Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:26:20

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

28
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
3.0/35
Total Return
11.9/25
Win Rate
7.5/15
Profit Factor
1.3/15
Consistency
5.3/10
Raw Quality 28.9/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 28.5

30-Day Momentum

31
+4.9%
30d Return
71%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 40.4 Conf: 0.78×
Steady (+3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,482
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
19 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$12,294.05
Current Value
$12,608.28
Period P&L
$314.23
Max Drawdown
-30.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.29

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
7
Winners / Losers
5 / 2
Best Trade
+2.61%
Worst Trade
-3.25%
Avg Trade Return
+0.71%
Avg Hold Time
1.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$172,137.75
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$314.23
Net P&L (after fees)
$314.23
Gross Return
+2.56%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.56%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 19 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 7 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $12,294.05 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 11:30am ET $176.33 68 $11,990.44
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 9:30am ET $179.91 68 $12,233.88 $12,261.41 +$243.44
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
2 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 11:10am ET $184.89 66 $12,202.74
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 9:30am ET $189.46 66 $12,504.36 $12,563.03 +$301.62
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 9:55am ET $192.74 65 $12,528.10
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 9:45am ET $196.74 65 $12,788.10 $12,823.03 +$260.00
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:45am ET $194.86 65 $12,665.90
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $188.53 65 $12,254.45 $12,411.58 $-411.45
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 11:30am ET $185.56 66 $12,246.96
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 11:25am ET $179.99 66 $11,879.34 $12,043.96 $-367.62
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 11:40am ET $177.95 67 $11,922.32
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 1:45pm ET $181.60 67 $12,167.20 $12,288.84 +$244.88
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 2:00pm ET $185.11 66 $12,217.26
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $189.95 66 $12,536.70 $12,608.28 +$319.44
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,608.28
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,608.28
Total Return: +26.08%
Back to Rebel Contraire