Compendium › Rebel Contraire › XLF
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XLF
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-05-22 to present • 4 trades in period

+3.25%
Last Month Return
$13,935.48
Current Value
75%
Win Rate
$13,497.39
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:23:04

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
44.4 neutral
20d Trend
-1.7%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.7%
ATR%
1.2%
Range Pos
44%
Bounce Ratio
1.3×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

36
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
7.8/35
Total Return
13.3/25
Win Rate
6.5/15
Profit Factor
2.9/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 37.1/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 36.2

30-Day Momentum

34
+4.3%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
4
Trades
2.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 51.7 Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,482
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
19 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$13,497.39
Current Value
$13,935.48
Period P&L
$438.06
Max Drawdown
-17.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.84

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
3 / 1
Best Trade
+2.18%
Worst Trade
-1.02%
Avg Trade Return
+1.08%
Avg Hold Time
4.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$108,052.64
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$438.06
Net P&L (after fees)
$438.06
Gross Return
+3.25%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.25%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLF Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 19 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $13,497.39 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 9:40am ET $51.44 259 $13,322.96 — — —
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $52.02 259 $13,473.18 $13,507.78 +$150.22
(+1.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held
2 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 9:35am ET $51.80 260 $13,468.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:35am ET $51.27 260 $13,330.20 $13,369.98 $-137.80
(-1.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:50am ET $51.37 260 $13,354.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $52.40 260 $13,624.00 $13,639.08 +$269.10
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 9:35am ET $52.28 260 $13,591.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 10:55am ET $53.42 260 $13,887.90 $13,935.48 +$296.40
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,935.48
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,935.48
Total Return: +39.35%
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