Trend
-4.0%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
71%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
9/1

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

25
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.8/35
Total Return
10.1/25
Win Rate
7.7/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
5.7/10
Raw Quality 25.7/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 25.5

30-Day Momentum

6
-14.5%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
8
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 7.1 Conf: 0.81×
Declining (-20 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,482
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
19 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$13,483.28
Current Value
$11,528.84
Period P&L
$-1,954.42
Max Drawdown
-29.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.81

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
2 / 6
Best Trade
+2.16%
Worst Trade
-3.52%
Avg Trade Return
-1.92%
Avg Hold Time
1.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$199,416.08
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,954.42
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,954.42
Gross Return
-14.50%
Net Return (after fees)
-14.50%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 USO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 19 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $13,483.28 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 2:40pm ET $141.06 95 $13,400.70
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $136.09 95 $12,928.55 $13,011.11 $-472.15
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
2 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 11:05am ET $132.85 97 $12,886.45
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 9:30am ET $128.38 97 $12,453.34 $12,578.00 $-433.11
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 10:15am ET $136.98 91 $12,464.73
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 10:30am ET $139.94 91 $12,734.54 $12,847.81 +$269.81
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 11:15am ET $136.26 94 $12,808.44
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 9:30am ET $131.87 94 $12,395.78 $12,435.15 $-412.66
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 10:25am ET $133.05 93 $12,373.66
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 1:20pm ET $135.91 93 $12,639.86 $12,701.35 +$266.20
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9h held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 1:30pm ET $130.86 97 $12,693.54
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 11:00am ET $126.35 97 $12,255.95 $12,263.76 $-437.59
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.5h held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 11:20am ET $119.96 102 $12,235.93
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 10:25am ET $116.25 102 $11,856.99 $11,884.82 $-378.94
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.1h held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 10:25am ET $115.90 102 $11,821.80
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 9:30am ET $112.41 102 $11,465.82 $11,528.84 $-355.98
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.1h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,528.84
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,528.84
Total Return: +15.29%
Back to Rebel Contraire