Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:28:08

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

28
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
3.0/35
Total Return
11.9/25
Win Rate
7.5/15
Profit Factor
1.3/15
Consistency
5.3/10
Raw Quality 28.9/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 28.5

30-Day Momentum

31
+4.9%
30d Return
71%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 40.4 Conf: 0.78×
Steady (+3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
27,123
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-06-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
264 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$9,290.37
Current Value
$12,608.28
Period P&L
$3,317.91
Max Drawdown
-30.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.20

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
72
Winners / Losers
49 / 23
Best Trade
+5.66%
Worst Trade
-3.37%
Avg Trade Return
+0.44%
Avg Hold Time
3.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,488,687.19
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,317.91
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,317.91
Gross Return
+35.71%
Net Return (after fees)
+35.71%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 264 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 72 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $9,290.37 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2025 10:40am ET $121.42 77 $9,348.96
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2025 9:30am ET $119.63 77 $9,211.13 $9,239.57 $-137.83
(-1.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2025 12:55pm ET $123.56 74 $9,143.07
🔴 SELL Jun 27, 2025 10:00am ET $126.11 74 $9,331.77 $9,428.27 +$188.70
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2025 12:20pm ET $126.28 74 $9,344.35
🔴 SELL Jul 3, 2025 11:40am ET $128.86 74 $9,535.27 $9,619.19 +$190.92
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2025 3:25pm ET $127.26 75 $9,544.50
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2025 9:30am ET $127.25 75 $9,543.75 $9,618.44 $-0.75
(-0.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2025 9:55am ET $129.10 74 $9,553.03
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2025 9:30am ET $130.60 74 $9,664.22 $9,729.63 +$111.19
(+1.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2025 9:30am ET $130.16 74 $9,631.47
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2025 9:30am ET $131.59 74 $9,737.66 $9,835.82 +$106.19
(+1.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2025 10:20am ET $133.06 73 $9,713.38
🔴 SELL Aug 1, 2025 9:40am ET $128.58 73 $9,386.34 $9,508.78 $-327.04
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2025 11:10am ET $130.69 72 $9,409.68
🔴 SELL Aug 11, 2025 9:30am ET $132.54 72 $9,542.52 $9,641.62 +$132.84
(+1.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2025 2:30pm ET $133.95 71 $9,510.10
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2025 9:30am ET $133.15 71 $9,453.65 $9,585.17 $-56.44
(-0.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2025 10:20am ET $132.70 72 $9,554.40
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2025 9:50am ET $128.59 72 $9,258.12 $9,288.89 $-296.28
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.5h held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2025 11:05am ET $129.66 71 $9,205.51
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2025 11:05am ET $131.34 71 $9,325.32 $9,408.70 +$119.81
(+1.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2025 12:20pm ET $131.80 71 $9,357.62
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2025 9:30am ET $128.63 71 $9,132.38 $9,183.46 $-225.25
(-2.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2025 11:00am ET $130.71 70 $9,149.70
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2025 11:00am ET $132.73 70 $9,291.10 $9,324.86 +$141.40
(+1.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2025 11:40am ET $132.08 70 $9,245.25
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2025 9:30am ET $135.32 70 $9,472.40 $9,552.01 +$227.15
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.8h held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2025 11:45am ET $135.83 70 $9,508.10
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2025 11:45am ET $136.21 70 $9,534.35 $9,578.26 +$26.25
(+0.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
16 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2025 2:40pm ET $134.77 71 $9,568.32
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2025 9:30am ET $137.54 71 $9,765.65 $9,775.59 +$197.33
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
18.8h held
17 🟢 BUY Sep 19, 2025 11:10am ET $138.38 70 $9,686.60
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2025 12:55pm ET $141.20 70 $9,883.65 $9,972.64 +$197.05
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held
18 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2025 1:00pm ET $140.48 70 $9,833.60
🔴 SELL Sep 29, 2025 9:30am ET $140.54 70 $9,837.80 $9,976.84 +$4.20
(+0.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
19 🟢 BUY Sep 30, 2025 11:20am ET $140.57 70 $9,839.90
🔴 SELL Oct 2, 2025 9:30am ET $143.49 70 $10,044.30 $10,181.24 +$204.40
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
20 🟢 BUY Oct 3, 2025 10:00am ET $143.24 71 $10,170.04
🔴 SELL Oct 8, 2025 10:00am ET $144.38 71 $10,250.98 $10,262.18 +$80.94
(+0.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
21 🟢 BUY Oct 9, 2025 10:35am ET $144.65 70 $10,125.15
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 3:25pm ET $140.16 70 $9,811.20 $9,948.23 $-313.95
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
22 🟢 BUY Oct 14, 2025 9:35am ET $139.73 71 $9,920.83
🔴 SELL Oct 15, 2025 9:50am ET $142.55 71 $10,121.05 $10,148.45 +$200.22
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
23 🟢 BUY Oct 16, 2025 10:55am ET $143.23 70 $10,026.10
🔴 SELL Oct 21, 2025 10:55am ET $144.30 70 $10,100.65 $10,223.00 +$74.55
(+0.7%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
24 🟢 BUY Oct 22, 2025 11:15am ET $142.84 71 $10,141.64
🔴 SELL Oct 24, 2025 9:30am ET $146.47 71 $10,399.02 $10,480.37 +$257.38
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
25 🟢 BUY Oct 27, 2025 10:55am ET $149.00 70 $10,429.65
🔴 SELL Oct 29, 2025 9:30am ET $152.39 70 $10,667.32 $10,718.04 +$237.67
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
26 🟢 BUY Oct 30, 2025 10:05am ET $151.28 70 $10,589.25
🔴 SELL Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET $147.62 70 $10,333.05 $10,461.84 $-256.20
(-2.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
27 🟢 BUY Nov 5, 2025 11:10am ET $147.70 70 $10,338.65
🔴 SELL Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET $143.24 70 $10,026.80 $10,149.99 $-311.85
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
28 🟢 BUY Nov 10, 2025 10:45am ET $147.07 69 $10,147.49
🔴 SELL Nov 13, 2025 1:35pm ET $142.64 69 $9,842.16 $9,844.67 $-305.33
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
29 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 2:05pm ET $144.25 68 $9,809.00
🔴 SELL Nov 18, 2025 9:45am ET $139.83 68 $9,508.10 $9,543.77 $-300.90
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
30 🟢 BUY Nov 19, 2025 10:55am ET $140.71 67 $9,427.24
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET $143.61 67 $9,621.54 $9,738.07 +$194.30
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.6h held
31 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 10:35am ET $133.87 72 $9,638.64
🔴 SELL Nov 21, 2025 11:55am ET $137.04 72 $9,866.52 $9,965.95 +$227.88
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held
32 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2025 11:55am ET $139.77 71 $9,923.67
🔴 SELL Nov 28, 2025 10:40am ET $142.57 71 $10,122.47 $10,164.75 +$198.80
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
33 🟢 BUY Dec 1, 2025 2:25pm ET $142.98 71 $10,151.58
🔴 SELL Dec 5, 2025 9:30am ET $146.44 71 $10,397.24 $10,410.41 +$245.66
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
34 🟢 BUY Dec 8, 2025 10:15am ET $147.70 70 $10,339.00
🔴 SELL Dec 15, 2025 9:30am ET $144.17 70 $10,091.90 $10,163.31 $-247.10
(-2.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held
35 🟢 BUY Dec 16, 2025 10:10am ET $142.37 71 $10,108.27
🔴 SELL Dec 22, 2025 9:30am ET $145.16 71 $10,306.36 $10,361.40 +$198.09
(+2.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
36 🟢 BUY Dec 23, 2025 9:55am ET $144.75 71 $10,277.25
🔴 SELL Dec 29, 2025 9:30am ET $145.68 71 $10,343.28 $10,427.43 +$66.03
(+0.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
37 🟢 BUY Dec 30, 2025 9:40am ET $145.60 71 $10,337.60
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET $145.70 71 $10,344.70 $10,434.53 +$7.10
(+0.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
38 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 10:40am ET $145.96 71 $10,363.16
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET $146.02 71 $10,367.42 $10,438.79 +$4.26
(+0.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
39 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 9:50am ET $146.80 71 $10,422.45
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $143.83 71 $10,211.93 $10,228.27 $-210.51
(-2.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held
40 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 11:05am ET $144.06 71 $10,228.26
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 11:05am ET $146.19 71 $10,379.14 $10,379.15 +$150.88
(+1.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
41 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 12:05pm ET $148.43 69 $10,241.67
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 10:45am ET $143.88 69 $9,927.72 $10,065.20 $-313.95
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
42 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 11:00am ET $145.57 69 $10,044.33
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 12:30pm ET $141.09 69 $9,734.87 $9,755.73 $-309.46
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held
43 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 12:30pm ET $136.83 71 $9,714.93
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 9:45am ET $139.58 71 $9,910.18 $9,950.98 +$195.25
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
44 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 12:25pm ET $143.59 69 $9,907.71
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET $143.56 69 $9,905.64 $9,948.91 $-2.07
(-0.0%)
📅 Sim Ended
1d held
45 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:50am ET $138.17 72 $9,948.24
🔴 SELL Feb 18, 2026 10:05am ET $141.23 72 $10,168.56 $10,169.23 +$220.32
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
46 🟢 BUY Feb 19, 2026 11:50am ET $139.68 72 $10,056.97
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2026 11:50am ET $140.50 72 $10,116.00 $10,228.26 +$59.03
(+0.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
47 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 1:25pm ET $142.99 71 $10,152.29
🔴 SELL Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET $138.34 71 $9,821.79 $9,897.76 $-330.50
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
48 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 10:35am ET $138.18 71 $9,811.13
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 10:00am ET $141.20 71 $10,025.20 $10,111.82 +$214.06
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
49 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 10:50am ET $138.80 72 $9,993.60
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2026 11:50am ET $140.01 72 $10,081.08 $10,199.30 +$87.48
(+0.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
50 🟢 BUY Mar 12, 2026 1:55pm ET $137.96 73 $10,071.08
🔴 SELL Mar 17, 2026 1:55pm ET $139.68 73 $10,196.28 $10,324.49 +$125.19
(+1.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
51 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 2:15pm ET $139.30 74 $10,308.20
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 2:40pm ET $135.07 74 $9,995.18 $10,011.47 $-313.02
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
52 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 3:20pm ET $137.42 72 $9,894.24
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 1:50pm ET $133.14 72 $9,586.40 $9,703.63 $-307.84
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
53 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 2:10pm ET $129.87 74 $9,610.01
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 2:50pm ET $132.49 74 $9,804.26 $9,897.88 +$194.25
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
54 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 2:55pm ET $134.61 73 $9,826.53
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 2:55pm ET $136.68 73 $9,978.00 $10,049.35 +$151.47
(+1.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
55 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 2:55pm ET $135.50 74 $10,027.00
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $143.16 74 $10,594.21 $10,616.56 +$567.21
(+5.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
18.6h held
56 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET $140.95 75 $10,571.25
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 11:00am ET $143.83 75 $10,787.25 $10,832.56 +$216.00
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
57 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 11:05am ET $146.45 73 $10,690.85
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 12:20pm ET $149.42 73 $10,907.66 $11,049.37 +$216.81
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
58 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 12:35pm ET $151.35 73 $11,048.91
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:35am ET $154.41 73 $11,272.29 $11,272.75 +$223.38
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
21h held
59 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 11:50am ET $153.51 73 $11,205.87
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 10:25am ET $156.73 73 $11,441.29 $11,508.17 +$235.42
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
60 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 11:45am ET $157.38 73 $11,488.74
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 11:45am ET $156.54 73 $11,427.42 $11,446.85 $-61.32
(-0.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
61 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 12:35pm ET $157.82 72 $11,362.68
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:35am ET $161.19 72 $11,605.68 $11,689.85 +$243.00
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
62 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 11:00am ET $162.49 71 $11,536.79
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 1:15pm ET $165.79 71 $11,771.09 $11,924.15 +$234.30
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
63 🟢 BUY May 6, 2026 2:50pm ET $169.16 70 $11,841.12
🔴 SELL May 8, 2026 9:45am ET $172.78 70 $12,094.60 $12,177.63 +$253.48
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
64 🟢 BUY May 11, 2026 9:55am ET $176.35 69 $12,168.15
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 11:15am ET $179.91 69 $12,413.79 $12,423.27 +$245.64
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held
65 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 11:50am ET $176.71 70 $12,369.70
🔴 SELL May 19, 2026 10:20am ET $170.92 70 $11,964.40 $12,017.97 $-405.30
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
66 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 11:30am ET $176.33 68 $11,990.44
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 9:30am ET $179.91 68 $12,233.88 $12,261.41 +$243.44
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
67 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 11:10am ET $184.89 66 $12,202.74
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 9:30am ET $189.46 66 $12,504.36 $12,563.03 +$301.62
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
68 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 9:55am ET $192.74 65 $12,528.10
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 9:45am ET $196.74 65 $12,788.10 $12,823.03 +$260.00
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held
69 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:45am ET $194.86 65 $12,665.90
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $188.53 65 $12,254.45 $12,411.58 $-411.45
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
70 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 11:30am ET $185.56 66 $12,246.96
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 11:25am ET $179.99 66 $11,879.34 $12,043.96 $-367.62
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held
71 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 11:40am ET $177.95 67 $11,922.32
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 1:45pm ET $181.60 67 $12,167.20 $12,288.84 +$244.88
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
72 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 2:00pm ET $185.11 66 $12,217.26
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $189.95 66 $12,536.70 $12,608.28 +$319.44
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,608.28
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,608.28
Total Return: +26.08%
Back to Rebel Contraire